18:00z Models start run at 30kts,Bam models go to Mexico

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cycloneye
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18:00z Models start run at 30kts,Bam models go to Mexico

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 03, 2005 2:10 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL962005) ON 20050703 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050703 1800 050704 0600 050704 1800 050705 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.7N 86.3W 19.6N 88.4W 20.6N 90.7W 21.6N 93.0W
BAMM 18.7N 86.3W 19.6N 88.3W 20.6N 90.4W 21.6N 92.6W
A98E 18.7N 86.3W 19.2N 87.6W 20.2N 89.1W 21.7N 90.8W
LBAR 18.7N 86.3W 19.6N 87.9W 21.0N 89.9W 22.6N 91.9W
SHIP 30KTS 39KTS 46KTS 53KTS
DSHP 30KTS 30KTS 32KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050705 1800 050706 1800 050707 1800 050708 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.6N 95.0W 23.9N 98.5W 24.7N 101.3W 24.9N 103.5W
BAMM 22.6N 94.6W 24.0N 98.1W 24.7N 101.5W 25.0N 104.8W
A98E 23.2N 92.8W 26.2N 96.3W 28.2N 98.0W 30.7N 96.0W
LBAR 24.3N 93.6W 27.5N 95.0W 29.7N 93.0W 31.2N 89.4W
SHIP 59KTS 66KTS 61KTS 52KTS
DSHP 45KTS 51KTS 30KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.7N LONCUR = 86.3W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 18.3N LONM12 = 85.0W DIRM12 = 296DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 17.6N LONM24 = 83.9W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

30 kts they iniciate this run but recon will tell the real story.

Image
Last edited by cycloneye on Sun Jul 03, 2005 2:12 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#2 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Jul 03, 2005 2:11 pm

Thats a powerful little distrabance we got there. 8-)
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Opal storm

#3 Postby Opal storm » Sun Jul 03, 2005 2:17 pm

Is it just me or have they shifted more towards the west?
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#4 Postby skysummit » Sun Jul 03, 2005 2:18 pm

Opal storm wrote:Is it just me or have they shifted more towards the west?


It's more west, but there's nothing to base it off of at this time.
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#5 Postby dixiebreeze » Sun Jul 03, 2005 2:20 pm

Already posted, Luis, but worth repeating, I reckon. :P
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#6 Postby jrod » Sun Jul 03, 2005 2:33 pm

I think the storm will follow one of the two upper level lows in the gulf and will not make a turn to the left. Accuweather's discussion on it sounds right on to me. Of course only time will tell.
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Derek Ortt

#7 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Jul 03, 2005 2:37 pm

those BAM models are not widely used north of 20N where the environment becomes baroclinic
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#8 Postby Air Force Met » Sun Jul 03, 2005 2:43 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:those BAM models are not widely used north of 20N where the environment becomes baroclinic


The BAM's are on crack...the can't see the way the high will eveolve over Florida...stay away from the BAM's :-)
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gkrangers

#9 Postby gkrangers » Sun Jul 03, 2005 2:45 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:those BAM models are not widely used north of 20N where the environment becomes baroclinic


The BAM's are on crack...the can't see the way the high will eveolve over Florida...stay away from the BAM's :-)
So we're definitely looking at a gulf coaster here, as long as it develops?
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#10 Postby Air Force Met » Sun Jul 03, 2005 2:55 pm

gkrangers wrote:
Air Force Met wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:those BAM models are not widely used north of 20N where the environment becomes baroclinic


The BAM's are on crack...the can't see the way the high will eveolve over Florida...stay away from the BAM's :-)
So we're definitely looking at a gulf coaster here, as long as it develops?


In weather...there is no such thing as definite...although I would say definitely a gulf coast storm...if there was such a thing...but there's not...so I won't.

:-)
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