Guess the system

[Anonymous]

I think it will clip the Yucatan as a TD and move over the Gulf. Conditions are too ripe.

[senorpepr]

I think it will clip the Yucatan as a TD and move over the Gulf. Conditions are too ripe.

If it's going to clip the Yucatan, it better start moving NNW now. It's current track of 290° is just too westward for that.

[cycloneye]

Too little too late to clip Yucatan as the 290 track continues.

[tw861]

Yes

Between Freeport and Matagorda on the upper Texas coast

100

[Stormcenter]

Yes

75mph

SW La. or central La.

(I'm hoping we get some rain along
the upper TX coast from it)

[Brent]

And by my thoughts on 90 mph...I think I may have to adjust that upward.

I just don't see it doing that in Early July... maybe in Late August or September.

[Brent]

Yes

75mph

SW La. or central La.

(I'm hoping we get some rain along
the upper TX coast from it)

Better hope it goes into the west... east could give you nothing. It's pretty lopsided right now.

[wxboy]

you have to remember that climatology isn't everything. it's usually the conditions. This thing is in an extremely favorable environment. I'd say this system would develop if it was in December if water temps were this warm, and shear was this low.

[Anonymous]

you have to remember that climatology isn't everything. it's usually the conditions. This thing is in an extremely favorable environment. I'd say this system would develop if it was in December if water temps were this warm, and shear was this low.

Exactly

[senorpepr]

I think it will clip the Yucatan as a TD and move over the Gulf. Conditions are too ripe.

If it's going to clip the Yucatan, it better start moving NNW now. It's current track of 290° is just too westward for that.

I brought out the huge atlas and the protractor out...

From it's current position, it must shift from the 290° heading toward a 330° heading in order to "clip" the Yucatan. At it's forward motion of 11kt, it's going to be hard to make that 40° shift. However, if it does make the shift, then anything west of Louisiana is out of the question.

[Anonymous]

Maybe clip or move over. But I think it will exit north of the Yucatan

[senorpepr]

Maybe clip or move over. But I think it will exit north of the Yucatan

I'll betcha a coke that it will not emerge into the GOM east of Merida.

I'm thinking more between Merida and Campeche that it will emerge.

[Derek Ortt]

not an NWHHC forecast... just speculation

yes for development
upper texas landfall
35KT

[wxboy]

nah. the flow pattern shows this thing clipping the Yucatan, or possibly even missing it entirely. EVEN IF it does go directly through the Yucatan, the trough could catch it and move it northeast right along the Mexico/Texas coast and into Central LA and the waters are VERY warm in this area. I'm upping my estimate to 105 mph. The only way this thing will die out is if it moves straight west. It's got an 85/15 chance of developing, and a 70/30 chance of becoming at least a Cat 2.I just don't see it moving due west.

Maybe clip or move over. But I think it will exit north of the Yucatan

I'll betcha a coke that it will not emerge into the GOM east of Merida.

I'm thinking more between Merida and Campeche that it will emerge.

[senorpepr]

nah. the flow pattern shows this thing clipping the Yucatan, or possibly even missing it entirely. EVEN IF it does go directly through the Yucatan, the trough could catch it and move it northeast right along the Mexico/Texas coast and into Central LA and the waters are VERY warm in this area. I'm upping my estimate to 105 mph. The only way this thing will die out is if it moves straight west. It's got an 85/15 chance of developing, and a 70/30 chance of becoming at least a Cat 2.I just don't see it moving due west.

Maybe clip or move over. But I think it will exit north of the Yucatan

I'll betcha a coke that it will not emerge into the GOM east of Merida.

I'm thinking more between Merida and Campeche that it will emerge.

From it's current position, it must shift from the 290° heading toward a 330° heading in order to "clip" the Yucatan. At it's forward motion of 11kt, it's going to be hard to make that 40° shift. However, if it does make the shift, then anything west of Louisiana is out of the question.

If it's going to clip or miss the peninsula, it better shift fast. From this moment it need to shift 40°, but with each hour that passes, that number increases.

[skysummit]

Right now it seems to be moving just slightly north of due west....however, that ULL near Cuba seems to have taken a more NW'esterly turn pretty quick. Maybe this lil' system will follow it's path?

[wxboy]

heh. This movement is only estimated! There is no defined LLC YET, and therefore I would take any progged movement with a grain of salt. The whole system looks pretty stationary to me.

[senorpepr]

heh. This movement is only estimated! There is no defined LLC YET, and therefore I would take any progged movement with a grain of salt. The whole system looks pretty stationary to me.

Yes, it may be estimated, but if three met centers (that are geographically seperated by over a thousand miles and who give cyclone position estimates as they do even with developed cyclones) can give a position all within a few miles of each other and all three say it's move at about the same speed... I'd say that's a pretty good estimate. The movement, I would agree, is on this WNW track at about 10kt or so.

[vbhoutex]

What the heck?

Yes it develops
Landfall just SW of Freeport TX moving NNW to N
95 mph

[cycloneye]

Ok I will give a guess nothing scientific.

Yes
Lake Charles
70 mph