7pm TD 3

[Brent]

Tropical Depression Three Intermediate Advisory Number 1a

Statement as of 7:00 PM CDT on July 03, 2005

...Tropical depression in the northwestern Caribbean Sea
getting better organized...
...Tropical Storm Warning issued for portions of Yucatan...

A 630 PM CDT...2330z...the government of Mexico has issued a
Tropical Storm Warning for the East Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula
from Punta Allen southward to Chetumal...including the Banco
chincorro islands.

Interests in the northwestern Caribbean Sea...the Yucatan Peninsula
...And the southern Gulf of Mexico should closely monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 7 PM CDT...0000z...the center of Tropical Depression Three was
located near latitude 18.6 north... longitude 87.2 west or about 80
miles... 125 km...east of Chetumal Mexico and about 140 miles...
225 km...south of Cozumel Mexico.

The depression is drifting toward the northwest near 4 mph
...6 km/hr...and this general motion is forecast to continue
tonight...with a gradual increase in forward speed expected on
Monday. On this track...the center of the depression will be
moving onshore the East Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula early Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph... 55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible and the depression
could become a tropical storm before making landfall. Some slow
weakening is likely after the cyclone moves over land on Monday.

The minimum central pressure recently reported by an Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft was 1007 mb...29.74 inches.

Rainfall totals of 5 to 8 inches are possible over the northern
Yucatan Peninsula and extreme western Cuba.

Repeating the 7 PM CDT position...18.6 N... 87.2 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 4 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 35 mph. Minimum central pressure...1007 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center
at 10 PM CDT.

Forecaster Stewart

[skysummit]

Moving Northwest near 4 and pressure down....holy smoke.

[dhweather]

I think it's trying to reform its center NE of the previous fix.

[vacanechaser]

It is not reforming... The center has slowed, and is now moving more northward than earlier.. Does not mean reforming is taking place.. Like I have read in the past, sometimes the low level center will try and tuck in under the main convection and or upper level vort max.. They be just whats going on here.. If so, Joe may be right...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team