First Advisory for TD#3

[cycloneye]

WTNT23 KNHC 032038
TCMAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032005
2100Z SUN JUL 03 2005

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA...THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 87.1W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 87.1W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 86.5W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.0N 88.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.2N 89.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.9N 91.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 23.7N 92.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 27.0N 95.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 30.5N 95.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 33.0N 94.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 87.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

[Hurricaneman]

It was no suprise to me that it was upgraded

[Wnghs2007]

Yeah, here is the Wunderground image.

\

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... _5day.html

[senorpepr]

[stormie_skies]

[cycloneye]

WTNT33 KNHC 032044
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005

...THIRD DEPRESSION OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON FORMS IN THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN SEA...

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA...THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED JUST TO
THE EAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 87.1 WEST OR ABOUT 80
MILES... 125 KM... EAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO AND ABOUT 145 MILES...
235 KM...SOUTH OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH
...13 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WILL
BE MOVING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY...WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER LAND.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND EXTREME WESTERN CUBA.

REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...18.4 N... 87.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
10 PM CDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

[Opal storm]

Looks like a 100% Texas storm.They need the rain for sure.

[Roxy]

[loon]

What is going to keep it only at a TS? I'm surprised as bath tub as the GOM is , we don't see atleast a CAT1...

stange

[tw861]

Freeport, Tx .......Show me the rain baby.

[senorpepr]

What is going to keep it only at a TS? I'm surprised as bath tub as the GOM is , we don't see atleast a CAT1...

stange

SSTs aren't the key for cyclogenesis. Typically, SSTs are warm enough any given year for strong development... it's the conditions aloft that restrict it.

[stormie_skies]

Actually, as long as it stays a storm, I won't complain a bit if the NHC is right and it heads this way .... I would LOVE a good rainy day or two, and God only knows we need it....

I'm just worried that it might get stronger....

:keepsfingerscrossed:

[Brent]

Actually, as long as it stays a storm, I won't complain a bit if the NHC is right and it heads this way .... I would LOVE a good rainy day or two, and God only knows we need it....

I'm just worried that it might get stronger....

:keepsfingerscrossed:

I am too... waters are HOT. Of course, shear could affect it, but I know Texas needs the rain badly. Let's just hope it moves at a decent clip and doesn't stall. Too much rain would be very bad...

[Hurricaneman]

Too much rain is bad

[Brent]

Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 1

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on July 03, 2005

the hurricane hunters were able to close off a low-level circulation
center...and surface observations also indicate a closed
circulation in association with the area of disturbed weather over
the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Although the deep convection has
weakened considerably in comparison to earlier today...there is
enough organization to warrant upgrading the system to tropical
depression status at this time. Given the decrease in convection
and the expectation of the cyclone moving inland over Yucatan
tonight...significant strengthening is not likely until the center
reaches the Gulf of Mexico later on Monday. Interestingly...global
models forecast little or no development of this tropical cyclone
for the next several days...and the GFDL model weakens it over the
northwest Gulf of Mexico. Notwithstanding...the upper-level winds
over the Gulf are expected to be favorable for strengthening...with
the SHIPS/GFS guidance indicating very weak shear for the next few
days. The official wind speed forecast is conservative and in
general agreement with SHIPS.

Initial motion is near 285/7. A mid-level ridge should push the
depression west-northwestward for the next day and then a gradual
turn to the right...into a weakness over the western Gulf...is
forecast. This is in general agreement with the GFDL track.

Forecaster Pasch

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 03/2100z 18.4n 87.1w 30 kt
12hr VT 04/0600z 19.0n 88.1w 30 kt...inland
24hr VT 04/1800z 20.2n 89.9w 30 kt...inland
36hr VT 05/0600z 21.9n 91.4w 35 kt
48hr VT 05/1800z 23.7n 92.9w 40 kt
72hr VT 06/1800z 27.0n 95.0w 50 kt
96hr VT 07/1800z 30.5n 95.0w 40 kt...inland
120hr VT 08/1800z 33.0n 94.5w 25 kt...inland

[loon]

What is going to keep it only at a TS? I'm surprised as bath tub as the GOM is , we don't see atleast a CAT1...

stange

SSTs aren't the key for cyclogenesis. Typically, SSTs are warm enough any given year for strong development... it's the conditions aloft that restrict it.

Right, thats why I was asking, I mean, the SSTs are good, so then shear or upper level stuff must be predicted that will keep it small...hence my question, what is supposed to keep it to just TS status?

[Andrew92]

Ahhhh ya beat me to it Brent!

My guess as for why some models don't develop it is maybe they think it will stay over land or something? If that's not it, maybe a front comes, or I dunno. I just have a gnawing feeling that this may be a hurricane.

Why? Waters are warm and shear is forecast to be low....what could inhibit strengthening besides land? Can someone please help me here? Not that I live in Texas....I'm nervous for them though and interested in this thing.

-Andrew92

[Brent]

What is going to keep it only at a TS? I'm surprised as bath tub as the GOM is , we don't see atleast a CAT1...

stange

SSTs aren't the key for cyclogenesis. Typically, SSTs are warm enough any given year for strong development... it's the conditions aloft that restrict it.

Right, thats why I was asking, I mean, the SSTs are good, so then shear or upper level stuff must be predicted that will keep it small...hence my question, what is supposed to keep it to just TS status?

Well... in the discussion it mentions that most of the models don't strengthen it at all, so they are relying on SHIPS for the intensity forecast.

[Houstonia]

Actually, as long as it stays a storm, I won't complain a bit if the NHC is right and it heads this way .... I would LOVE a good rainy day or two, and God only knows we need it....

I'm just worried that it might get stronger....

:keepsfingerscrossed:

I personally would welcome a hurricane. The upper Texas coast is overdue for a hurricane. Maybe if we actually GET one, we can relax for a few years! Plus, a good blow would clean up the place a little bit.

Look we're going to have one eventually - why not just have the storm and get it over with!!

[Derek Ortt]

problem with the models is that the feature does not exist in any of them, except for the Canadian

typical NCEP poor data assimilation into the GFS