Will 96L survive the Yucatan?

[HouTXmetro]

Will 96L make it pass the Yucatan? If so what will it be upon emergence into the GOM?

[lilbump3000]

Since the time I started watching tropical systems and if they have atleast some type of low center it usually looks better organized once overland than what it did over water take arlene for an example when it made landfall. So I feel this system will probably get better organized overland then once in the gulf upgraded most likely to tropical storm cindy.

[skysummit]

Since the time I started watching tropical systems and if they have atleast some type of low center it usually looks better organized once overland than what it did over water take arlene for an example when it made landfall. So I feel this system will probably get better organized overland then once in the gulf upgraded most likely to tropical storm cindy.

Didn't Bret do this? Once he moved into Mexico, it seemed as though he blew up a nice little CDO for a while , but what do you mean "get better organized" over land?

[HouTXmetro]

Since the time I started watching tropical systems and if they have atleast some type of low center it usually looks better organized once overland than what it did over water take arlene for an example when it made landfall. So I feel this system will probably get better organized overland then once in the gulf upgraded most likely to tropical storm cindy.

So your theory is that weak systems have a better chance of getting "organized" (as in circulation) over land?

[lilbump3000]

Since the time I started watching tropical systems and if they have atleast some type of low center it usually looks better organized once overland than what it did over water take arlene for an example when it made landfall. So I feel this system will probably get better organized overland then once in the gulf upgraded most likely to tropical storm cindy.

So your theory is that weak systems have a better chance of getting "organized" (as in circulation) over land?

yeh thats what I was trying to say.

[Hyperstorm]

Actually, lilbump3000, is not far from reality. Systems DO tend to become better organized when they move over land (their cloud pattern that is) because there's more friction which allows the LLC to tighten up. I've always held this theory because of the many systems that I can mention that looked "better" over land than over water.

I do believe the Yucatan Peninsula will give this "96L" the boost it will need for its encounter with the hot waters of the Gulf of Mexico...

[HouTXmetro]

Since the time I started watching tropical systems and if they have atleast some type of low center it usually looks better organized once overland than what it did over water take arlene for an example when it made landfall. So I feel this system will probably get better organized overland then once in the gulf upgraded most likely to tropical storm cindy.

So your theory is that weak systems have a better chance of getting "organized" (as in circulation) over land?

yeh thats what I was trying to say.

Idunno, but now that I think about it, I think TS Allison in 2001 got better organized over land from a circulation and convection standpoint.

[lilbump3000]

I expect 96L to make landfall with winds no lower than 70mph and no higher than 100mph between houston and new orleans.

[x-y-no]

I voted for open wave, although I give it a fair chance of being a TD. Depends on where the center is forming. If it's more south, like I believe, then open wave - further north, TD.

Jan

[skysummit]

I voted for open wave, although I give it a fair chance of being a TD. Depends on where the center is forming. If it's more south, like I believe, then open wave - further north, TD.

Jan

I was going to post the EXACT same thing!

[MGC]

Well, assuming a TD is found this afternoon by recon, I voted for the TD to survive the transit across the Yucatan. Depending on where the center of circulation forms and how much of the Yucatan the TD will have to cross will determine its condition when it emerges in the GOM......MGC

[HouTXmetro]

And the winner is? NOBODY KNOWS!!