Tropical Depression may be forming just E of islands...

[senorpepr]

I have been watching this all day. This is the best developed system in the Atlantic Basin right now (96L included). Tropical Storm watches should be raised tomorrow morning if the trend continues.

I'm sorry, but I must disagree. This is far from the level of organization that 96L displays. This wave is battling plenty of dry air and will continue to do so in the next couple of days. Tropical storm watches (associated with this wave) will not be needed tomorrow nor will they be needed throughout the beginning of the upcoming week. I'll bet on that statement.

[Brent]

I have been watching this all day. This is the best developed system in the Atlantic Basin right now (96L included). Tropical Storm watches should be raised tomorrow morning if the trend continues.

I'm sorry, but I must disagree. This is far from the level of organization that 96L displays. This wave is battling plenty of dry air and will continue to do so in the next couple of days. Tropical storm watches (associated with this wave) will not be needed tomorrow nor will they be needed throughout the beginning of the upcoming week. I'll bet on that statement.

I agree... just not that impressive to me. I wouldn't look for development anytime soon unless it really gets organized.

[abajan]

For sure it will be mentioned in the 10:30 PM Tropical Weather Outlook.

Sorry but it wasn't mentioned.

[cycloneye]

For sure it will be mentioned in the 10:30 PM Tropical Weather Outlook.

Sorry but it wasn't mentioned.

Yes I know. There is no true organization to it although it is a big wave in terms of area coverage but without a LLCC.

[drezee]

Everyone is entitled to their opinions. Since there is no decent ground data to support either claim, I will leave it at that. I do, however, believe that the system E of the islands will ultimately be the strongest system.

[Guest]

Tropical Storm watches should be raised tomorrow morning if the trend continues.

Watches for where? Can't be Barbados and the Eastern Caribbean as yet considering that this has not even reached TD stage.

Though it is surrounded by SAL, the thing is that SAL is not stationary and the disturbance does have some elbow room for organisations.

[Guest]

After a spurt in activity, showers have been dissipating in the last few hours as per the two images below.

[HURAKAN]

If the system get into a better environment, then watch out!

[senorpepr]

After a spurt in activity, showers have been dissipating in the last few hours as per the two images below.

Actually, shower activity has changed little between those images. What difference you are seeing is a lack of thick cirrus that was apperant earlier.

[drezee]

Morning visibles are really impressive! In my opinion, a TD is forming now!!

Disclaimer=The above sentence is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Derek Ortt]

shouldn't we have the disclaimer in the title as there is nothing that officially states that a TD is really forming? Its only what the staff has asked as this can cause massive confusion

[drezee]

shouldn't we have the disclaimer in the title as there is nothing that officially states that a TD is really forming? Its only what the staff has asked as this can cause massive confusion

I changed it to "may be forming" in the title.

[Derek Ortt]

that a LOT better and will not cause any confusion

I would not be at all surprised to see this eventually become something that we all will REALLY be talking about

[cycloneye]

Morning visibles are really impressive! A TD is forming now!!

Please dont confuse the members with disinformation.NO depression is forming right now east of the islands. If you are going to post a sentence like that you have to provide much more information to support your thinking.And also I am posting the disclaimer in your post.

[Stormcenter]

that a LOT better and will not cause any confusion

I would not be at all surprised to see this eventually become something that we all will REALLY be talking about

What exactly do you mean by that? Sounds like you saying the system in the NW Carribean is not worth talking about in comparison to the Atlantic disturbance. If that's the case then you made me laugh for the day. Thank you.

[drezee]

Morning visibles are really impressive! In my opinion, a TD is forming now!! LLC should be about 11.8N 54.5W. Low level banding is clearly apparent and winds are 35 mph sustained just N of the center. Buoy 41040 recorded 35 mph sustained 1-min winds at 1051z.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=11&lon=-53&zoom=2&width=800&height=600&type=Animation&info=vis

[Derek Ortt]

the atlantic system has more long term potential than the Caribbean

[Thunder44]

Morning visibles are really impressive! In my opinion, a TD is forming now!! LLC should be about 11.8N 54.5W. Low level banding is clearly apparent and winds are 35 mph sustained just N of the center. Buoy 41040 recorded 35 mph sustained 1-min winds at 1051z.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=11&lon=-53&zoom=2&width=800&height=600&type=Animation&info=vis

I need to see more visible images to see if those low-level clouds are actually moving inward towards the center. And TPC doesn't classify atlantic tropical cyclones with 1-minute sustained winds. 10 minutes I believe.

[drezee]

Morning visibles are really impressive! In my opinion, a TD is forming now!! LLC should be about 11.8N 54.5W. Low level banding is clearly apparent and winds are 35 mph sustained just N of the center. Buoy 41040 recorded 35 mph sustained 1-min winds at 1051z.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=11&lon=-53&zoom=2&width=800&height=600&type=Animation&info=vis

I need to see more visible images to see if those low-level clouds are actually moving inward towards the center. And TPC doesn't classify atlantic tropical cyclones with 1-minute sustained winds. 10 minutes I believe.

No, buoys recored 10-minute winds. 1-minute winds are used for classification of tropical cyclones.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/D4.html

Code: Select all

The National Hurricane Center (and the U.S. National Weather Service as a whole) uses a 1 min averaging time for reporting the sustained (i.e. relatively long-lasting) winds. The maximum sustained wind mentioned in the advisories that NHC issues for tropical storms and hurricanes are the highest 1 min surface winds occuring within the circulation of the system. These "surface" winds are those observed (or, more often, estimated) to occur at the standard meteorological height of 10 m (33 ft) in an unobstructed exposure (i.e., not blocked by buildings or trees).


[Guest]

I see clouds deepening but I sure can't see the tell tale spin and banding.