5 Am TD 3 Advisory's

[Wnghs2007]

Tropical Depression Three Advisory Number 3

Statement as of 4:00 am CDT on July 04, 2005

...Tropical Depression Three moving northwestward across the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico...producing heavy rains...


at 4 am CDT...0900z...the government of Mexico has discontinued the
Tropical Storm Warning for the East Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula
and the Banco chincorro islands.


Interests in the northwestern Caribbean Sea...the Yucatan Peninsula
...And the southern and western Gulf of Mexico should closely
monitor the progress of this system.


For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.


At 4 am CDT...0900z...the center of Tropical Depression Three was
located near latitude 19.6 north... longitude 88.1 west or about
100 miles... 165 km...southwest of Cozumel Mexico. This is also
about 155 miles... 250 km...southeast of Progreso Mexico.


The depression is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph
...15 km/hr. This general motion is expected to continue with an
increase in forward speed during the next 24 hours. This motion
should bring the center of the depression across the Yucatan
Peninsula today...and into the southern Gulf of Mexico tonight or
Tuesday.


Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph... 55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast while the center
remains over land.


Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb...29.74 inches.


Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches are possible over the central and
northern Yucatan Peninsula...and extreme western Cuba.


Repeating the 4 am CDT position...19.6 N... 88.1 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 9 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 35 mph. Minimum central pressure...1007 mb.


The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 10 am CDT.


Forecaster Beven




$$

[Wnghs2007]

Tropical Depression Three Advisory Number 3

Statement as of 4:00 am CDT on July 04, 2005

...Tropical Depression Three moving northwestward across the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico...producing heavy rains...


at 4 am CDT...0900z...the government of Mexico has discontinued the
Tropical Storm Warning for the East Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula
and the Banco chincorro islands.


Interests in the northwestern Caribbean Sea...the Yucatan Peninsula
...And the southern and western Gulf of Mexico should closely
monitor the progress of this system.


For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.


At 4 am CDT...0900z...the center of Tropical Depression Three was
located near latitude 19.6 north... longitude 88.1 west or about
100 miles... 165 km...southwest of Cozumel Mexico. This is also
about 155 miles... 250 km...southeast of Progreso Mexico.


The depression is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph
...15 km/hr. This general motion is expected to continue with an
increase in forward speed during the next 24 hours. This motion
should bring the center of the depression across the Yucatan
Peninsula today...and into the southern Gulf of Mexico tonight or
Tuesday.


Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph... 55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast while the center
remains over land.


Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb...29.74 inches.


Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches are possible over the central and
northern Yucatan Peninsula...and extreme western Cuba.


Repeating the 4 am CDT position...19.6 N... 88.1 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 9 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 35 mph. Minimum central pressure...1007 mb.


The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 10 am CDT.


Forecaster Beven




$$

[Wnghs2007]

000
WTNT43 KNHC 040859
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON JUL 04 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE IS SHOWING INTERESTING STRUCTURAL
DEVELOPMENTS THIS MORNING. A STRONG AND PERSISTENT AREA OF
CONVECTION HAS FORMED NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CENTER OVER THE EAST
CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA...WHICH SUGGESTS THE INNER CORE IS
GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE OVERALL
CIRCULATION IS BECOMING ELONGATED NORTH-SOUTH...WITH A SECOND
VORTICITY MAXIMUM APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST OF YUCATAN. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM
TAFB AND 25 KT FROM AFWA...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30
KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 310/8. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND LARGE-SCALE MODEL ANALYSES INDICATE A DEEP LAYER RIDGE
OVER FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH A COMPLEX
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES IN
RESPONSE TO THIS PATTERN. THE MODELS THAT FORECAST AN ORGANIZED
TROPICAL CYCLONE...INCLUDING THE NOGAPS...GFDL...AND CANADIAN...
INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION SHOULD MOVE NORTHWESTWARD FOR 36-48 HR
FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWARD TURN TOWARD THE LOUISIANA OR UPPER TEXAS
COASTS BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND THE TROUGH TO THE WEST.
AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT THE DEPRESSION CIRCULATION BECOMES
ELONGATED AND DISORGANIZED AS INDICATED BY THE GFS...UKMET...AND
THE BAM MODELS. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A WEAKER SYSTEM TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD TEXAS OR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO IN THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GOES WITH THE SCENARIO FOR A STRONGER
CYCLONE...CALLING FOR THE NORTHWARD TURN. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK
IS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED
PRIMARILY ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BIT PROBLEMATIC. NONE OF THE LARGE
SCALE MODELS FORECAST SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT EVEN THOUGH ALL OF
THEM SHOW FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.
THE REASON FOR THIS IS NOT CLEAR...BUT IT MAY BE THAT THE MODELS
ARE RESPONDING TO DRY AIR CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...OR TO THE DISTORTION OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION BY THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE EAST. ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS THE CYCLONE TO REACH 50 KT
IN 72 HR...WHILE THE GFDL CALLS FOR IT TO BECOME A HURRICANE JUST
BEFORE LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SCENARIO THAT
THE CYCLONE WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FORECASTS
THE SYSTEM TO REACH 55 KT BEFORE LANDFALL AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE GFDL AND SHIPS. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT LITTLE OR NO
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR AS FORECAST BY THE GFS AND UKMET.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/0900Z 19.6N 88.1W 30 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 04/1800Z 20.5N 89.1W 30 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 05/0600Z 22.4N 90.7W 30 KT...OVER WATER
36HR VT 05/1800Z 24.1N 92.1W 40 KT
48HR VT 06/0600Z 26.2N 93.2W 45 KT
72HR VT 07/0600Z 29.0N 93.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 08/0600Z 31.5N 92.5W 35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 09/0600Z 33.0N 90.0W 25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING


$$

[crazycajuncane]

000
WTNT43 KNHC 040859
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON JUL 04 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE IS SHOWING INTERESTING STRUCTURAL
DEVELOPMENTS THIS MORNING. A STRONG AND PERSISTENT AREA OF
CONVECTION HAS FORMED NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CENTER OVER THE EAST
CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA...WHICH SUGGESTS THE INNER CORE IS
GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE OVERALL
CIRCULATION IS BECOMING ELONGATED NORTH-SOUTH...WITH A SECOND
VORTICITY MAXIMUM APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST OF YUCATAN. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM
TAFB AND 25 KT FROM AFWA...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30
KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 310/8. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND LARGE-SCALE MODEL ANALYSES INDICATE A DEEP LAYER RIDGE
OVER FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH A COMPLEX
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES IN
RESPONSE TO THIS PATTERN. THE MODELS THAT FORECAST AN ORGANIZED
TROPICAL CYCLONE...INCLUDING THE NOGAPS...GFDL...AND CANADIAN...
INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION SHOULD MOVE NORTHWESTWARD FOR 36-48 HR
FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWARD TURN TOWARD THE LOUISIANA OR UPPER TEXAS
COASTS BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND THE TROUGH TO THE WEST.
AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT THE DEPRESSION CIRCULATION BECOMES
ELONGATED AND DISORGANIZED AS INDICATED BY THE GFS...UKMET...AND
THE BAM MODELS. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A WEAKER SYSTEM TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD TEXAS OR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO IN THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GOES WITH THE SCENARIO FOR A STRONGER
CYCLONE...CALLING FOR THE NORTHWARD TURN. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK
IS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED
PRIMARILY ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BIT PROBLEMATIC. NONE OF THE LARGE
SCALE MODELS FORECAST SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT EVEN THOUGH ALL OF
THEM SHOW FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.
THE REASON FOR THIS IS NOT CLEAR...BUT IT MAY BE THAT THE MODELS
ARE RESPONDING TO DRY AIR CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...OR TO THE DISTORTION OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION BY THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE EAST. ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS THE CYCLONE TO REACH 50 KT
IN 72 HR...WHILE THE GFDL CALLS FOR IT TO BECOME A HURRICANE JUST
BEFORE LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SCENARIO THAT
THE CYCLONE WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FORECASTS
THE SYSTEM TO REACH 55 KT BEFORE LANDFALL AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE GFDL AND SHIPS. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT LITTLE OR NO
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR AS FORECAST BY THE GFS AND UKMET.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/0900Z 19.6N 88.1W 30 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 04/1800Z 20.5N 89.1W 30 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 05/0600Z 22.4N 90.7W 30 KT...OVER WATER
36HR VT 05/1800Z 24.1N 92.1W 40 KT
48HR VT 06/0600Z 26.2N 93.2W 45 KT
72HR VT 07/0600Z 29.0N 93.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 08/0600Z 31.5N 92.5W 35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 09/0600Z 33.0N 90.0W 25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING


$$

LAFAYETTE 30.20N 92.06W ~~ of intrest to myself. Wonder how those hot gulf temps will play a roll in this storm.