NW Caribbean Invest developing nicely this a.m.....

[drezee]

756
ABNT20 KNHC 031459
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SUN JUL 3 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED
ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH AND CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM LATER TODAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. INTERESTS IN
AND NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SQUALLS
PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20
MPH...AND IS EXPECTED TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY

[dixiebreeze]

Well, that settles things. It's WNW for now!

[drezee]

Buoy 42056 now reporting stronger winds:

Time (GMT) WSPD WDIR
1431 25.3 kts ENE ( 76 deg true )

Approx 30mph sustained winds

with them claiming it has a LLC now... a depression is imminent!

[wxboy]

exactly SkySummit

[wxboy]

i c the low as right here:

[kevin]

Don't feed the troll.

[skysummit]

exactly SkySummit

Exactly what?

[dixiebreeze]

Cindy wannabe starting to wrap?:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/WV/20.jpg

[wxboy]

right here, Skysummit.

yes. It HAS been moving NW. I am looking at the ENTIRE system, where a LLC is most likely to form!

That doesn't make any sense. I quit.

LOL, don't quit. But I think he is talking about the overall movement of the system and the fact that the center can reform in weak systems. Right?

[skysummit]

Look at the overall scope of this system...visible especially. If that northwestern side would fill in a bit, it would be extremely symmetrical.

[Normandy]

My goodness...its not a depression and its not moving NW....its about to move inland into the Yucatan...

With that being said, looking at the models im really getting worried down here in Houston.

[wxman57]

i c the low as right here:

Observations do not support your low position, wxboy. The buoy right in your projected path has been reporting a RISING pressure the past 6 hours and a steady easterly wind. Even the NHC mentions the location as 150 miles east of Chetumal, MX, which is near 18.5N/86W (where I put the center). You can't look at cirrus clouds to place a low-level center.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I kinda have to agree with wxboy. Not on the track, but the development of a surface low further to the ENE. Studied a lot of sat's over the last few minutes and it seems one could be developing in that general area. If not now then later as the one around 18.5/87 could die off. Just my two cents. Not saying definite but possibly.

[ALhurricane]

I definitely have to agree with wxman57 here. There is no way there is a LLC where wxboy is indicating. As wxman said, a constant east wind and rising pressures at the buoy in the NW Caribbean is obvious proof there is no LLC there.

The general consensus is that if there is a low it is near 19/86. That's the only place it's going to be at this point, despite whatever else is being said. Bottom line is that signicant development will not be possible until it moves across the Yucatan and into the GOM.

[skysummit]

It really doesn't seem to be moving much anymore. Look at the last 8 frames on visible. The eastern most edge of the system is near 80 and not really moving away from it, and the main cloud pattern doesn't seem to be getting any closer to the Yucatan. If anything, it seems like it's sitting there and starting to wrap. Just my obs.

[wxman57]

First of all, there is not a well-defined LLC as of now. It's just a broad area of lower pressure. You certainly cannot look at satellite imagery and determine that a low center is forming here or there very easily, particularly if you don't have a lot of experience in doing so. You have to take everything into consideration - satellite, surface observations, low-level wind flow, upper-level wind flow, etc.

I can see the mid and upper-level turning that makes wxboy want to position a surface low to the northeast of where I place it, but there is a very reliable NOAA buoy positioned right in the path of his low position which is reporting a steadily rising pressure, not falling as we would expect to see. So surface data does not support any low center in that area.

That said, a good part of this disturbance will be moving inland into the Yucatan Peninsula this afternoon and crossing land overnight. I certainly don't think there is a TD out there now, based on surface observations (of which there aren't many, I'll admit). But I think that no matter where it crosses the Yucatan, it's likely going to become TS Cindy in the SW Gulf by Monday afternoon or by Tuesday morning when it's fully over water. The most likely track would be to about 300 degrees at first, then turning NW-NNW toward the lower to mid Texas coast. I wouldn't rule out northern Mexico, nor would I rule out the upper Texas coast. For it to strike Louisiana, it would have to redevelop farther north as wxboy is suggesting, but I don't see that happening.

Here's a 15Z image:

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/carib14.gif">

[HURAKAN]

In the Tropical Update at 11:50 AM, the meteorologist (I don't know his name, but is not Steve Lyons) just said that the disturbance in the Western Caribbean is more a mid-level to non-tropical feature? As I know this system has always been related to a tropical wave, thereafter its tropical in nature, right?

[Andrew92]

In the Tropical Update at 11:50 AM, the meteorologist (I don't know his name, but is not Steve Lyons) just said that the disturbance in the Western Caribbean is more a mid-level to non-tropical feature? As I know this system has always been related to a tropical wave, thereafter its tropical in nature, right?

Always take TWC with a grain of salt.

-Andrew92

[dixiebreeze]

Buoy report:

Buoy and Ship observations within 200 miles of 20N / 85Wobservations from 07/03/2005 1400 GMT to 07/03/2005 1553 GMT

ID T1 TIME LAT LON DIST HDG WDIR WSPD GST WVHT DPD APD MWD PRES PTDY ATMP WTMP DEWP VIS TIDE
(GMT) nm ° ° kts kts ft sec sec ° in in °F °F °F mi ft
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
42056 B 1450 19.87 -85.06 9 203 90 19.4 23.3 3.9 7 - - 29.90 +0.02 80.2 84.6 77.4 - -
1 observations reported for 1400 GMT

[x-y-no]

I definitely have to agree with wxman57 here. There is no way there is a LLC where wxboy is indicating. As wxman said, a constant east wind and rising pressures at the buoy in the NW Caribbean is obvious proof there is no LLC there.

The general consensus is that if there is a low it is near 19/86. That's the only place it's going to be at this point, despite whatever else is being said. Bottom line is that signicant development will not be possible until it moves across the Yucatan and into the GOM.

Me too. If anything, I think any circulation center may be a tad south of 18.5, although that's as good a number as any, IMHO.

I admit to being surprised bt the intensity of the convection this morning, but I'm not ready to cook my plate of crow yet.