BREAKING NEWS:Special Statement,Cindy before reaching Yuc

[senorpepr]

I thought I covered stacked systems and the boobs present in the gulf earlier today.

Interesting...

[DoctorHurricane2003]

I am VERY VERY concerned about who sees this system based on shear projection charts, SSTs, and no dry air in the vicinity of 03L. I will not issue an intensity forecast right now, but I will say that I think this might be a horrible system....and that I hope that it does not head to Houston.

[Brent]

I dont want to tip my hand for the 11 p.m. forecast...


but I can say the new landfall intensity will be SIGNIFICANTLY higher than 70KT

Why? Because the LLC might relocate? I thought that might affect the track, but the landfall intensity too?

I think it's because it's better organized... the LLC is under deep convection right now. The more it strengthens now, the stronger it is in the Gulf and therefore, stronger at landfall.

[southerngale]

I thought I covered stacked systems and the boobs present in the gulf earlier today.

Interesting...

Not surprising senor picks that to reply to.

[Derek Ortt]

if it hits the Yucatan stronger... it means it emerges into the GOM stronger, meaning stronger at LF

[MWatkins]

what does ‘‘stacked’’ mean AirForce Met?

It means getting the low-level circulation vertically lined up with the
mid-level curculation, hence, stacked.

Eggzactly.

A big problem with developing systems...and we have seen this all the time...is that the mid-level center of circulation is displaced from the low center. When this happens the system competes with itself...slowing down the development process as the MLC dissipates and the system has to create a new one...or the low level center weakens and a new one forms near the mid-level support.

The later scenario tends to faster development than the former...and generally if the 2 features can stay lined up well...then the system will go ahead and start getting busy.

MW

[JTD]

I am VERY VERY concerned about who sees this system based on shear projection charts, SSTs, and no dry air in the vicinity of 03L. I will not issue an intensity forecast right now, but I will say that I think this might be a horrible system....and that I hope that it does not head to Houston.

Category 4 or above or not that bad?

[southerngale]

Ok, thanks Brent and Derek. So if it relocates further north or NNE, do ya'll think the track would shift too?

[Derek Ortt]

no, its not going to shift that far NE and still cannot recurve until it gets to the western extent of the ridge

[Brent]

Ok, thanks Brent and Derek. So if it relocates further north or NNE, do ya'll think the track would shift too?

I am not sure... personally, the current track with the weaker and more ill-defined LLC earlier was probably too far right(weaker systems like to stay to the left), so it may not go too much farther right...

[mikey mike]

Thanks all for the explanations.In other words this thing is getting stronger than first thought?

[Derek Ortt]

in other words

Houston, we have a problem

[gkrangers]

Thanks all for the explanations.In other words this thing is getting stronger than first thought?

These basically are first thoughts. Its hard to make an accurate intensity forecast until it raeches the GOM. Sor ight now, the idea is, if its stronger now, itll be stronger later.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

I'm not ready to prog the intensity or say anything specific. I will give expected intensity trends in a later posting tonight.

[ALhurricane]

Let's see... we have G-IV mission tomorrow... the GFS will get the data for tomorrow night's 00z run which means...

Landfall Tampa Bay!!

j/k everybody!! I just had to get that out of my system after the complete GFS disaster, especially with Frances last year.

I truly do hope and anticipate this mission will help the models tomorrow.

[Derek Ortt]

well, it likely wont

this is a couple of days before the date in which ncep was set to stop assimilating inner core dropsondes. However, since the GFS cannot even see anything there, maybe it needs all of the core dropsondes it can get

[Cookiely]

Let's see... we have G-IV mission tomorrow... the GFS will get the data for tomorrow night's 00z run which means...

Landfall Tampa Bay!!

j/k everybody!! I just had to get that out of my system after the complete GFS disaster, especially with Frances last year.

I truly do hope and anticipate this mission will help the models tomorrow.

I knew you were joking but my heart did a double back flip anyway. Let's not say the words Landfall and Tampa Bay in the same sentence.

[LAwxrgal]

I dont want to tip my hand for the 11 p.m. forecast...


but I can say the new landfall intensity will be SIGNIFICANTLY higher than 70KT

I would agree...

Well, I agree with the poster above. Cindy DEFINITELY has my attention now.

[Brent]

I dont want to tip my hand for the 11 p.m. forecast...


but I can say the new landfall intensity will be SIGNIFICANTLY higher than 70KT

I would agree...

Well, I agree with the poster above. Cindy DEFINITELY has my attention now.

This is starting to remind me of Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne and the other storms in between and how I had to choose which one to be focused on.

[AL Chili Pepper]

I dont want to tip my hand for the 11 p.m. forecast...


but I can say the new landfall intensity will be SIGNIFICANTLY higher than 70KT

I would agree...

Well, I agree with the poster above. Cindy DEFINITELY has my attention now.

This is starting to remind me of Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne and the other storms in between and how I had to choose which one to be focused on.

The Rainman could read the left page with one eye and the right page with the other. I'm trying to learn how to do it with the satellite loop with no luck so far.