Recon Reports

[Hurricaneman]

We have a depression

[wxman57]

And the first vortex:

URNT12 KNHC 032026
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 03/19:55:00Z
B. 18 deg 21 min N
087 deg 02 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 20 kt
E. 040 deg 120 nm
F. 127 deg 019 kt
G. 084 deg 034 nm
H. EXTRAP 1009 mb
I. 22 C/ 215 m
J. 24 C/ 302 m
K. 23 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 1
O. 0.02 / 5 nm
P. AF308 01DDA INVEST OB 10
MAX FL WIND 19 KT NE QUAD 19:41:30 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.

[Anonymous]

So when will recon go back again?

[wxman57]

So when will recon go back again?

I estimate the center will move off the west coast of the Yucatan before 18Z Monday, so possibly by mid day Monday.

[Wnghs2007]

And the first vortex:

So can you use one of your satilite images to pin point where they are saying the LLC is, lol, with like an L . If you could I would very much appreciate it!

[senorpepr]

Time: 19:55:00Z
Latitude: 18.4°N
Longitude: 87°W
Location: 101 mi NE of Belize City, Belize
Minimum height at NA mb NA m
Est. Surface Winds Observed: 23 mph
Distance and bearing from center to max surface wind: 138 mi NE (40°)
Maximum flight level wind: SE (127°) @ 22 mph
Distance and bearing from center to max flight level wind: 39 mi E (84°)
Sea level pressure: 1009 mb
Max flight level temperature outside the eye: 72°F at 705 feet
Max flight level temperature inside the eye: 75°F at 991 feet
Dewpoint temperature inside the eye: 73°F
Eye character: NA
Eye shape: NA
Eye diameter: NA
Fix determined by: Penetration Wind Pressure Temperature at 1,500 ft
Navigation / Met Accuracy: 0.02 / 5 nm
AF308 01DDA INVEST OB 10
MAX FL WIND 19 KT NE QUAD 19:41:30 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.

(Sorry on the delay for the decoding. Earlier I was driving to work. The delay on the vortex message was from me ordering some Mexican food for the night. )

[Anonymous]

Thanks wxman57

[senorpepr]

Inbound Ob #1: 18.6°N 086.3°W; Sea level pressure: 1011 mb; Temp: 72°F; Dewpt: 72°F; Flt level wind: SE (140°) @ 18 mph
Inbound Ob #2: 18.3°N 086.5°W; Sea level pressure: 1010 mb; Temp: 70°F; Dewpt: 70°F; Flt level wind: S (170°) @ 18 mph
Inbound Ob #3: 18.2°N 086.8°W; Sea level pressure: 1010 mb; Temp: 75°F; Dewpt: 75°F; Flt level wind: SSW (200°) @ 14 mph
Max flight level wind (Inbound): 22 mph at 18.4°N 086.4°W
First inbound ob surface wind: SE (120°) @ 12 mph

Outbound Ob #1: 18.3°N 087.3°W; Sea level pressure: 1010 mb; Temp: 75°F; Dewpt: 75°F; Flt level wind: VRB @ 6 mph
Outbound Ob #2: 18.0°N 087.5°W; Sea level pressure: 1010 mb; Temp: 75°F; Dewpt: 75°F; Flt level wind: VRB @ 6 mph
Outbound Ob #3: 17.8°N 087.6°W; Sea level pressure: 1010 mb; Temp: 75°F; Dewpt: 75°F; Flt level wind: WNW (300°) @ 13 mph
Max flight level wind (Outbound): 15 mph at 18.4°N 087.1°W
Last outbound ob surface wind: VRB @ 6 mph
AF308 01DDA INVEST OB 12

[gkrangers]

And now we wait for it to emerge into the gulf...

[wxman57]

So can you use one of your satilite images to pin point where they are saying the LLC is, lol, with like an L . If you could I would very much appreciate it!

Here ya go:

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/carib16.gif">

[senorpepr]

Time: 2040Z
Latitude: 17.7°N
Longitude: 86.5°W
Location: 120 mi E of Belize City, Belize
Turbulence: Occasional Moderate
Flight condition: Clear
Pressure Altitude: 1000 feet
Flight level wind: S (170°) @ 14 mph
Temperature: 75°F
Dewpoint: 75°F
Weather: Rainshowers
Sea level pressure: 1010 mb
Surface Wind: VRB @ 6 mph
Remarks: AF308 01DDA INVEST OB 13

[senorpepr]

A little out of order coming through the pipe....



Time: 2015Z
Latitude: 17.7°N
Longitude: 87.7°W
Location: 42 mi ENE of Belize City, Belize
Turbulence: None
Flight condition: Clear
Pressure Altitude: 1000 feet
Flight level wind: VRB @ 6 mph
Temperature: 77°F
Dewpoint: 73°F
Weather: Broken Skies
Sea level pressure: 1010 mb
Surface Wind: VRB @ 6 mph
Remarks: AF308 01DDA INVEST OB 11

[senorpepr]

Time: 20:57:50Z
Latitude: 18.5°N
Longitude: 87.2°W
Location: 98 mi NE of Belize City, Belize
Minimum height at NA mb NA m
Est. Surface Winds Observed: NA
Distance and bearing from center to max surface wind: NA
Maximum flight level wind: SSW (204°) @ 16 mph
Distance and bearing from center to max flight level wind: 37 mi SE (142°)
Sea level pressure: 1008 mb
Max flight level temperature outside the eye: 75°F at 997 feet
Max flight level temperature inside the eye: 75°F at 994 feet
Dewpoint temperature inside the eye: 75°F
Eye character: NA
Eye shape: NA
Eye diameter: NA
Fix determined by: Penetration Wind Pressure Temperature at 1,500 ft
Navigation / Met Accuracy: 0.03 / 5 nm
AF308 01DDA INVEST OB 14
MAX FL WIND 19 KT NE QUAD 19:41:30 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.

[kevin]

1008... well thats not too low I guess. Still shows a bit of organization.

[senorpepr]

Another reminder for folks in search of raw recon reports... check out S2K's recon page at http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/recon.htm

The page is set to auto-refresh as well!

[gkrangers]

1008... well thats not too low I guess. Still shows a bit of organization.

Well, its more important that the pressure is either dropping, or they found lower pressure in another area of the depression. Not the pressure level itself.

[kevin]

Also the gradient is important. There was only a 3mb gradient, now there is (presumably) a 4mb gradient.

[senorpepr]

Time: 2130Z
Latitude: 18.5°N
Longitude: 85.4°W
Location: 200 mi SSE of Cancun, Mexico
Turbulence: Occasional Moderate
Flight condition: Clear
Pressure Altitude: 1000 feet
Flight level wind: SSE (160°) @ 20 mph
Temperature: 75°F
Dewpoint: 75°F
Weather: Rainshowers
Sea level pressure: 1011 mb
Surface Wind: S (160°) @ 17 mph
Remarks: 5
RMK AF308 01DDA INVEST OB 15

[Derek Ortt]

got a 33KT FL wind on the outbound leg

this at least justifies a 25KT intensity. still not seeing anything justifying a 30KT intensity

[senorpepr]

Inbound Ob #1: 17.7°N 086.5°W; Sea level pressure: 1010 mb; Temp: 75°F; Dewpt: 75°F; Flt level wind: S (170°) @ 14 mph
Inbound Ob #2: 17.9°N 086.7°W; Sea level pressure: 1010 mb; Temp: 75°F; Dewpt: 75°F; Flt level wind: S (190°) @ 14 mph
Inbound Ob #3: 18.1°N 086.9°W; Sea level pressure: 1010 mb; Temp: 75°F; Dewpt: 75°F; Flt level wind: SSW (210°) @ 13 mph
Inbound Ob #4: 18.3°N 087.1°W; Sea level pressure: 1009 mb; Temp: 75°F; Dewpt: 75°F; Flt level wind: VRB @ 6 mph
Max flight level wind (Inbound): 16 mph at 18.4°N 087.2°W
First inbound ob surface wind: VRB @ 6 mph

Outbound Ob #1: 18.6°N 086.9°W; Sea level pressure: 1009 mb; Temp: 73°F; Dewpt: 73°F; Flt level wind: S (170°) @ 16 mph
Outbound Ob #2: 18.5°N 086.7°W; Sea level pressure: 1009 mb; Temp: 72°F; Dewpt: 72°F; Flt level wind: SE (140°) @ 29 mph
Outbound Ob #3: 18.5°N 086.4°W; Sea level pressure: 1010 mb; Temp: 70°F; Dewpt: 70°F; Flt level wind: SE (140°) @ 21 mph
Outbound Ob #4: 18.5°N 086.1°W; Sea level pressure: 1011 mb; Temp: 73°F; Dewpt: 73°F; Flt level wind: SSE (160°) @ 18 mph
Outbound Ob #5: 18.5°N 085.9°W; Sea level pressure: 1011 mb; Temp: 75°F; Dewpt: 73°F; Flt level wind: SSE (160°) @ 17 mph
Outbound Ob #6: 18.5°N 085.6°W; Sea level pressure: 1011 mb; Temp: 75°F; Dewpt: 73°F; Flt level wind: S (170°) @ 16 mph
Max flight level wind (Outbound): 38 mph at 18.5°N 086.6°W
Last outbound ob surface wind: S (160°) @ 17 mph
AF308 01DDA INVEST OB 16