From Lake Charles NWS Disc-slight right shift (Hou. thoughts

[southerngale]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
930 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2005

NHC WILL BE ADJUSTING TRACK OF TD3 A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT THIS
EVE...ULTIMATELY TAKING THE CNTR OF WHAT WILL BE TS CINDY A LITTLE
CLOSER TO THE WRN ZONES ON WED. HOWEVER WILL NOT BE ADJUSTING THE
ZONES/GRIDS TO ACCOUNT ATTM.




http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lch/cgi-bin/pro ... &version=0

[cajungal]

Did they seem concerned? New Orleans mets here don't seem concerned. Say weak TS at most and won't effect us much here. They say Galveston is the most likely landfall.

[southerngale]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1001 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2005



ON TO THE MORE INTERESTING STUFF...TD #3 ON THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN. SOUNDS LIKE THE TPC FORECAST WILL REMAIN SIMILAR WITH THE
STORM MOVING OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN 7 PM TOMORROW
NEAR MERIDA. THEN NORTHWEST TOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AS IT
TRACKS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF IT MAY INGEST A GOOD DEAL OF MID
LEVEL DRY AIR FROM THE WEST AND SOME SHEAR. THEIR FORECAST SHOWS
STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM WED
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. WE SHALL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON IT AS
TREKS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO SEE WHAT
IMPACT IT HAS ON THE SYSTEM. THE 18Z MODEL RUNS APPEARED TO HAVE
UNDERFORECAST THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGES OVER FLORIDA AND OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO AND SW U.S.

[GalvestonDuck]

I'm guessing that we'll know more after it crosses the Yucatan and hits water again. Until then, the path won't be easy to determine.

[SouthernWx]

I'd advise all coastal residents between south Texas and SE Louisiana to closely monitor the depression....particularly those living between Freeport and Vermillion Bay. As NHC forecaster Stewart alluded to in the 11 p.m. discussion, there is going to likely be a "weakness" left behind by a vigorous trough around 94-95 west longitude...where IMO TD 3 aka Cindy will most likely recurve and impact the coastline. That's the area between Cameron and Galveston Island.....with Sabine Pass right smack dab in the middle.

As for intensity, there are a couple of possibilities....one being this depression begins to deepen over the GOM but only gets to 50-60 mph or so before U.S. landfall due to dry air entrainment. The other possibility is the progged excellent outflow combined with a very warm sst enviroment overcomes the dry air and we end up with a hurricane, and possibly a significant one (100+ mph) heading toward the upper Texas or southwestern Louisiana coastline.

It's certainly something to be concerned about, and I believe any Gulf coast forecaster "downplaying" this as a weak TS with no possibility of strengthening is doing his viewers a disservice. The disbelief that a powerful hurricane could slam into SW Louisiana so early in the season is why so many died during Audrey; those folks couldn't believe a category 4 hurricane was approaching the coast in late June.....but it was

PW

My hurricane 05' site
http://community-2.webtv.net/SouthernWx61/Hurricane

[southerngale]

Sabine Pass would put it right where Bonnie hit in 1986 and into Beaumont. If it's a weak TS that just brings us rain, I hope you're right. If it's a hurricane with damaging winds, I hope you're wrong.

We desperately need the rain, but don't need the damage.

[gkrangers]

There is a nice happy medium between underplaying and overplaying.

TV Mets need to take more of an initiative in providing their own thoughts, and espcially the thoughts of the NHC Discussions.

Right now with it over land (or about to be neway) it casts alot of uncertainty, so the official intensity has to be kept down. But, its clear the NHC thinks its possible for the storm to be stronger and so do plenty of other mets.

Might make all the difference in the world to someone if they hear "Right now the official forecast brings Cindy ashore as a TS, but there is the possibility that Cindy could become a Hurricane."

Maybe that person is more likely to follow the news a little more closely than someone who just hears "Weak TS". Tropical storms aren't taken seriously...and for the most part don't wreak havoc, unless they spawn hellish flooding scenarios.

I guess I'm rambling tho...