Guess the system

[Anonymous]

1. Does it develop? Yes or No
2. If so, where does it go?
3. How strong is it?

I say

1. Yes
2. North Texas Coast
3. 90 mph

[swimaster20]

1. Yes
2. Near Cameron,LA
3. 75 mph

[skysummit]

1. Yes
2. 45 miles south of Galveston
3. 65 mph

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

There doe's seem to be a broad LLC. But it doe's not have oreganized convection.

My thinking is if this stays over the Yact for more then 12 hours. Then the system will likely weaken into a tropical wave. In which case it will likely be a large area of rain...So here is what needs to be seen before landfall on the Yact.

1# It needs to develop a LLC.
2# It might need to be a weak tropical storm to make it across.

That is yet to be seen...

As for track the models seem to went to take it west-northwest into the Yact. Then around the middle of the Yact get pushed northward. The Gfs 950 millibar shows this. The gfdl shows a west-northwest movement across. A slow curving to the northwest then as the trough comes down a northward or northwest track into Central Texas.


Development is not clear at all at this moment.


I say

1. 50-50
2. Central Texas Coast
3. 40 mph


I say it has a chance to make tropical storm has it is moving inland because of the tighting over the cirulation as it is doing so.

[Ixolib]

Yes
Sabine Pass
60mph

[senorpepr]

1) Yes
2) Matagord, TX
3) 60 mph

[feederband]

Yes
Galveston
75 mph

[Decomdoug]

Best Guess only:
1. Yes
2. Near NO, LA
3. Min Cat 1

[wxboy]

1. Yes.
2. NW TX to E LA
3. 95 MPH

I think an LLC is beginning to become well established this evening, and will continue overnight. If this thing hits one of the 90 degree water eddies, than it could really explode.

[Wpwxguy]

Yes
Morgan City,LA to Bay St. Louis, MS
95 mph

[Scorpion]

1. Yes
2. Port O'Connor
3. 105 mph

[Homey]

yes

mobile bay

55 mph

landfall on tuesday at 10:00 am

[DROliver]

YES

LA/MS border

115 mph Thursday

[hurricanetrack]

Yes
Duke 102
Carolina 68
Next March

Oops, wrong forum...

[southerngale]

1. Does it develop? Yes or No
2. If so, where does it go?
3. How strong is it?

I say

1. Yes
2. North Texas Coast
3. 90 mph

Hey, that's Bonnie, 1986.

I do think it's funny how so many of ya'll call it North Texas Coast and even Northeast Texas. NOBODY here says north anything. lol

Southeast Texas or Upper Texas coast, and more specifically to here, the Golden Triangle. (Beaumont, Port Arthur, Orange)

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If this thing becomes a hurricane, I will eat crow for the rest of the season. I'm going out of town with the Family tomarrow so I will not be back intill late Monday. Darn why doe's this happen to me every time I go out of town.

[Anonymous]

1. Does it develop? Yes or No
2. If so, where does it go?
3. How strong is it?

I say

1. Yes
2. North Texas Coast
3. 90 mph

Hey, that's Bonnie, 1986.

I do think it's funny how so many of ya'll call it North Texas Coast and even Northeast Texas. NOBODY here says north anything. lol

Southeast Texas or Upper Texas coast, and more specifically to here, the Golden Triangle. (Beaumont, Port Arthur, Orange)

I'm starting to wonder about the 90 mph. I'll stick with it for now.

[Brent]

2. North Texas Coast

Since when is Amarillo and Lubbock on the Coast???

1. Does it develop? Yes
2. If so, where does it go? Upper Texas Coast
3. How strong is it? 65 mph

[Anonymous]

And by my thoughts on 90 mph...I think I may have to adjust that upward.

[senorpepr]

And by my thoughts on 90 mph...I think I may have to adjust that upward.

What is making you think that?