NHC's TWD

[rsdoug1981]

Here's an excerpt from today's NHC tropical weather discussion...

W-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 9N79W NNE TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE MOVING W 15-20 KT. THIS CONTINUES TO BE A
POWERFUL WAVE WITH 25 KT WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND
A SURFACE REFLECTION AS NOTED BY THE LATEST QUIKSCAT. THE WAVE
IS MOVING BENEATH A MID/UPPER RIDGE WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
CONVECTION TO REFORM NEAR THE WAVE AXIS THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION THE WAVE IS APPROACHING A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER IN THE SW CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN
THE ITCZ A DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN INDICATE THAT THERE IS A STRONG MID-LEVEL
PERTURBATION ASSOCIATED WITH THESE TWO FEATURES WITH S TO SW
WINDS AT 700 MB IN THE SRN CARIBBEAN AND UP TO 50 KT SE WINDS
OBSERVED IN AT KINGSTON. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
FOR DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND THE PRE-EXISTING DISTURBANCE. THE WAVE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER YUCATAN BY MON SPREADING HEAVY RAIN OVER
THE AREA.

[HURAKAN]

I was going to post the same, I think we have more than hope in this system! Everything seems to be coming together for some kind of development over the next 48 to 72 hours.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

A SURFACE REFLECTION AS NOTED BY THE LATEST QUIKSCAT.

Sorry to be a noobie, but can anyone say a few words on what a surface reflection is, and perhaps its significance?

WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
CONVECTION TO REFORM NEAR THE WAVE AXIS THIS AFTERNOON.

And would the wave axis be the line of storms itself? or perhaps its midpoint?

Thanks in advance!

[wxman57]

A SURFACE REFLECTION AS NOTED BY THE LATEST QUIKSCAT.

Sorry to be a noobie, but can anyone say a few words on what a surface reflection is, and perhaps its significance?

WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
CONVECTION TO REFORM NEAR THE WAVE AXIS THIS AFTERNOON.

And would the wave axis be the line of storms itself? or perhaps its midpoint?

Thanks in advance!

The "surface reflection" noted on Quickscat just means that quickscat shows a bend in the wind flow at the surface. Basically, that this is just a tropical wave with wind from the southeast on the east side and northeast on the west side.

The wave has a midpoint - it's "axis". It's possible that thunderstorms may begin forming near this midpoint of the wave, an indication that the wave is becoming better organized.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

Thank you very much for such an informative reply Exactly what I was looking for!