Caribbean circulation

#21 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Jul 01, 2005 10:21 pm

it's definitely coming together quickly tonight but Luis is right...let's wait and see how it looks when we wake up...I have a feeling we will see a blow up of convection at tropical system typically get in the late night and early morning hours ....

#22 Postby **wxman57** » Fri Jul 01, 2005 10:22 pm

skysummit wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I think y'all would have different opinions about development if you had to work M-F this past week then 12-hour shifts this weekend (until the system moves inland), then all next week after the storm moves inland. I already have to get up at 5:30am for 3 hours of work tomorrow morning plus participate in daily 10am and 3:45 pm conference calls 7 days a week. It would be just fine with me if this wave disappeared!

I'm no met, but tropical systems give me extremely long hours also. Bring on the OT!!!!

I don't get overtime, nor do I usually have time to take vacation or comp time. I'd rather have a couple of days off with no development. :-(

#23 Postby **skysummit** » Fri Jul 01, 2005 10:23 pm

wxman57 wrote:
skysummit wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I think y'all would have different opinions about development if you had to work M-F this past week then 12-hour shifts this weekend (until the system moves inland), then all next week after the storm moves inland. I already have to get up at 5:30am for 3 hours of work tomorrow morning plus participate in daily 10am and 3:45 pm conference calls 7 days a week. It would be just fine with me if this wave disappeared!

I'm no met, but tropical systems give me extremely long hours also. Bring on the OT!!!!

I don't get overtime, nor do I usually have time to take vacation or comp timel.

Oh...that's not right then :roll:

At least I get the OT! I have to admit though. When too many hours start rolling in, I'd much rather sit at home and relax. :wink:

#24 Postby **wxman57** » Fri Jul 01, 2005 10:28 pm

As you can see in the image below (sorry about the crappy 256-color satellite, as I'm at home now), there is nothing at all going on at the surface over the central and NW Caribbean. Just straight E-SE flow all the way across and relatively high pressures:

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/carib4.gif">

#25 Postby **skysummit** » Fri Jul 01, 2005 10:34 pm

Darn. I think we need more buoys

TS Zack · #26 Postby **TS Zack** » Fri Jul 01, 2005 10:37 pm

Its clear we have no Surface Circulation from the GARP. Now LLC can form with any burst of convection and we are beginning to see covection fire in a more confined area. We will see by the morning.

You have to take a vacation! LOL I am leaving tomorrow for Grand Isle and might be getting evacuated by the 4th.. LOL If a storm gets in the Gulf we will be evacuated fairly quickly.

#27 Postby **skysummit** » Fri Jul 01, 2005 10:40 pm

TS Zack wrote:I am leaving tomorrow for Grand Isle and might be getting evacuated by the 4th.. LOL If a storm gets in the Gulf we will be evacuated fairly quickly.

Grand Isle? Are you camping or staying in one of the motels? You can bet if a system develops in the central Gulf and is a threat to us, you'll be heading right back up Hwy 1 pretty darn quick!

#28 Postby **wxman57** » Fri Jul 01, 2005 10:41 pm

TS Zack wrote:Its clear we have no Surface Circulation from the GARP. Now LLC can form with any burst of convection and we are beginning to see covection fire in a more confined area. We will see by the morning.

You have to take a vacation! LOL I am leaving tomorrow for Grand Isle and might be getting evacuated by the 4th.. LOL If a storm gets in the Gulf we will be evacuated fairly quickly.

Yep, the key will be a persistent single "blob" of convection. It must last a good 24 hours for the LLC to get going. I'll be chanting "dissipate!, dissipate!, dissipate!" all weekend, though. ;-)

No time for a vacation. Started preparing for the hurricane season in February and have been trying to take a single day off since then. I need to go to the dentist (had to cancel my cleaning appointment last November), the doctor, and to get the oil changed in my car.

TS Zack · #29 Postby **TS Zack** » Fri Jul 01, 2005 10:45 pm

I will be able to get all the information on my cell phone and phone calls to Mike Naso(Floydbuster).... I have a Camp down there...

Pretty Much a vacation I do many of times.. Going try to catch some reds! I am sure it will be packed like all islands and beaches are the 4th of July weekend.

I wish I could access Storm 2K on the cell but they don't have that type of website.

#30 Postby **Air Force Met** » Fri Jul 01, 2005 11:12 pm

wxman57 wrote:I think y'all would have different opinions about development if you had to work M-F this past week then 12-hour shifts this weekend (until the system moves inland), then all next week after the storm moves inland. I already have to get up at 5:30am for 3 hours of work tomorrow morning plus participate in daily 10am and 3:45 pm conference calls 7 days a week. It would be just fine with me if this wave disappeared!

Amen to that! I get no sleep in tropical season. Too much work.

Hurricaneman · #31 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Sat Jul 02, 2005 12:38 am

I'm really starting to get concerned for the people on the Texas coast for next week if it continues to organize

southerngale · #32 Postby **southerngale** » Sat Jul 02, 2005 12:45 am

Hurricaneman wrote:I'm really starting to get concerned for the people on the Texas coast for next week if it continues to organize

Why? Even if it does, I doubt it will organize into much and most of Texas needs rain badly.

Hurricaneman · #33 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Sat Jul 02, 2005 12:56 am

Just saying keep an eye out

southerngale · #34 Postby **southerngale** » Sat Jul 02, 2005 1:09 am

Ok. Yeah, I'm keeping an eye out. Bring us rain!

Nimbus · #35 Postby **Nimbus** » Sat Jul 02, 2005 5:35 am

Nice area of convection south of Jamaica this morning.
Kingston had winds from the north northeast over night, could have been low level inflow for the flare up?
The winds are out of the east again this morning and there is no dramatic pressure drop so maybe its just another blob.

#36 Postby **skysummit** » Sat Jul 02, 2005 7:23 am

Nimbus wrote:Nice area of convection south of Jamaica this morning.
Kingston had winds from the north northeast over night, could have been low level inflow for the flare up?
The winds are out of the east again this morning and there is no dramatic pressure drop so maybe its just another blob.

Right now it's just the same ole' wave we've been watching for the past few days.

Anonymous · #37 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Jul 02, 2005 7:27 am

Good organization on the visible...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

#38 Postby **skysummit** » Sat Jul 02, 2005 7:29 am

She really came together since 24 hours ago. I wonder if it will continue? Could we have a TD in another 24 hours?

Anonymous · #39 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Jul 02, 2005 7:33 am

Sure. Again, I really think people get the idea that...

~PREEXISTING SPIN

~ABOVE NORMAL SSTS

~FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS

Then they say....BUT It's July.

It does not matter what month it is, we had two strong tropical storms in December of 2003. It could happen any month that conditions are there. This one though is indeed tropical, and may not waste time getting it's act together once in the Gulf.

#40 Postby **skysummit** » Sat Jul 02, 2005 7:37 am

~Floydbuster wrote:Sure. Again, I really think people get the idea that...

~PREEXISTING SPIN

~ABOVE NORMAL SSTS

~FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS

Then they say....BUT It's July.

It does not matter what month it is, we had two strong tropical storms in December of 2003. It could happen any month that conditions are there. This one though is indeed tropical, and may not waste time getting it's act together once in the Gulf.

And I do concur

Though, there are many people who think it will just fall apart, or not develop any further at all. I guess at this point, we all know who's in control, and it's up to her to make up her mind. Mother nature? Whachoogonnado?

Caribbean circulation

Who is online