10pm TD 3-1006 mb

[Brent]

Tropical Depression Three Forecast/Advisory Number 2

Statement as of 03:00Z on July 04, 2005

a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the East Coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula from Punta Allen southward to Chetumal...
including the Banco chincorro islands.

Interests in the northwestern Caribbean Sea...the Yucatan Peninsula
...And the southern Gulf of Mexico should closely monitor the
progress of this system.

Tropical depression center located near 18.9n 87.5w at 04/0300z
position accurate within 30 nm

present movement toward the northwest or 305 degrees at 8 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 1006 mb
Max sustained winds 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 18.9n 87.5w at 04/0300z
at 04/0000z center was located near 18.6n 87.2w

forecast valid 04/1200z 19.7n 88.6w...inland
Max wind 30 kt...gusts 40 kt.

Forecast valid 05/0000z 21.1n 90.1w...inland
Max wind 30 kt...gusts 40 kt.

Forecast valid 05/1200z 22.9n 91.8w
Max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.
34 kt... 65ne 65se 25sw 65nw.

Forecast valid 06/0000z 25.0n 93.3w
Max wind 45 kt...gusts 55 kt.
34 kt... 75ne 75se 40sw 75nw.

Forecast valid 07/0000z 28.5n 94.5w
Max wind 55 kt...gusts 65 kt.
50 kt... 30ne 30se 20sw 30nw.
34 kt... 90ne 90se 60sw 90nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 08/0000z 31.0n 93.5w...inland
Max wind 35 kt...gusts 45 kt.

Outlook valid 09/0000z 33.0n 91.0w...dissipating inland
Max wind 25 kt...gusts 35 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 18.9n 87.5w

next advisory at 04/0900z

forecaster Stewart

[Brent]

Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 2

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on July 03, 2005

during the past 6 hours...a strong convective burst has developed
over the low-level center indicated by the last recon report...
which also indicated a central pressure of 1007 mb -- a drop of 2 mb
in 2.5 hours. Radar reports from the recon aircraft also indicated
significant banding had developed to the east and north of the
center. Given the sharp increase in the central deep convection...
the cyclone could easily be at tropical storm strength. The
intensity will be maintained at 30 kt...despite satellite intensity
estimates of only 25 kt..mainly to see if the current convective
trend continues for another 3 to 6 hours.

Initial motion estimate is 305/08. The depression has made a slight
jog to the right...which may be due to redevelopment closer to the
deep convection and/or some weak binary interaction with a mid- to
upper-level circulation located to the north over the Yucatan
Channel. All of the global model agree that the latter feature is
not expected to be a significant steering factor as it weakens and
lifts out to the north-northwest. All of the global models and the
GFDL also agree that the subtropical ridge lying east-west along
28n latitude from Florida across the northern Gulf of Mexico will
remain in place through the period. A vigorous shortwave trough
currently over Arkansas and Louisiana is expected to move quickly
eastward...but in its wake leave a weakness in the ridge axis over
the northwestern Gulf along 94-95w longitude. This is expected to
be the path of least resistance for the cyclone to take until it
nears the Texas-Louisiana coast and is turned sharply northeast or
even eastward as the system encounters moderate upper-level
westerlies. The official track is a little to the right of the
previous track...and to the left of the 18z GFDL model run.
Little change in intensity is expected while the cyclone is over the
Yucatan through 24 hours. After that...the combination of weak
vertical shear of less than 8 kt and warm SSTs near 29c should
allow for at least moderate intensification. The upper-level flow
pattern actually favors more significant strengthening as indicated
by the SHIPS model...which brings the cyclone to hurricane strength
by 72 hours. However...there is one possible inhibiting factor...
which is dry mid-level air of 30-40 percent humidity possibly
getting getting entrained into the system from the west after 36-48
hours. The intensity forecast remains similar to the previous
forecast and slightly less than the SHIPS model.

Forecaster Stewart

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 04/0300z 18.9n 87.5w 30 kt
12hr VT 04/1200z 19.7n 88.6w 30 kt...inland
24hr VT 05/0000z 21.1n 90.1w 30 kt...inland
36hr VT 05/1200z 22.9n 91.8w 40 kt
48hr VT 06/0000z 25.0n 93.3w 45 kt
72hr VT 07/0000z 28.5n 94.5w 55 kt
96hr VT 08/0000z 31.0n 93.5w 35 kt...inland
120hr VT 09/0000z 33.0n 91.0w 25 kt...dissipating inland

[cycloneye]

The forecast track is a little bit to the right from the 5 Pm one.

[LAwxrgal]

I only skimmed through the discussion.

Stewart is the man.

He is saying everything we've been talking about here: i.e, the low pressure relocating around the center, the drop in pressure, and its jog to the right. Very interesting.

Sounds to me like he's hinting at models shifting to the right a bit as well.

[Ixolib]

there is one possible inhibiting factor...
which is dry mid-level air of 30-40 percent humidity possibly
getting getting entrained into the system from the west after 36-48
hours.

Dry Air - The most destructive thing I've seen that can take a serious storm to a quiet mouse in very little time...

[southerngale]

What are the odds of the track shifting quite dramatically one way or the other and this not coming in near me? I know the tracks usually shift a lot.

[Brent]

What a sharp turn!!

[gkrangers]

Before the "why are they so conservative about the intensity"....the NHC CANNOT forecast a blob to be a significant hurricane right off the bat.

I wouldn't expect them to be bullish, if at all, until it moves into the GOM.

Maybe the mets here can elaborate on the dry air he mentions?

[feederband]

"nears the Texas-Louisiana coast and is turned sharply northeast or
even eastward "

[Brent]

Tropical Depression Three Advisory Number 2

Statement as of 10:00 PM CDT on July 03, 2005

...Tropical Depression Three continues to get better organized as
it nears the East Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula...

a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the East Coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula from Punta Allen southward to Chetumal...
including the Banco chincorro islands.

Interests in the northwestern Caribbean Sea...the Yucatan Peninsula
...And the southern Gulf of Mexico should closely monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 10 PM CDT...0300z...the center of Tropical Depression Three was
located near latitude 18.9 north... longitude 87.5 west or about 60
miles... 95 km... east-northeast of Chetumal Mexico and about 115
miles... 190 km...south-southwest of Cozumel Mexico.

The depression is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph
...15 km/hr...and this general motion is forecast to continue
with a slight increase in forward speed expected on Monday. On
this track...the center of the depression will be moving onshore
the East Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula early Monday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph... 55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is still possible and the
depression could become a tropical storm before it makes landfall.
Some slow weakening is likely after the cyclone moves over land on
Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb...29.71 inches.

Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches are possible over the central and
northern Yucatan Peninsula...and extreme western Cuba.

Repeating the 10 PM CDT position...18.9 N... 87.5 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 9 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 35 mph. Minimum central pressure...1006 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 1 am CDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 4 am CDT.

Forecaster Stewart