NW Caribbean Invest developing nicely this a.m.....

[CYCLONE MIKE]

wxman57, you talk about mid level circulation more to the ene of the main circulation. Is it possible as this (whatever it is or may become) moves inland could the surface feature weaken or die out allowing the mid level feature to take over and reach the surface becoming the more dominant one. I know it is hard to say with these newly developing systems, but it just looks as if it is continuing to organize more to the north and trying to wrap as time goes. Just really trying to figure out different scenarios.

[skysummit]

Looking at WV Loop, I see 2 ULL in the Gulf (if I'm correct) and both are moving north. I believe these are the two that were near the Yucatan and Cuba yesterday. Would this be a sign of making this system try to go further north, or maybe stall it?

[dixiebreeze]

Good post Cyclone Mike, I'll also be waiting for a response from wxman57

[drezee]

Sustained winds are still brisk (TD level)

Buoy 42056
Highest 1 minute Wind Speed
Time (GMT) WSPD WDIR
1539 23.7 kts ESE ( 107 deg true)

~28mph

[wxboy]

where I put the low may NOT be where a low CURRENTLY is, but where the dominant low is either forming, or most likely to form and take over.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

It does not have to be wxman57 to answer it can be anyone that has more info and answers than me to help out.

[skysummit]

Looking at WV Loop, I see 2 ULL in the Gulf (if I'm correct) and both are moving north. I believe these are the two that were near the Yucatan and Cuba yesterday. Would this be a sign of making this system try to go further north, or maybe stall it?

This is what I'm talking about. Also, there seems to be a good swath of dry air moving SE from Texas. Could this all be factors of this system moving further north or does it have nothing to do with it?

[Guest]

Looking at WV Loop, I see 2 ULL in the Gulf (if I'm correct) and both are moving north. I believe these are the two that were near the Yucatan and Cuba yesterday. Would this be a sign of making this system try to go further north, or maybe stall it?

This is what I'm talking about. Also, there seems to be a good swath of dry air moving SE from Texas. Could this all be factors of this system moving further north or does it have nothing to do with it?

I know I'm seeing a whole lot of development out there today , but is that two boobs that have formed in the gulf, if so this ultralite is making a hard left and I'm checking them out.

[MGC]

Two boobsin the GOM? What cup size????.....MGC

[skysummit]

Two boobsin the GOM? What cup size????.....MGC

They're probably salty anyway.

Anyone care to answer my question?

[kevin]

As a Qualified Expert Evaluator, I would have to say B.

[x-y-no]

Two boobsin the GOM? What cup size????.....MGC

They're probably salty anyway.

Anyone care to answer my question?

It's not going to steer the storm (look no higher than mid-level for steering of weak systems) but having those ULLs retreating ahead helps the outflow, and thus contributes to intensification.

I don't think the mid-latitude UL trough dipping down is going to come far enough to disrupt the system. Since my track thinking is more southwest than most, I don't think the influence will be large. If the more northeasterly track ideas are right, then this jet may also assist outflow once the system enters the Gulf.

Jan

[skysummit]

Two boobsin the GOM? What cup size????.....MGC

They're probably salty anyway.

Anyone care to answer my question?

It's not going to steer the storm (look no higher than mid-level for steering of weak systems) but having those ULLs retreating ahead helps the outflow, and thus contributes to intensification.

I don't think the mid-latitude UL trough dipping down is going to come far enough to disrupt the system. Since my track thinking is more southwest than most, I don't think the influence will be large. If the more northeasterly track ideas are right, then this jet may also assist outflow once the system enters the Gulf.

Jan

Ok, thanks...that's the opinion I was looking for

[wxman57]

wxman57, you talk about mid level circulation more to the ene of the main circulation. Is it possible as this (whatever it is or may become) moves inland could the surface feature weaken or die out allowing the mid level feature to take over and reach the surface becoming the more dominant one. I know it is hard to say with these newly developing systems, but it just looks as if it is continuing to organize more to the north and trying to wrap as time goes. Just really trying to figure out different scenarios.

It's certainly possible that the present area of lower pressure farther southwest could dissipate and an LLC could form farther NE. I'm not disputing that. But I am saying that current data from surface observations strongly indicate that pressures are rising to the northeast, not falling as one would expect if an LLC was forming there.

[skysummit]

How often are these surface observations updated?

[wxman57]

How often are these surface observations updated?

New obs are reported every hour, for the most part. NOAA buoys report a number of times per hour, however.

[dwg71]

with the floater now fixed over her, i really dont see a llc, a broad one or not. Its just an open wave. nothing will develop in carb, if it does it will be gom.

[Normandy]

Oh no my friend, that is definitely an LLC. Look at the floater.

[skysummit]

Oh no my friend, that is definitely an LLC. Look at the floater.

Highly agree...it's there.

[Normandy]

Yea im seriously worried about this one now...its looking too good too soon.