NW Caribbean Invest developing nicely this a.m.....

[Stratosphere747]

It almost seems it is trying to develop a bit more east than first thought, which would give it more time to develop before hitting the YP.

[wxman57]

Oh no my friend, that is definitely an LLC. Look at the floater.

I certainly can't see any definite LLC there either using only high-res satellite, and surface obs aren't too plentiful down there. However, convection is on the increase ENE of Belize and diminishing by the NOAA buoy at 20N/85W.

[Rainband]

Yea im seriously worried about this one now...its looking too good too soon.

I will be more than happy to track this from a far

[Thunder44]

I've been looking at visible images on the floater, and I agree with the low position, wxman57 has. I really don't see any low-level turning in the clouds further north.

[Agua]

I certainly can't see any definite LLC there

I can't either. *Possible*, maybe, but *definite*? No.

[Normandy]

I see one east of Belize....just my though.

[dixiebreeze]

The "Test" report:

000
WHXX01 KWBC 031229
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL962005) ON 20050703 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050703 1200 050704 0000 050704 1200 050705 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.5N 86.0W 19.6N 88.0W 21.1N 90.0W 23.0N 91.8W
BAMM 18.5N 86.0W 19.7N 87.9W 21.1N 90.0W 23.0N 91.8W
A98E 18.5N 86.0W 19.4N 87.4W 20.7N 89.0W 22.6N 90.6W
LBAR 18.5N 86.0W 19.6N 87.8W 21.4N 89.8W 23.5N 91.7W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 43KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 30KTS 36KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050705 1200 050706 1200 050707 1200 050708 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 24.8N 93.2W 27.7N 94.3W 29.6N 93.6W 30.4N 90.9W
BAMM 24.6N 93.3W 27.0N 95.3W 28.5N 96.5W 29.1N 97.5W
A98E 24.8N 92.3W 28.9N 94.7W 31.8N 93.7W 33.5N 88.3W
LBAR 25.7N 92.9W 29.5N 92.6W 31.6N 87.7W 33.9N 79.5W
SHIP 49KTS 57KTS 62KTS 63KTS
DSHP 42KTS 51KTS 46KTS 29KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.5N LONCUR = 86.0W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 17.9N LONM12 = 84.9W DIRM12 = 298DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 17.0N LONM24 = 82.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

[wxman57]

I see the pressure has risen to 1013.0mb at the NOAA buoy near 20N/85W now, and wind is SE at 25 kts. Lowest pressure remains just off the northeast coast of Belize, and that's probably around 1011 mb.

[Stratosphere747]

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/surface/gulf.gif


Still looks like a broad low...

To bad there are no reports to the south...

[Anonymous]

Can someone plot that out on a map please

[Normandy]

Any reports near 17-18 N 85 W??? Thats where I think the center is.

[Hurricaneman]

20n 85w I believe

[Normandy]

20n 85w I believe

But pressures are rising in that location...

[Nimbus]

Should start seeing the pressure drop and the winds blowing from the west near Chetumal as the depression comes ashore.

http://tinyurl.com/b7lra

Currently the winds at Chetumal are near zero but the stations to the north have stronger winds out of the east.

The recon flight will probably find a closed circulation later this afternoon.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

wxman57, I really appreciate your responses to my and other peoples questions who don't know as much about this as you. Especially without bashing as some others do. Thanks.

[skysummit]

Should start seeing the pressure drop and the winds blowing from the west near Chetumal as the depression comes ashore.

http://tinyurl.com/b7lra

Currently the winds at Chetumal are near zero but the stations to the north have stronger winds out of the east.

The recon flight will probably find a closed circulation later this afternoon.

The Depression? I wasn't aware we had a depression

[george_r_1961]

In the Tropical Update at 11:50 AM, the meteorologist (I don't know his name, but is not Steve Lyons) just said that the disturbance in the Western Caribbean is more a mid-level to non-tropical feature? As I know this system has always been related to a tropical wave, thereafter its tropical in nature, right?

Thats beyond funny. One of the reasons I do not watch TWC anymore. To call this a non tropical feature is absurd IMO.