00:00z Model tracks and plots

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE (AL032005) ON 20050704 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050704 0000 050704 1200 050705 0000 050705 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.6N 87.2W 19.8N 88.9W 21.2N 90.8W 22.6N 92.4W
BAMM 18.6N 87.2W 19.7N 88.9W 21.0N 90.7W 22.3N 92.5W
A98E 18.6N 87.2W 19.4N 88.3W 20.6N 89.7W 22.2N 91.1W
LBAR 18.6N 87.2W 19.7N 88.9W 21.4N 90.9W 23.0N 92.8W
SHIP 30KTS 38KTS 46KTS 52KTS
DSHP 30KTS 27KTS 31KTS 37KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050706 0000 050707 0000 050708 0000 050709 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 24.0N 93.9W 25.9N 96.7W 26.9N 98.6W 27.3N 99.5W
BAMM 23.5N 94.3W 25.0N 97.7W 25.7N 101.1W 25.9N 104.2W
A98E 24.0N 93.0W 27.8N 95.9W 30.5N 96.3W 32.6N 93.4W
LBAR 24.8N 94.3W 27.7N 95.4W 30.1N 93.8W 30.9N 91.0W
SHIP 58KTS 64KTS 62KTS 56KTS
DSHP 43KTS 49KTS 32KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.6N LONCUR = 87.2W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 18.0N LONM12 = 86.0W DIRM12 = 291DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 17.6N LONM24 = 84.6W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D


There is a spread of the models in their tracks when landfall is concerned.

[dhweather]

In the earlier poll for landfall, I said SE Louisiana based on synoptics and
a gut feel. The models have shifted a bit to the right, and I expect they
will do more moving to the right tomorrow.

I think we're looking at Lake Charles to Pascagoula for landfall, in my opinion.

[Wnghs2007]

It Looks like the Global Models want to recurve the system after it makes landfall off to the Northeast. They Must be seeing the cold front and developing trough that will be entering the Central Plains regions and Mississippi Valley Region around the time of Landfall.

[southerngale]

Mexico, Texas or Louisiana.

I'm sure they'll consolidate somewhere soon.

[AL Chili Pepper]

In the earlier poll for landfall, I said SE Louisiana based on synoptics and
a gut feel. The models have shifted a bit to the right, and I expect they
will do more moving to the right tomorrow.

I think we're looking at Lake Charles to Pascagoula for landfall, in my opinion.

If the LLC does relocate to the north of where the models were initiated (which was pretty far south IMO), I expect the deep layer models will trend to the right. I'm sticking with the LA coast for now...Houston to Vermillion Bay.