00Z GFS - moisture headed to north central GOM in 3-4 days

[dhweather]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

As of this minute, only 66 hours out has been computed - the rest will finish running in 60-90 minutes.

But I'm gonna go hit they hay. Hope it doesn't hit back!

[mobilebay]

Really nothing new! The GFS has not liked this system from the start. Looks like it pretty much washes it out over the GOM!

[skysummit]

That's pretty much all the CBS local met said.....increase in tropical moisture by early next week as a tropical wave approaches....no mention of development yet.

[mobilebay]

To tell you the truth this system does not have much model support at all. When I look at models that I trust on developing Cyclones, I look at the GFS, NOGAPS,CMC respectively. NONE of those three do anything with this system, this is including the 00Z run which I've just looked at. The only model I see developing this system is the ETA/NAM, which of all models is the least trusted (at least in my book). I've seen development with no model support, but you would like to see at least one of the Big three jump on it before going nuts about this system. JMHO

On a side note... I've noticed that the models have shifted further west with the moisture spreading into Texas, and Southwest Louisiana.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

A ULL over the Yact is backing west-southwestward. While a ULL over the western tip of Cuba is slowly backing to the west-northwestward. The energy that was to the south of 15 north has spread just to the west of Jamaica. This is a very interesting because the energy over the area is starting to form over one area(West of Jamaica around 17 north/77 to 80 west.) As the Ull over western Cuba backs away to the west-northwest the tropical wave/distrabance should form a outflow Jet.

Remember Tropical storm Bill, on how it had a ULL to its northwest of it. This energy is becoming more oreganized with an a box...ULLs moving away. Then this will slowly develop as it moves into the Gulf.

This is a theory on what could happen.

[southerngale]

On a side note... I've noticed that the models have shifted further west with the moisture spreading into Texas, and Southwest Louisiana.

Awesome! Well, I hope that verifies.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif




PS I don't think so...But if things work out a weak tropical storm.


More likely
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif


If a low forms south of where I think...
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
Not likely but who knows.


Here is one...I know I know 1 in a billion chance.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

[corpusbreeze]

what ever the models say, the system is looking better tonight.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yes the energy is coming together with in one area. The ULL to the northwest is moving away slowly to the northwest/west-northwest. Which should form a outflow jet over it. I'm now thinking there is a fair chance this could pop.

[MWatkins]

It is...after all...early July...which is still climatologically a dead time in terms of tropical development in the Atlantic. It is still my belief that there needs to be a compelling argument for development to at least off-set the disadvantage of climo. Despite the overall look of the cloud pattern as of now...(which would concern the heck out of me if this were late Sep/early Oct btw) I think the smart $ is against significant development.

I have...of course...been wrong before.

MW

PS: Please vote in the poll and let me know what I should do with my spare time:
http://www.tropicalupdate.com

[Guest]

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/MM5_0z/mm572.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Remember Mw, That climo is only accurate back intill 1960 when the first satellite went up. In gets way less accurate the more back you go. Also you have to think about hurricane history is millions of years. In which case. That tropcal cyclone that formed over the south Atlatnic last March(Also tropical storm that formed there in January)...Also that system that formed 2003 in April.

Depressions forming over the Eastern Atlantic over the last 5 years before July.

Tropical storms forming an December.

South Atlatnic hurricanes.

Those are not suppose to happen Mw.

But a system forming over the Western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico is normal(Normal for a July storm once every 2 years) In is the place for development. At least on our little Climo record going back a short time.


So development is with in Climo...Also Watch the heat/energy build into the area with that upper low moving off to the west-northwest. Remember tropical storm Bill. Not saying it is fact but I would watch it.

[Hurricaneman]

Matt could be right. There's a lot of latent heat out there

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/MM5_0z/mm572.html

Yes I agree the models are some what hinting at it...Not soildly but hinting none the less.

[MWatkins]

Remember Mw, That climo is only accurate back intill 1960 when the first satellite went up. In gets way less accurate the more back you go. Also you have to think about hurricane history is millions of years. In which case. That tropcal cyclone that formed over the south Atlatnic last March(Also tropical storm that formed there in January)...Also that system that formed 2003 in April.

Depressions forming over the Eastern Atlantic over the last 5 years before July.

Tropical storms forming an December.

South Atlatnic hurricanes.

Those are not suppose to happen Mw.

But a system forming over the Western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico is normal(Normal for a July storm once every 2 years) In is the place for development. At least on our little Climo record going back a short time.


So development is with in Climo...Also Watch the heat/energy build into the area with that upper low moving off to the west-northwest. Remember tropical storm Bill. Not saying it is fact but I would watch it.

Just because those things have happened in the past has no bearing on the present situation, IMHO.

July...in general is not a favorable month for development even going back to 1890.

Had you given me an argument about elevated SST's I would have listened...that is an overwhelming climatological reason to buck the overall trend.

But given the GFS isn't too bullish about the system...and that the other globals arent exaxtly going bananas...again...I would put my $ against significant development.

But...as I stated before...I have been wrong before. Dang it...I want a QUIET holiday weekend.

MW

PS: Please vote in the poll and let me know what I should do with my spare time:
http://www.tropicalupdate.com

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I find watching storms something I'm interested in. In went to do for the rest of my life.

Like I said earlier watch that ULL over western Cuba back away. While the energy starts coming together just west of Jamaica. The Gfs/Cmc was forecasting at there 950 to 925 millibar levels last night that this energy would form in track to the west-northwest or nrothwest. The Gfs is tracking what there is into the Yact. But this could just as easy falling the front side of the ULL Into the Gulf. The MM5 run that Fred posted is what I'm talking about.

Mw, You are most likely right on the money...The chances of a July cyclone is once every 2 years on the norm. In maybe even less chance then June.

[Hurricaneman]

Climatology is most times what you would look at, but sometimes the pattern is different from climatology

[corpusbreeze]

Less to no development means more rain down the road for Texas.

[HouTXmetro]

Well from what I have been reading it appears the models are hinting at a LA/MS/AL event. If that verifies the drought continues for Texas

[skysummit]

Well from what I have been reading it appears the models are hinting at a LA/MS/AL event. If that verifies the drought continues for Texas

Then there's always the possiblity it could be a Carolinas event!