SHIFTING EAST

[gkrangers]

gkrangers,
Please don't take this as a flame or any type of bashing, but the title of the thread does say "Shifting East" in my mind this does not even remotely imply the the storm is Moving East. I thought the the discussion was well thought out and backed up by the logic and analysis that wxboy felt was relevant. I find that on this board shooting down someones "forecast" because it does not agree with our own opinions is counterproductive. Yesterday or the day before one of our best professional mets said that " this system has about a .00000001 % chance of developing" yet the storm has developed and quite significantly. Another poster this one an amature said that it would develop and probably become a TD before the yucatan and it has. Our best minds put a lot of effort into thinking about all of the complicated variables that determine the outcome of these systems and I think that it is wise to listen to all posters about their ideas. Personally I do not have the knowledge, background, or education to make such detailed forecasts and have nothing but respect for those who do. Please stop bashing every forecast that does not agree with yours.
Not being confrontational but only making a suggestion,
Thanks,
TIm

Ok..I didn't see wxboy post in this thread, so you lost me there. Its not bashing, but people often intentionally title threads and make posts that are misleading. Turning eastward is kind of a major thing. So someone stating it could turn eastward, without stating when or why, to me, is irresponsible of them.

I don't bash forecasts, and I don't expect mine to be bashed either.

This from the Discussion as part of the 10:00 PM advisory:
"steering factor as it weakens and
lifts out to the north-northwest. All of the global models and the
GFDL also agree that the subtropical ridge lying east-west along
28n latitude from Florida across the northern Gulf of Mexico will
remain in place through the period. A vigorous shortwave trough
currently over Arkansas and Louisiana is expected to move quickly
eastward...but in its wake leave a weakness in the ridge axis over
the northwestern Gulf along 94-95w longitude. This is expected to
be the path of least resistance for the cyclone to take until it
nears the Texas-Louisiana coast and is turned sharply northeast or
even eastward as the system encounters moderate upper-level
westerlies"

So an Eastward turn just before landfall IS given as a possibility

I read the discussion. I never disputed that.

[Ivanhater]

im sorry you misunderstood my post, but i see nothing wrong with my post nor do others.. sorry if you misunderstood it though

[feederband]

I think we should get some sleep....

[LSU2001]

best idea I have heard all nite feederband,
TIm

[fci]

So someone stating it could turn eastward, without stating when or why, to me, is irresponsible of them.

This from the Discussion as part of the 10:00 PM advisory:
"steering factor as it weakens and
lifts out to the north-northwest. All of the global models and the
GFDL also agree that the subtropical ridge lying east-west along
28n latitude from Florida across the northern Gulf of Mexico will
remain in place through the period. A vigorous shortwave trough
currently over Arkansas and Louisiana is expected to move quickly
eastward...but in its wake leave a weakness in the ridge axis over
the northwestern Gulf along 94-95w longitude. This is expected to
be the path of least resistance for the cyclone to take until it
nears the Texas-Louisiana coast and is turned sharply northeast or
even eastward as the system encounters moderate upper-level
westerlies"

So an Eastward turn just before landfall IS given as a possibility[/quote]I read the discussion. I never disputed that.[/quote]


All I was noting was that your assertion that somone stating a turn to the East being irresponsible was a miss-statement as it WAS stated why and when.
This board allows Everyone to be entitled to their own forecasts but you were bashing it and defending your "bash" incorrectly.

[feederband]

Jerry Spinger Show on S2K

[LSU2001]

and its not even august yet

[bevgo]

Chill!

[feederband]

By August there might be some restraining orders here.....

[Ivanhater]

my post didnt turn out the way i wanted.. i would have appreciated other opinions on the eastward shift instead of having to defend my opinion

[dixiebreeze]

This from the Discussion as part of the 10:00 PM advisory:
"steering factor as it weakens and
lifts out to the north-northwest. All of the global models and the
GFDL also agree that the subtropical ridge lying east-west along
28n latitude from Florida across the northern Gulf of Mexico will
remain in place through the period. A vigorous shortwave trough
currently over Arkansas and Louisiana is expected to move quickly
eastward...but in its wake leave a weakness in the ridge axis over
the northwestern Gulf along 94-95w longitude. This is expected to
be the path of least resistance for the cyclone to take until it
nears the Texas-Louisiana coast and is turned sharply northeast or
even eastward as the system encounters moderate upper-level
westerlies"

Based on the 11 p.m. NHC discussion, it strikes me that an easterly turn is more than just a possibility. Plus the fact, that the majority of GOM tropical storms generally veer eastward, given the climactic factors usually to the west and north.

Yes, Floridians need to be on the alert for Cindy.

[fci]

my post didnt turn out the way i wanted.. i would have appreciated other opinions on the eastward shift instead of having to defend my opinion

I agree with you.

[gulfcoastdave]

We all may guess what and where...........thing is just wait till #3 hits the GOM and then we all will have a better idea


Remember Ivan and Opal both took some nice jogs before landfall. We all will know more when the storm hits the GOM.

[gkrangers]

So someone stating it could turn eastward, without stating when or why, to me, is irresponsible of them.

This from the Discussion as part of the 10:00 PM advisory:
"steering factor as it weakens and
lifts out to the north-northwest. All of the global models and the
GFDL also agree that the subtropical ridge lying east-west along
28n latitude from Florida across the northern Gulf of Mexico will
remain in place through the period. A vigorous shortwave trough
currently over Arkansas and Louisiana is expected to move quickly
eastward...but in its wake leave a weakness in the ridge axis over
the northwestern Gulf along 94-95w longitude. This is expected to
be the path of least resistance for the cyclone to take until it
nears the Texas-Louisiana coast and is turned sharply northeast or
even eastward as the system encounters moderate upper-level
westerlies"

So an Eastward turn just before landfall IS given as a possibility

I read the discussion. I never disputed that.[/quote]


All I was noting was that your assertion that somone stating a turn to the East being irresponsible was a miss-statement as it WAS stated why and when.
This board allows Everyone to be entitled to their own forecasts but you were bashing it and defending your "bash" incorrectly.[/quote]FCI...it was stated why and when in the NHC discussion, as you quoted above. Ivanhater just said it could turn eastward, without saying why (relocation of the center to the north is not the NHC reason) or when. If you left the post alone, its misleading and confusing if you don't have the discussion to back it up. Thats all.

And once again he made no forecast, and I didn't bash a forecast. He just pulled keywords out of the NHC discussion and made a thread about them for reason.

End of story. Bash defended correctly, good night FCI.

[GalvestonDuck]

Chill!

What an interesting forecast. Although I'll defend your right to offer such a strange and seemingly improbable prognostication, I must disagree and say -- Not until at least December. I base that argument on my findings online about past SE US coastal climatology. Nevertheless, I would welcome a break in the high temps that we've been experiencing here lately (and it might feel good on my sunburn).

[feederband]

Chill!

What an interesting forecast. Although I'll defend your right to offer such a strange and seemingly improbable prognostication, I must disagree and say -- Not until at least December. I base that argument on my findings online about past SE US coastal climatology. Nevertheless, I would welcome a break in the high temps that we've been experiencing here lately (and it might feel good on my sunburn).

Belongs in winter weather forum...

[LSU2001]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



Ok I'll give you my thoughts,
It is fairly usual for landfalling systems along the northern gulf coast to turn northeast after landfall. I think that the main concern here is that the turn may come slightly before landfall. If this is the case then the ultimate landfall location may change slightly or the system may try to skirt the coast with an eastward motion. I really do not believe that the NHC was trying to imply any type of sustained eastward track. What could happen is a shift from say Port Arthur to say Cameron with the system then tracking over Southeast La. This would be bad but not unexpected from a storm landfalling to our west.
Just My thoughts and remember I am a true amature so take it for what it is simply a guess.
TIm

[gkrangers]

Ok I'll give you my thoughts,
It is fairly usual for landfalling systems along the northern gulf coast to turn northeast after landfall. I think that the main concern here is that the turn may come slightly before landfall. If this is the case then the ultimate landfall location may change slightly or the system may try to skirt the coast with an eastward motion. I really do not believe that the NHC was trying to imply any type of sustained eastward track. What could happen is a shift from say Port Arthur to say Cameron with the system then tracking over Southeast La. This would be bad but not unexpected from a storm landfalling to our west.
Just My thoughts and remember I am a true amature so take it for what it is simply a guess.
TIm

I agree with you completely. Entirely possible for a very eastward motion once its just about to the coast, especially once it gets inland. Worth keeping an eye on approaching fronts and the westerlies the NHC speaks of. I want to make it clear I have no problem with the NHC discussion. Just the wording of the original post in this thread....it was really about sentence construction more than anything. :p

Maybe it'll make landfall in LA and move back into the Atlantic off the SC coast?

[kevin]

To your respective corners.

[LSU2001]

oh NOOOOOOOOO!! Ivan part deaux revisited