Cindy in the making? Pretty ferocious.....

[Nimbus]

The Canadian 12 panel has a low over Texas and a high over Florida early next week.

That should steer the moisture up toward the northwest gulf coastal area. Louisiana is not out of the woods though.

Even if this passes over only the northern part of the Yucatan that would keep it from developing too fast.

[Air Force Met]

Local mets have this disturbance moving toward the upper Texas (Please we need the rain but NO hurricane) or the SW La. coastline.

The ridge over texas is going to make it difficult for anything to make it to the upper texas coast, imo. lower texas coast maybe, but until it moves on, which may not happen until october, it will be difficult.

Take a look at the model runs. The ridge is not there in a couple of days. The 700/500mb break in the ridge is setting up over Texas.

The ridge is going to be setting up over Florida...which is perfect for western GOM activity.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpres ... 0_090m.gif

Ummm.. help a novice out, please. Is this the same type of ridge that we do NOT want over florida? Like last year's set up? Sorry if that is a stupid question

No. This type of ridge dries you out and keeps tropical moisture away. After a couple of months, it has you begging for rain

[Johnny]

Hey AFM, what are your thoughts on the Caribbean wave as far as strengthening and where it may end up? Thanks.

[cycloneye]

W-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 9N79W NNE TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE MOVING W 15-20 KT. THIS CONTINUES TO BE A
POWERFUL WAVE WITH 25 KT WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND
A SURFACE REFLECTION AS NOTED BY THE LATEST QUIKSCAT. THE WAVE
IS MOVING BENEATH A MID/UPPER RIDGE WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
CONVECTION TO REFORM NEAR THE WAVE AXIS THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION THE WAVE IS APPROACHING A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER IN THE SW CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN
THE ITCZ A DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN INDICATE THAT THERE IS A STRONG MID-LEVEL
PERTURBATION ASSOCIATED WITH THESE TWO FEATURES WITH S TO SW
WINDS AT 700 MB IN THE SRN CARIBBEAN AND UP TO 50 KT SE WINDS
OBSERVED IN AT KINGSTON. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
FOR DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND THE PRE-EXISTING DISTURBANCE. THE WAVE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER YUCATAN BY MON SPREADING HEAVY RAIN OVER
THE AREA.


The folks at NHC are watching it closely as you can read from the discussion at 2:05 PM.

[dhweather]

Luis - it does appear to have their full attention. Thanks for posting the update!

[wxman57]

Here's a new GARP image, not much there now:

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/carib3.gif">

[Hurricaneman]

Just a wave with MLC

[HouTXmetro]

Just a wave with MLC

AWWW MANNNN

[dixiebreeze]

W-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 9N79W NNE TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE MOVING W 15-20 KT. THIS CONTINUES TO BE A
POWERFUL WAVE WITH 25 KT WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND
A SURFACE REFLECTION AS NOTED BY THE LATEST QUIKSCAT. THE WAVE
IS MOVING BENEATH A MID/UPPER RIDGE WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
CONVECTION TO REFORM NEAR THE WAVE AXIS THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION THE WAVE IS APPROACHING A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER IN THE SW CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN
THE ITCZ A DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN INDICATE THAT THERE IS A STRONG MID-LEVEL
PERTURBATION ASSOCIATED WITH THESE TWO FEATURES WITH S TO SW
WINDS AT 700 MB IN THE SRN CARIBBEAN AND UP TO 50 KT SE WINDS
OBSERVED IN AT KINGSTON. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
FOR DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND THE PRE-EXISTING DISTURBANCE. THE WAVE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER YUCATAN BY MON SPREADING HEAVY RAIN OVER
THE AREA.


The folks at NHC are watching it closely as you can read from the discussion at 2:05 PM.

Thanks Luis. They're also still watching it closely at 5:30 p.m. May not look like much now, but watch out this weekend, I'm thinking.