almost north movement?

[HurricaneJoe22]

Looks as it's moving almost straight north, maybe NNW, along the east coast of the Yucatan...does it look that way for you guys?

[Anonymous]

Still looks NW to me but my eyes are getting tired

[lurkerinthemidst]

that's what i'm thinking, too. looks like it could be a bank shot into the panhandle (sorry appalach)

[Wpwxguy]

Its really hard to say by looking at the infrared. Yes in the last few frames there is a northward movement to the convection. Question is where is the center. I think they have it on the south side of that ball. But you are right, it looks on infrared to be NNW. HMMM.

[vbhoutex]

Just looked and it is definitely a W to WNW movement, IMO. Be careful basing it on a few frames. I saw what I think you saw and there was a flare up of storms on the N side of the center and in fact it appears that td#3 is maintaining its strength as it moves inland as there is no let up in the convection yet.

[Air Force Met]

Looks as it's moving almost straight north, maybe NNW, along the east coast of the Yucatan...does it look that way for you guys?

The convection is firing northward...but the movement of the system is not to the north. I think the overall movement of the system is still WNW...but the center has been reforming NWward. If you look at the overall system and try to discount how the center is reforming under the MLC...then you see teh WNW motion...especially over the last few frames.

[Anonymous]

Yeah I see Nw to WNW movement also it helps sometimes for me if I use the rock feature at the top and it will move it back and forth for you helps see direction easier that way at least for me anyway.

[Wpwxguy]

Seems to me that storm tracking was easier some 4 or 5 years ago. Now it just seems crazy. LOL..........

[Wpwxguy]

AirForceMet, would you agree or disagree that we may see a more northerly track in the early part of the day. Don't want to put you on the spot, but notice the clouds in the BOC moving north and they seem to be stopping westward progress of the cloud shield. Also the large system moving down thru the mid section of the country, I believe this will be what re-enforces the trough/weakness in the northern Gulf. My personal opinion would be for a northerly track, probably NW to NNW tomorrow with the forecast track shifting a little more eastward tomorrow. Just my observation, any thoughts.
Anyones thoughts would be appreciated.

Bill

[Stormcenter]

My very "tired" eyes say it's moving NW.

[HouTXmetro]

What time will they post the 4am discussion? Will it be Central or Eastern time?

[southerngale]

What time will they post the 4am discussion? Will it be Central or Eastern time?

3:30-4am our time.

[HouTXmetro]

What time will they post the 4am discussion? Will it be Central or Eastern time?

3:30-4am our time.

Nooo, I doubt I can stay up that long. Just trying to see if they are still trending east with the forecast.

[tw861]

My very "tired" eyes say it's moving NW.

It's probably more wnw than a true NW course right now. I think the center is probably in the southern part of that blob or maybe even the southwestern edge. You really shouldn't focus on that one blob but the system as a whole and when you do that you can see that it is moving somewhere between wnw and nw.

It's pretty hard to fix a center from IR at night on a weak or developing system, it's likely that we won't have good fix until the first few visibles are in. The TPC's 1am fix was likely an extrapolation of their predicted movement and speed from the 10pm adv. The 5am position will also likely be a guess.

[Wpwxguy]

If you do use the infrared image from the floater on NHC site, look at the top and click forecast points and the forecast points will overlay for you. Looking at that it does look like it is a little north of what they said, but not extremely far. And they do update these points now and then and it may look as if it is right on track, when actually they adjusted their points.

Bill

[HouTXmetro]

Not sure, but I think it's more WNW and the center is south of the blob.

[tw861]

If you do use the infrared image from the floater on NHC site, look at the top and click forecast points and the forecast points will overlay for you. Looking at that it does look like it is a little north of what they said, but not extremely far. And they do update these points now and then and it may look as if it is right on track, when actually they adjusted their points.

Bill

Well...You've got to know where the center currently is to know whether it is north of south of the TPC forecast points. And as I said in the post above it's next to impossible to find that center on the IR tonight. You can guess and maybe get close but we won't know for sure where it is until we get some visibles.

[HouTXmetro]

If you do use the infrared image from the floater on NHC site, look at the top and click forecast points and the forecast points will overlay for you. Looking at that it does look like it is a little north of what they said, but not extremely far. And they do update these points now and then and it may look as if it is right on track, when actually they adjusted their points.

Bill

Well...You've got to know where the center currently is to know whether it is north of south of the TPC forecast points. And as I said in the post above it's next to impossible to find that center on the IR tonight. You can guess and maybe get close but we won't know for sure where it is until we get some visibles.

Do you think we will be hit or will it go east?

[Wpwxguy]

Oh I agree completely. You just cannot pick out a center of circulation on the infrared right now. Perhaps in a mature storm, but not here. I gave the points as a reference as to where they say the center should be. Just my observation that it might be a little more north.