97,Update=00:00z Model plots,grafic

[gkrangers]

Nice outflow...We've seen worse depressions.

[cycloneye]

Derek or anyone who may know if there is coordination between SSD and NRL about issuing invests.

[Cookiely]

At this rate we may get to the I storm by the beginning of August.

Yeah and to think I ONLY predicted 16 named storms.

I predicted 16 and thought I was stretching it just a tad, but who knows it may just exceed 16.

[Derek Ortt]

No coordination between SSD and NRL

NRL invests come from nhc

[cycloneye]

No coordination between SSD and NRL

NRL invests come from nhc

That explains why NRL does not have 97L yet.

[abajan]

At this rate we may get to the I storm by the beginning of August.

Yeah and to think I ONLY predicted 16 named storms.

And I only predicted 9...LOL!

[cycloneye]

At this rate we may get to the I storm by the beginning of August.

Yeah and to think I ONLY predicted 16 named storms.

And I only predicted 9...LOL!

abajan what are the weather conditions in Barbados?

[Hurricaneman]

I predicted 17 and that may be broken

[Swimdude]

OH WHERE OH WHERE IS THE RECON OH WHERE OH WHERE CAN THEY A SYSTEM FORMING IN THE ISLANDS TONIGHT OH WHERE OH WHERE IS THE RECON OH WHERE OH WHERE CAN THEY BE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


p.s. sorry about the caps my bad............

I'm glad we're learning to sing here these days. =)

[stormie_skies]

I think all bets are off when it comes to this season already....

[Hurricaneman]

Yea, even 1995 wasn't this active at this point in the season

[clfenwi]

00Z GFS and CMC seem to think this one will be in Florida in five or six days.

[Scorpion]

Maybe a track like Charley then?

[Ola]

New GFS at 00 is interesting. It takes the wave and develops it just suouth of Puerto Rico and then takes it across Hispaniola up torwards the Bahamas heading torwards Florida as a Tropical Cyclone

in 48 hours:


in 96 hours:


120 hours:

[clfenwi]

CMC at 144 hours

[Scorpion]

995 MB over N Florida? Looks like < 970 MB landfall then.

[Hurricaneman]

That would be a bad situation

[abajan]

abajan what are the weather conditions in Barbados?

Sorry, I only just saw your question.

Well, early last night we had some thunder & lightning with a few moderately heavy showers but no gusty winds, to my knowledge. All of this activity abated as the night wore on.

This morning the sky is pretty much overcast with some cumulonimbus clouds in the east but there's no rain at present. There aren't any unusual winds either.

[cycloneye]

Here in San Juan on this 4th of July morning we are getting scattered showers that are moving fast westward as the winds haved increased.We expect rain to increase tommorow as whatever this system will be will pass mainly south of the island.

[cycloneye]

A LARGE AND WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE...FROM 16N57W TO 13N60W
TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 11.5N62W TO 6N62W...
IS MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 20 KTS THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
THIS MORNING. IT CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT TO
OCCUR DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SQUALLY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LESSER ANTILLES...NORTHEASTERN
VENEZUELA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TODAY...
RESULTING IN PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS.
SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEASTERN
SOUTH AMERICA TO 15N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W. ISOLATED MODERATE
TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF
16N EAST OF 71W.


That position they have on the low center I think is way ahead as it is near the most convective area.But as visible pics become available there will be a better idea about the structure of this wave.