96L for Caribbean System

[Derek Ortt]

opal formed in the Caribbean and then spent 4 days in the GOM before coming together and undergoing RI (plus it crossed an eddy)

Charley entered the GOM as a cat 3 and stayed in the SE GOM

Lili entered as a cat 2 and made landfall as a WEAKER system than it entered

You do realise that the only two major hurricanes to form in the GOM since 1965 are Anita, Alicia, and Bret? And upon the reanalysis, Alicia may be whacked down to a cat 2. Only other cat 2 to form in the GOM was Earl and that was by QG dynamics.

The GOM is the least likely place in the basin for the formation of cat 2 and above canes hitting the Gulf Coast

[Brent]

lili too

...and then it promptly fell apart. Made landfall weaker than it did when it entered the SE GOM.

[Derek Ortt]

the Yucatan is flatter than todays ITT at the TDF. Systems usually survive over the Yucatan, even weak TD's. Opal formed into a TS over the Yucatan and Bill became a TD over the Yucatan

[Derek Ortt]

Also, since at least 1950, there have only been 4 cat 4 or 5 hurricane to ever hit the US Gulf Coast

1. Audry, 1957: Cat 4
2. Carla, 1961: Cat 4
3. Camielle 1969: Cat 5
4. Charley 2004: Cat 4

Now for the US East Coast

1. Hazel, 1954: Cat 4
2. Donna, 1960: Cat 4
3. Diana, 1984: Cat 4 (direct hit on first pass, actual landfall came as a 1/2)
4. Hugo, 1989: Cat 4
5. Andrew, 1992: Cat 5

[Ivanhater]

Late on October 3, as Opal headed toward the northeast Gulf coast, the hurricane strengthend at a frightening rate. NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported the pressure was falling at the rate of 3 mb an hour.

opal did intensify rapidly in the gulf and charley did also before hitting, so they have and can intensify rapidly in the gulf, not saying this system will but it can happen

[drezee]

GOM really isnt the most favorable place for weak systems to explode quickly, unlike the NW Carib.

To address that statement, Lili does qualify. Nothing was stated about landfall. Lili did rapidly intensify in the GOM (30mb in 24 hours).

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Remember what it did to Isidor...In this is not even a oreganized system yet.


Here is a few storms

Isidor 2002
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Chantal 2001
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Keith 2000
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif


Katrina 1999.
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

[Ivanhater]

ivanhater
Tropical Wave



Joined: 01 Jul 2005
Posts: 18
Location: Pensacola, FL
Posted: Sat Jul 02, 2005 9:55 pm

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Late on October 3, as Opal headed toward the northeast Gulf coast, the hurricane strengthend at a frightening rate. NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported the pressure was falling at the rate of 3 mb an hour.


also...

By early the next day (October 4), aircraft reported the pressure had fallen to 916 mb (27.05 in), and sustained winds had increased to 150 mph. Opal, now almost a category 5 hurricane, was located 250 miles southwest of Pensocola, Florida.



opal did intensify rapidly in the gulf and charley did also before hitting, so they have and can intensify rapidly in the gulf, not saying this system will but it can happen

[Derek Ortt]

isidore spent 2 days over the Yucatan, as did Keith. They don;t count.

Lili entered the GOM as a cat 2. That means it didn't form in the GOM. I said systems that RI or landfall as cat 2 or higher in the GOM enter the GOM as a tropical cyclone and don't form in the GOM. Unless outh of Hispaniola has suddenly become part of the GOM (something I am not aware of), Lili doesn't qualify

[Ivanhater]

they dont have to be nothing before they get in the gulf, but storms do intensify rapidly in the gulf as in the case of opal dropping 3 mb per hour and down to 916 the next day, and charley going to cat 4 in a matter of hours....conditions have, and can be favorable for RI for future storms

[southerngale]

The GOM is the least likely place in the basin for the formation of cat 2 and above canes hitting the Gulf Coast

Good. Nobody wants a major cane. However, we would like some much needed rain, via this system or any other way!

[Stratosphere747]

I think what Derek is trying to get across is that it is rarity for a system to develop from next to nothing (wave,TD) and RI within the gulf.

You can count on your hands how many times this has happened over the last 150yrs or so.

While it is possible, don't look for it to happen except in rare occasions.

[Derek Ortt]

yes they do,

did you even read my post about the whole 4 cat 2 or higher storms that have FORMED in the GOM since 1965?

[Brent]

opal did intensify rapidly in the gulf and charley did also before hitting, so they have and can intensify rapidly in the gulf, not saying this system will but it can happen

Charley formed in the Eastern Caribbean though... Derek's point was a storm that forms IN THE GULF OF MEXICO is highly unlikely to become a major hurricane.

[Ivanhater]

i was referring to the comment of systems dont really rapidly intensify in the gulf... i dont care where they form, but there have been plenty of cases where storms(where ever they form) have RI in the gulf

[Derek Ortt]

my point is that if a system actually forms in the GOM, don't expect it to RI.

If it moves into the GOM, even as a minimal storm (it has formed its basic structure at that stage), then RI is a distinct possibility.

Unless this thing forms into a TD within the next 12-18 hours, dont look for even a strong cat 1 out of this

[Stratosphere747]

i was referring to the comment of systems dont really rapidly intensify in the gulf... i don't care where they form, but there have been plenty of cases where storms(where ever they form) have RI in the gulf

The key is that they for the most part have to have some type of significant formation before entering the gulf, otherwise the chances of one developing from scratch to a major cane is quite the rarity.

[Ivanhater]

i agree with you derek on this storm, i think its to early for any RI but who knows

[Stratosphere747]

my point is that if a system actually forms in the GOM, don't expect it to RI.

If it moves into the GOM, even as a minimal storm (it has formed its basic structure at that stage), then RI is a distinct possibility.

Unless this thing forms into a TD within the next 12-18 hours, dont look for even a strong cat 1 out of this

I'm not sure if I agree with you there Derek.....

Maybe you can elaborate on what seemed to be a bit of RI out of Claudette a few years back.

Some have voiced their opinions that another day and she could have been a bona-fide 2 or even 3?

[Andrew92]

my point is that if a system actually forms in the GOM, don't expect it to RI.

If it moves into the GOM, even as a minimal storm (it has formed its basic structure at that stage), then RI is a distinct possibility.

Unless this thing forms into a TD within the next 12-18 hours, dont look for even a strong cat 1 out of this

I'm not sure if I agree with you there Derek.....

Maybe you can elaborate on what seemed to be a bit of RI out of Claudette a few years back.

Some have voiced their opinions that another day and she could have been a bona-fide 2 or even 3?

She formed in the Caribbean, not the GOM.

-Andrew92