Tropical Depression Three
Monday July 4, 2005 12am Eastern
Forecast # 1
Mike Naso
Tropical Depression Three continues to look better organized, and the NHC mentions it may already be a Tropical Storm. In any case, I expect this is cross the Northeastern tip of the Yucatan, and then move on a general northwesterly then northerly track, before finally moving slighty northeast towards landfall. While I was earlier looking for a movement from the NE Yucatan tip to Texas, it appears the weakness will pull it northward, and I am now thinking towards the Southwest Louisiana coastline by Thursday morning.
The system is currently 30 kts, but may be a tropical storm as we speak. In anycase, I expect it to stay at least 25 kts across the Yucatan, and I think 30 kts across is good considering the organization, and the fact that systems have a history of not weakening dramatically, and sometimes they even intensify over the Yucatan. I expect it to move back over the Gulf of Mexico by tomorrow afternoon or evening. By tomorrow night, I think it will be a Tropical Storm.
Given the impressive upper level pattern, I expect steady intensification between 24-36 hours into a Category 1 hurricane. I believe this system will be passing over the extreme warm waters in the Western Gulf of Mexico, and having excellent upper level outflow, I fear that as the inner core of a Category 1 hurricane "Cindy" tightens at 36-48 hours, it will rapidly deepen. Due to this, I expect a Category 2 hurricane of 85 kt at landfall in Southwest Louisiana on Thursday.
* Tropical Cyclones can rapidly deepen over favorable conditions such as this. This has the potential to become a dangerous hurricane as it approaches the Gulf Coast.
12 Hours: 20.1 N/ 88.9 W - 30 kt (INLAND)
24 Hours: 21.9 N/ 90.1 W - 40 kt
36 Hours: 23.9 N/ 91.1 W - 55 kt
48 Hours: 25.8 N/ 92.0 W - 70 kt
72 Hours: 28.2 N/ 92.8 W - 80 kt
96 Hours: 31.1 N/ 92.5 W - 60 kt (INLAND)
120 Hours: 31.8 N/ 90.5 W - 30 kt (INLAND)
Comments Welcome!
