Caribbean circulation

[boca]

It looks like the circulation center is just SW of Jamaica moving WNW towards the Yucatan channel like Floybuster said on his video. Good call.

[Anonymous]

Thanks...but it needs more organization. Certianly sticking around though.

[gatorcane]

Expect increase chances of rainfall in S. Florida and the FL Keys Sun. and Mon as the wave moves to the south of straits....not that we need more rain!

[wxman57]

There is no circulation center at the surface. It's just a moderate tropical wave. Surface winds are from the E-SE from the Yucatan Peninsula, to south of Jamaica, to south of Puerto Rico. I can see just a slight bend in the winds indicating the wave axis approaching 80W.

[boca]

Boca_Chris its too far south to effect us look at the sat. Unless it spreads out to the north more.

[boca]

Your right but its a mid level circulation though not yet to the surface.

[wxman57]

Your right but its a mid level circulation though not yet to the surface.

Right, not a trace of an LLC.

[gatorcane]

Boca_Chris its too far south to effect us look at the sat. Unless it spreads out to the north more

.

My thinking is that it will bring just enough convergence over S. Florida to increase the rain chances from typical 30%-40% to around 60%...right now it's being blocked by a High pressure system centered between the Straits and the lower Bahamas...but that is expected to lift north over the next day or so...and that will open the door to an increased E and SE windflow (as opposed to the abnormal west windflow we've been seeing over the past couple of days) and more Atlantic showers...

[corpusbreeze]

just think if we had a hurricane far out in the Atlantic we would hardly be talking about this system. We need a real fix!

[gatorcane]

corpus yes I agree with you, we are all very bored an impatient here!

[dhweather]

This little poorly organized wave is our only glimmer of hope for the
forseeable future. SNIFF!!!!

[gatorcane]

I think starting around mid August the Atlantic will really light up....there's no reason why it wouldn't...the Atlantic shear will really begin to relax in July and into August

[skysummit]

just think if we had a hurricane far out in the Atlantic we would hardly be talking about this system. We need a real fix!

Highly correct about this. I guess most of us are just getting really excited.

[gatorcane]

satellite pics tonight are very impressive with our Caribbean system. A definite circulation (although not at the surface yet) and convection is beginning to develop...I was skeptical earlier but I think this will be a depression tomorrow.

[HURAKAN]

I think starting around mid August the Atlantic will really light up....there's no reason why it wouldn't...the Atlantic shear will really begin to relax in July and into August

I think so, since is just the 1st day of July and we are already talking about a possible CV system, then in August probably every wave will be a real threat!

[dhweather]

satellite pics tonight are very impressive with our Caribbean system. A definite circulation (although not at the surface yet) and convection is beginning to develop...I was skeptical earlier but I think this will be a depression tomorrow.

I won't go that far with it, but it is doing better tonight than it did most
of today.

[cycloneye]

If convection starts to consolidate in an area and persist also a surface low develops then something can form as the upper conditions aloft turn more favorable.Let's see in the morning how it looks.

[wxman57]

I think y'all would have different opinions about development if you had to work M-F this past week then 12-hour shifts this weekend (until the system moves inland), then all next week after the storm moves inland. I already have to get up at 5:30am for 3 hours of work tomorrow morning plus participate in daily 10am and 3:45 pm conference calls 7 days a week. It would be just fine with me if this wave disappeared!

[dhweather]

I think y'all would have different opinions about development if you had to work M-F this past week then 12-hour shifts this weekend (until the system moves inland), then all next week after the storm moves inland. I already have to get up at 5:30am for 3 hours of work tomorrow morning plus participate in daily 10am and 3:45 pm conference calls 7 days a week. It would be just fine with me if this wave disappeared!

Ahh, you would put up with it for the rain!

[skysummit]

I think y'all would have different opinions about development if you had to work M-F this past week then 12-hour shifts this weekend (until the system moves inland), then all next week after the storm moves inland. I already have to get up at 5:30am for 3 hours of work tomorrow morning plus participate in daily 10am and 3:45 pm conference calls 7 days a week. It would be just fine with me if this wave disappeared!

I'm no met, but tropical systems give me extremely long hours also. Bring on the OT!!!!