center may be relocating

[Ivanhater]

to me, there seems to be more organization to the north and east from visible image, I've seen some different opinions and would like to see what the consensus is if any

[Anonymous]

Yes I see it too.

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like the center is relocating more to the NE

[vacanechaser]

I agree... I think what we are seeing there though is a mid level center... That just might take over.. only time will tell.. Also, if the true low level center is where the NHC has said, it looks to me to have stalled...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane intercept Research Team

[Derek Ortt]

I fix the center at 19.0N and 86.1W. Still quite broad, which will be to its benefit as it crosses the Yucatan

[jrod]

Its amazing how many storms make it through the Yucatan channel. This looks like it may be yet another one.

[skysummit]

Derek, do you think it's possible for another center to reform? Count out the surface obs. What do you think?

[Derek Ortt]

cannot count out the surface obs

I am not really convinced one will reform here as the convection is consolidating around our current surface low

[skysummit]

Ok, I understand.

[Air Force Met]

I fix the center at 19.0N and 86.1W. Still quite broad, which will be to its benefit as it crosses the Yucatan

Hey Derek...do you see it as a weak LLC and maybe a pretty sharp inverted trof towards the NNE from the LLC? Seems to me that is what is going on...which means the center may have some tendancy to want to work towards the MLC...

[Derek Ortt]

I see it all for the most part as a broad LLC, which means we could get final consolidation over the Yucatan anywhere within a 50NM radius

[corpusbreeze]

If you look east of the very northern part of Belize you can see a circulation. Also on vis sat you can almost see the low level clouds starting to wrap around. This to me is the strongest of any low.

[Javlin]

If the supposed LLC goes over land and weakens is it possible for the MLC to take over?When you look at the big picture the MLC seems to be the dominating feature.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

Then you look at the floater you see what is most likely the center where NHC says.Still have a couple of weak and small ULL lows to the N and NW of the system.And the troph coming in between them.

[corpusbreeze]

If the supposed LLC goes over land and weakens is it possible for the MLC to take over?When you look at the big picture the MLC seems to be the dominating feature.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

Then you look at the floater you see what is most likely the center where NHC says.Still have a couple of weak and small ULL lows to the N and NW of the system.And the troph coming in between them.

At this stage of the game llc can be relocated in a matter of hours. I dont know how many times Ive gone to bed with the NHC saying the center was at one point, to wake up and find they have relocated it 100 miles someplace else. But in my opinion is the llc is strongest of the two.

[KatDaddy]

Just eyeing the last 12 VIS frames of the Invest. I do not see any circulation near Belize. I clearly see the circulation SE of Cancun. I also noted numerous showers developing within the circulation. With this being such a broad system, survival across the Yucatan is likely. This has the potential to be the first hurricane of the 2005 season.

[wxman57]

Just eyeing the last 12 VIS frames of the Invest. I do not see any circulation near Belize. I clearly see the circulation SE of Cancun. I also noted numerous showers developing within the circulation. With this being such a broad system, survival across the Yucatan is likely. This has the potential to be the first hurricane of the 2005 season.

Recon reports say otherwise. Lowest pressure is near 18.2N/86l7W ESE-SE winds north of that point at every report, and higher pressures. There may be some circulation aloft up there, but nothing at the surface. It's difficult to ascertain a center using satellite, as there are so many cloud elemets to follow and they're all at different heights.

[Ivanhater]

so which one is the official center?

[Hurricaneman]

The one off of Belize

[KatDaddy]

Yes now I see it. Its where the explosive convection has just started E of Belize.

[Ivanhater]

i dont know on satellite it just looks obvious its near the northern yucatan