Having been a naysayer for two days running regarding what's now TD#3, it's time for me to take my whuppin'.
I took the contrarian view that the system would track further southwest than everybody was saying, and consequently I had it over land in the Yucatan longer, and I put it in a somewhat less favorable environment one it emerged. I based this on what appears to have been an over-reliance on the ridging structure predicted by several of the global models, primarily GFS.
With the system emerging over water north of the Yucatan now, that logic is out the window. I don't believe the outflow from the EPAC disturbance will be strong enough in the central Gulf to suppress development, so this should intensify into at least a strong TS, quite possibly a hurricane. I'm thinking in terms of the Texas / Louisiana border area as of now.
Jan
PS: Has everyone seen the monster the Canadian model spins up out of the wave approaching the islands? Straight up the Florida peninsula.
