Broad low develops with Mid Atlantic Wave

[cycloneye]

LARGE AMPLITUDE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE TILTED ALONG
6N41W 14N44W 21N44W MOVING W 10-15 KT. VISIBLE IMAGERY AND AN
1800 UTC OBSERVATION FROM SHIP PBKY INDICATE THAT BROAD LOW PRES
HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 9N43W WITH A MINIMUM PRES
OF 1010 MB. THE FORMATION OF THE LOW IS NOT YET INDICATIVE OF
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT SINCE THE CIRCULATION IS STILL QUITE
BROAD...THERE IS ESSENTIALLY NO DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER...AND A FEW OTHER VORT MAXES ARE STILL BEING OBSERVED
PRIMARILY WITHIN THE TRAILING ITCZ. THE GFS AND UKMET MODELS
INTERMITTENTLY PRESCRIBE TO A LOW ALONG THE WAVE AS IT NEARS THE
LESSER ANTILLES BUT NONE OF THE GUIDANCE LATCHES ON TO A
CONSOLIDATED SFC CIRCULATION. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE
WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES SUN EVENING WITH
EPISODES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM 4N-14N BETWEEN 36W-46W.

The above is the discussion from TPC at 8:05 PM.

Regardless of what the wave does in terms of development rain will be the main issue for the Lesser Antilles islands early next week and later for Puerto Rico.

[dhweather]

It certainly seems that you will see a lot of rain next week from this.

[Hurricaneman]

It looks like it has a chance, but it is a broad low right now

[cycloneye]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41041

The bouy located in the mid atlantic has in the data this morning winds sustained at 21kts and gusts of 25kts from the east.However pressures are not falling.

[OURAGAN]

the surface low appears to be at 11N/43W.
the convection is begining to firing since last night.
May be something to watch.

THE SURFACE LOW CENTER NEAR 9N43W APPEARED TO BE CLOSER TO 11N43W
AT 02/0600 UTC. THE WAVE ALSO APPEARED TO BE MORE ALONG 43W MORE
THAN ANYTHING. THESE ARE THE POSITIONS FOR THE 02/0600 UTC MAP.
THE CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SUCH A
CONVINCING REASON TO PUT THE WAY ALONG 43W AND NOT TO MOVE IT
TOWARD 47W/48W IF WE WERE TO FOLLOW THE 02/0000 UTC MAP
POSITION. WHATEVER REMAINS OF THE 9N43W LOW CENTER REALLY
APPEARS TO BE CLOSER TO 11N43W IF ANYTHING. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EAST OF THIS
WAVE FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 39W AND 42W.

[cycloneye]

Certainly convection has increased a bit since last night with the wave.Look at the extreme right of this pic.