i have to agree with accuwx for once

[hurricanedude]

I think this is one of there more, reliable forecasts...
and its from the FREE version..

Tropical Depression Three Becoming Better Organized
Tropical Depression Three in the northwestern Caribbean continues to deepen, and tropical storm warnings have now been posted for the East Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Punta Allen to Chetumal. The center of the storm was located near 18.6 north and 87.2 west...about 80 miles east of Chetumal, Mexico, moving to the northwest at 4 mph. The strongest winds continue to be near 35 mph, and the minimum pressure is 1007 millibars (29.74 inches).

For now, the main threat from the depression is for heavy rainfall to occur over the Yucatan Peninsula over the next 36 hours as the depression moves through, as the potential exists for 5-10 inches of rainfall during this time. The depression should emerge into the western Bay of Campeche tomorrow night, which is when the best potential for strengthening will occur. That is, unless the circulation center re-forms farther north or west in the Bay of Campeche or Gulf of Mexico and becomes dominant, in which case strengthening could occur sooner. Upper-level winds will remain favorable for strengthening of this storm for the next few days at least, and the waters are warmer than usual in this area for this time of year. Therefore, eventual intensification to tropical storm strength seems likely. Should the depression reach tropical storm strength, it will be named Cindy.

Once the storm reaches the Bay of Campeche or Gulf of Mexico, the computer models generally indicate a track northwestward with a gradual curve toward the north and eventually the northeast and finally threatening the upper Texas or Louisiana coastlines by Wednesday night or Thursday. Conditions may remain favorable for strengthening during this time, and the worst case scenario would be for a hurricane to be bearing down on this area Wednesday evening. So, all with interests along the Texas and Louisiana coastline between Galveston and New Orleans should follow the progress of this storm carefully and make plans for storm preparations should it become necessary

[wxcrazytwo]

I think this is one of there more, reliable forecasts...
and its from the FREE version..

Tropical Depression Three Becoming Better Organized
Tropical Depression Three in the northwestern Caribbean continues to deepen, and tropical storm warnings have now been posted for the East Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Punta Allen to Chetumal. The center of the storm was located near 18.6 north and 87.2 west...about 80 miles east of Chetumal, Mexico, moving to the northwest at 4 mph. The strongest winds continue to be near 35 mph, and the minimum pressure is 1007 millibars (29.74 inches).

For now, the main threat from the depression is for heavy rainfall to occur over the Yucatan Peninsula over the next 36 hours as the depression moves through, as the potential exists for 5-10 inches of rainfall during this time. The depression should emerge into the western Bay of Campeche tomorrow night, which is when the best potential for strengthening will occur. That is, unless the circulation center re-forms farther north or west in the Bay of Campeche or Gulf of Mexico and becomes dominant, in which case strengthening could occur sooner. Upper-level winds will remain favorable for strengthening of this storm for the next few days at least, and the waters are warmer than usual in this area for this time of year. Therefore, eventual intensification to tropical storm strength seems likely. Should the depression reach tropical storm strength, it will be named Cindy.

Once the storm reaches the Bay of Campeche or Gulf of Mexico, the computer models generally indicate a track northwestward with a gradual curve toward the north and eventually the northeast and finally threatening the upper Texas or Louisiana coastlines by Wednesday night or Thursday. Conditions may remain favorable for strengthening during this time, and the worst case scenario would be for a hurricane to be bearing down on this area Wednesday evening. So, all with interests along the Texas and Louisiana coastline between Galveston and New Orleans should follow the progress of this storm carefully and make plans for storm preparations should it become necessary

IF this is the case, then will LA be flooded, as some are suggesting?

[gkrangers]

Well if a Hurricane, especially major hits west of New Orleans...then yeah.

[hurricanedude]

any tropical system has the risk to Flood Louisiana.......salt and fresh water flooding equally as concerning...even if the storm makes landfall in TX..that puts LA in the right part of the storm...the worse!!

[skysummit]

If a strong CAT 2 or CAT 3 hits near the Grand Isle/Terrebonne Bay area, the majority of SE La south of New Orleans will be evacuated.

[dhweather]

Agree with Accuweather? Isn't that analagous to making a deal with
the devil?

[sunny]

If a strong CAT 2 or CAT 3 hits near the Grand Isle/Terrebonne Bay area, the majority of SE La south of New Orleans will be evacuated.

Yep. We might get to see how our phased evacuation plan will work.

[cajungal]

If anything was to hit Wednesday, most people would be caught off guard. It is the 4th of July weekend. People are out getting drunk and lots are out of town. I bet nobody is keeping up with the tropics unlike me who is a weather nut. I bet hardly anybody even knows anything is out there or cares.

[LAwxrgal]

Cajungal this is SOOO true. I only found out TODAY that "Cindy" is out there... and you can bet your bottom dollar that I will be losing sleep...

but most people I know don't even have a clue she's anywhere out there... or a serious threat.

[gkrangers]

If anything was to hit Wednesday, most people would be caught off guard. It is the 4th of July weekend. People are out getting drunk and lots are out of town. I bet nobody is keeping up with the tropics unlike me who is a weather nut. I bet hardly anybody even knows anything is out there or cares.

Well..better Wedneday than today or tomorrow.

By Wednesday people will be back to reality.

[swimaster20]

If a strong CAT 2 or CAT 3 hits near the Grand Isle/Terrebonne Bay area, the majority of SE La south of New Orleans will be evacuated.

Yep. We might get to see how our phased evacuation plan will work.

I think so too sunny.

[Scott_inVA]

Even if one buys the SHIPS (IMO, always a bad thing to do in the GOM), the progged max is 64KTS @ 72 hrs. I think the DSHP (which accounts for proximity to land) @ max 49kts is reasonable...possibly a little low.

Folks need to be careful honking a NOLA hurricane hit with this...waaaaay too soon for that

Scott

[wxman57]

My mother's name is Nola, leave her out of this, please!

Seriously, I think the NHC track is too far right. I don't buy the NW-NNW movement for the first 24 hours, so I think it'll track farther left of the NHC forecast at first then hook northward. Lower to middle Texas coast seems more likely for landfall.

[One Eye]

JB's looking right also with his track of possible Cindy. Eventhough I'm a big critic of JB and accuweather's hype, they might be on to something

[gkrangers]

On to something? This is the same thing everyone else is saying, including the NHC...

[hurricanedude]

JB also honking on the system north of the atlantic wave saying a storm forming between bermuda and Puerto Rico heading west to affect the SE coast??? dont know where he gets this, but good for him....he has ESP..LOL

[Scott_inVA]

My mother's name is Nola, leave her out of this, please!

Seriously, I think the NHC track is too far right. I don't buy the NW-NNW movement for the first 24 hours, so I think it'll track farther left of the NHC forecast at first then hook northward. Lower to middle Texas coast seems more likely for landfall.

Gee, I was just "congratulating" TPC for the intermediate advisory shift to the east as I believe that's the appropriate trend.

I'm irked the globals remain asleep at the switch with this but perhaps the 0Z's will shed some light.

Scott

[Scott_inVA]

JB also honking on the system north of the atlantic wave saying a storm forming between bermuda and Puerto Rico heading west to affect the SE coast??? dont know where he gets this, but good for him....he has ESP..LOL

I noticed the 6Z and 12Z GFS were jumpy on this while no-dozing with TD3.

[bevgo]

St this point it is waaaay too early to say LA, TX, MS, where-ever. If this did hit NO though yes there will be flooding. A heavy spring Thunderstorm can cause flooding in NO. I was on the Westbank this afternoon and a thunderstorm hit. Manhattan Blvd. had heavy ponding on the roads in just 10 minutes.