just seen the propabilltys
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freeport_texas22
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just seen the propabilltys
freeport is @ 17% port o'conner 16% galveston 16% new orleans 10%...any thoughts...i know these are going to change a million times...
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senorpepr
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Re: just seen the propabilltys
freeport_texas22 wrote:freeport is @ 17% port o'conner 16% galveston 16% new orleans 10%...any thoughts...i know these are going to change a million times...
Remember... that isn't for the final landfalling point.
Those are the chances of the center passing within 65nm between now and 1am on Thursday. At this point, 1am on Thursday the system will just be approaching land. I'd wait a day before those numbers start to come close to giving an idea of landfall chances.
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1AM CDT THU JUL 7 2005
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The models are in disagreement this morning you get to pick your scenario.
Nobody is talking about explosive development in the gulf yet except storm2Kers.
IF a well stacked storm develops, the models are trending right with the track towards Louisiana.
We will have to wait and see how the LLC comes off the northern Yucatan coast before the forecast gets much clearer.
You don't have to be Minnesota fats to see where a tightly wrapped storm would go.
This would not be the first storm to have favorable conditions in the gulf yet not all those storms have developed into a cane.
I am going to focus on how the high pressure ridge builds out over the gulf today.
A steeper gradient could spin Cindy up pretty quick.
Nobody is talking about explosive development in the gulf yet except storm2Kers.
IF a well stacked storm develops, the models are trending right with the track towards Louisiana.
We will have to wait and see how the LLC comes off the northern Yucatan coast before the forecast gets much clearer.
You don't have to be Minnesota fats to see where a tightly wrapped storm would go.
This would not be the first storm to have favorable conditions in the gulf yet not all those storms have developed into a cane.
I am going to focus on how the high pressure ridge builds out over the gulf today.
A steeper gradient could spin Cindy up pretty quick.
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