Guess the system

[wxman57]

heh. This movement is only estimated! There is no defined LLC YET, and therefore I would take any progged movement with a grain of salt. The whole system looks pretty stationary to me.

Yes, it may be estimated, but if three met centers (that are geographically seperated by over a thousand miles and who give cyclone position estimates as they do even with developed cyclones) can give a position all within a few miles of each other and all three say it's move at about the same speed... I'd say that's a pretty good estimate. The movement, I would agree, is on this WNW track at about 10kt or so.

Agree, senorpepr. I've been saying all day it'll reach the Yucatan between 18N-19N, probably near northern Belize. It will not move with the mid or upper level flow (BAMM/BAMD) as it is a very low-level feature. Note that the BAMs are shifting farther south and west. Originally, the BAMM had it impacting the Yucatan between 21N-22N, now it's closer to 19N.

Since it will reach the Yucatan around mid morning Sunday, there's no time to develop. Development would have to occur after crossing the Yucatan on Monday. I think it'll emerge into the BoC south of 20N early Monday morning (or late Sunday night). It will still be a wave, of course. Recon will probably fly out Monday afternoon. Could find a weak TD then, but possibly not until Tuesday morning with the first visible imagery. Once it starts to develop, it should hook more northerly toward northern Mexico or the lower TX coast. Landfall between Brownsville and Corpus Christi near sunrise Wednesday at 40-50 kts.

[wxboy]

you're basing this estimate off of the supposed LLC, which will probalby be much closer to the mid level feature tomorrow morning. I say depression tomorrow, storm Monday. Hurricane Monday night, moving through the Yucatan channel, or CLIPPING the Yucatan, and then we'll go from there.

heh. This movement is only estimated! There is no defined LLC YET, and therefore I would take any progged movement with a grain of salt. The whole system looks pretty stationary to me.

Yes, it may be estimated, but if three met centers (that are geographically seperated by over a thousand miles and who give cyclone position estimates as they do even with developed cyclones) can give a position all within a few miles of each other and all three say it's move at about the same speed... I'd say that's a pretty good estimate. The movement, I would agree, is on this WNW track at about 10kt or so.

Agree, senorpepr. I've been saying all day it'll reach the Yucatan between 18N-19N, probably near northern Belize. It will not move with the mid or upper level flow (BAMM/BAMD) as it is a very low-level feature. Note that the BAMs are shifting farther south and west. Originally, the BAMM had it impacting the Yucatan between 21N-22N, now it's closer to 19N.

Since it will reach the Yucatan around mid morning Sunday, there's no time to develop. Development would have to occur after crossing the Yucatan on Monday. I think it'll emerge into the BoC south of 20N early Monday morning (or late Sunday night). It will still be a wave, of course. Recon will probably fly out Monday afternoon. Could find a weak TD then, but possibly not until Tuesday morning with the first visible imagery. Once it starts to develop, it should hook more northerly toward northern Mexico or the lower TX coast. Landfall between Brownsville and Corpus Christi near sunrise Wednesday at 40-50 kts.

[Derek Ortt]

thats based upon where the greatest turning is. These things dont just magically reform, reformations take at least 12 hours to complete

and there is not a 70 percent chance of this becoming at least a cat 2. maybe a 70 percent chance of this remaining below 40KT at peak intensity

[wxman57]

The wave/trof axis is already nearing 86W. Any depression is going to form in the trof axis, not off to the east. We'll see in the morning. No TD until late Monday at the earliest.

Going to bed!

[wxboy]

and the reformation is already occuring it seems. I think that there are two LLCs fighting, one moving west, and the other embeded within the main "turning".

[wxman57]

Derek, I thought we were taking the weekend off?

I'm heading into work around 7:30 tomorrow to assist with the storm projections. So much for my 3-day break. Had to go in at 7am today. I know where I'll be on the 4th.....

Good night!

[Stormcenter]

and the reformation is already occuring it seems. I think that there are two LLCs fighting, one moving west, and the other embeded within the main "turning".

I think you are correct.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[SouthernWx]

Yes, IMO it will develop...

Projected landfall? My best estimate is currently between Port O'Conner, Texas and Morgan City, Louisiana; highest strike threat IMO the Galveston, TX to Cameron, LA area.

Landfall intensity? The western GOM isn't particularly potent at this time (re: TCHP), but a cat-1 or even cat-2 hurricane isn't out of the question...but I'll remain conservative for now: 50-60 mph.

PW

My latest tropical wx analysis:
http://community-2.webtv.net/SouthernWx ... calWeather

[Anonymous]

and the reformation is already occuring it seems. I think that there are two LLCs fighting, one moving west, and the other embeded within the main "turning".

I think you are correct.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Agree

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If there was a LLC it would be around 18 north/85.5...In which is a slight inflow into that ball of convection. This doe's have good outflow over the southeastern side. But depression do not expect that intill into the Gulf of Mexico. In fact after it spends 24 hours over the Yactan anything it did form will have faded. Expect a area of convection/tropical wave.

I'm sticking with my slight chance of a tropical storm at landfall....In that will be because the energy will be tighten as it is moving in.


I'm going out of town. In so I'm trying hard not to get hyped over this.

[senorpepr]

I must rehash the comments said from wxman57 and Derek Ortt: the track keeps it at about 290 and as this continues to occur, the chances of it moving northward become more and more improbable. With that said, this is going to put it in the Yucatan Peninsula and not "clip" it. If recon heads out tomorrow, I'll be surprised, unless they push back the time. The chance of this becoming a hurricane is fairly low and for a category two or higher... very low.

As a true Missourian, I'll say this: Show me. Show me the evidence that this is going to turn northward. Show me the evidence that this will become a hurricane by Monday.

[Air Force Met]

I'll play...

1) Yes
2) TX/LA state line....within 60nm miles...moving N by then out of the central GOM. Depends on where the LLC finally decides to get going.
3) 70 MPH

[Stormcenter]

I'll play...

1) Yes
2) TX/LA state line....within 60nm miles...moving N by then out of the central GOM. Depends on where the LLC finally decides to get going.
3) 70 MPH

Thanks for playing and I'll like your prediction.

[Stormcenter]

I must rehash the comments said from wxman57 and Derek Ortt: the track keeps it at about 290 and as this continues to occur, the chances of it moving northward become more and more improbable. With that said, this is going to put it in the Yucatan Peninsula and not "clip" it. If recon heads out tomorrow, I'll be surprised, unless they push back the time. The chance of this becoming a hurricane is fairly low and for a category two or higher... very low.

As a true Missourian, I'll say this: Show me. Show me the evidence that this is going to turn northward. Show me the evidence that this will become a hurricane by Monday.

It's interesting to note where the increase in convection is occuring tonight.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[SouthernWx]

The chance of this becoming a hurricane is fairly low and for a category two or higher... very low.

As a true Missourian, I'll say this: Show me. Show me the evidence that this is going to turn northward. Show me the evidence that this will become a hurricane by Monday.

As a true southerner, I'll say this friend...if your comments were directed at me, that explains why I felt anger rising as I read them.

To begin with, you need to clarify out WHOM you are directing comments at. IF you are referring to my posted comments above, then perhaps you need to check my website analysis before stating you need evidence as to why this system "may" turn northward.

When conducting an analysis, I always look at the current and forecast synoptic situation. While it's entirely possible this storm could remain far enough south while crossing the Yucatan to continue WNW into S TX/ NE Mexico (why I urge coastal residents from south Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi to closely monitor the system), there is also a possibility it could recurve northward over the GOM and then accelerate NE to ENE across the mid-south and southeastern states...as the GFS and GFDL progged earlier today; also why WSFO FFC is concerned about possible tropical disturbance induced flooding in Georgia around mid-week. There's also a possibility the disturbance could dissipate over the Yucatan and never develop at all...I've seen it happen before.

I've also acknowledged in my above post that current TCHP isn't exceptionally potent in the western GOM. However, I never discount the possibility of a GOM hurricane in early July; better to inform those who read my website analysis to this possibility than completely ignore history...and possibly leave coastal residents unprepared.

PW

[Stormcenter]

The chance of this becoming a hurricane is fairly low and for a category two or higher... very low.

As a true Missourian, I'll say this: Show me. Show me the evidence that this is going to turn northward. Show me the evidence that this will become a hurricane by Monday.

As a true southerner, I'll say this friend...if your comments were directed at me, that explains why I felt anger rising as I read them.

To begin with, you need to clarify out WHOM you are directing comments at. IF you are referring to my posted comments above, then perhaps you need to check my website analysis before stating you need evidence as to why this system "may" turn northward.

When conducting an analysis, I always look at the current and forecast synoptic situation. While it's entirely possible this storm could remain far enough south while crossing the Yucatan to continue WNW into S TX/ NE Mexico (why I urge coastal residents from south Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi to closely monitor the system), there is also a possibility it could recurve northward over the GOM and then accelerate NE to ENE across the mid-south and southeastern states...as the GFS and GFDL progged earlier today; also why WSFO FFC is concerned about possible tropical disturbance induced flooding in Georgia around mid-week. There's also a possibility the disturbance could dissipate over the Yucatan and never develop at all...I've seen it happen before.

I've also acknowledged in my above post that current TCHP isn't exceptionally potent in the western GOM. However, I never discount the possibility of a GOM hurricane in early July; better to inform those who read my website analysis to this possibility than completely ignore history...and possibly leave coastal residents unprepared.

PW

Good post.

[senorpepr]

The chance of this becoming a hurricane is fairly low and for a category two or higher... very low.

As a true Missourian, I'll say this: Show me. Show me the evidence that this is going to turn northward. Show me the evidence that this will become a hurricane by Monday.

As a true southerner, I'll say this friend...if your comments were directed at me, that explains why I felt anger rising as I read them.

To begin with, you need to clarify out WHOM you are directing comments at. IF you are referring to my posted comments above, then perhaps you need to check my website analysis before stating you need evidence as to why this system "may" turn northward.

When conducting an analysis, I always look at the current and forecast synoptic situation. While it's entirely possible this storm could remain far enough south while crossing the Yucatan to continue WNW into S TX/ NE Mexico (why I urge coastal residents from south Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi to closely monitor the system), there is also a possibility it could recurve northward over the GOM and then accelerate NE to ENE across the mid-south and southeastern states...as the GFS and GFDL progged earlier today; also why WSFO FFC is concerned about possible tropical disturbance induced flooding in Georgia around mid-week. There's also a possibility the disturbance could dissipate over the Yucatan and never develop at all...I've seen it happen before.

I've also acknowledged in my above post that current TCHP isn't exceptionally potent in the western GOM. However, I never discount the possibility of a GOM hurricane in early July; better to inform those who read my website analysis to this possibility than completely ignore history...and possibly leave coastal residents unprepared.

PW

Whoa... I'm really sorry Perry, but my comments were definately not toward you. What I was focusing my message on were those who are expecting this storm to barely clip the Yucatan or pass through the Yucatan Straight. Also, it's toward those who are insisting that this will be a major hurricane. I've seen these posts throughout the evening without any reasoning behind them.

[SouthernWx]

Whoa... I'm really sorry Perry, but my comments were definately not toward you. What I was focusing my message on were those who are expecting this storm to barely clip the Yucatan or pass through the Yucatan Straight. Also, it's toward those who are insisting that this will be a major hurricane. I've seen these posts throughout the evening without any reasoning behind them.

Thanks for the clarification my friend. My apologies for the misunderstanding.

Have a wonderful Independence Day weekend

Perry

[Stratosphere747]

What the heck?

Yes it develops
Landfall just SW of Freeport TX moving NNW to N
95 mph

Guess again....

[Stormcenter]

What the heck?

Yes it develops
Landfall just SW of Freeport TX moving NNW to N
95 mph

Guess again....

Why? I think that's a good guess.