What I see for the near term...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MHTE.html

Wind from the WSW (250 degrees) at 3 MPH (3 KT)
Visibility greater than 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Weather Cumulonimbus clouds, towering cumulus clouds observed
Temperature 84 F (29 C)
Dew Point 75 F (24 C)
Relative Humidity 74%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.83 in. Hg (1010 hPa)
ob MHTE 022200Z 25003KT 9999 BKN022CB BKN080 29/24 Q1010 CB TCU TDS HZ
SSW at 3 mph to the south of the center=West wind.


But the bad news is the winds at Goldston int airport Belize is calm. Meaning this is a very small system. Also the obs to the north of there is calm to.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MZBZ.html


The Buoy to the northwest of the center is reporting east-southeast winds. Which means that winds are moving up the back side of it.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056


Looking at the data...

1# There is a small area of 15 to 20 knot winds = small wind field if that is oreganized at all.

2# Any LLC is small...In which case there is most likely is one because of the west wind = tropical cyclone formation maybe slowly happening.

3# The system is past 85 west by that one buoy to the north...No quastion.

The Ir satellite shows a increase of deep convection oreganizing right over the top of the LLC.

We also have to watch for the system to starting tighting/Oreganizing as it is moving in. That could tip this system over the top...

Then we got the Yactan which will stop development intill the system moves back over water Monday night.

Then its anybodys game.

[Hurricaneman]

Could get interesting

[skysummit]

Good post Matt. Yout got my vote.