EPAC Depression may haved caused disruption to TD#3

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 8:28 am

SW Shear from outflow from TD#4 in the EPAC may haved been the cause of more shear than expected and has disorganized the Yucatan system.

#2 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 8:32 am

Yea, I saw this last night. Those clouds were STREAMING in from the SW toward our TD.

HouTXmetro · #3 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 8:34 am

The East Pac fights Back!!

#4 Postby **Lowpressure** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 8:34 am

Outflow to the NE is certainly having an effect on the western periphery of our TD. The EPAC system seems to be moving out pretty fast, but it looks to have enough impact to steer our system more to the right of current track.

#5 Postby **drezee** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 8:34 am

rising air must go somewhere...

#6 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 8:36 am

I am surprised that the discussions from the NHC forecasters so far haved not talked about this scenario.

#7 Postby **Lowpressure** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 8:39 am

cycloneye wrote:I am surprised that the discussions from the NHC forecasters so far haved not talked about this scenario.

If our TD moves more right of path, it will effect the ultimate path of our system entering the Carib.

Website · #8 Postby **Brent** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 8:47 am

Die TD 4.

#9 Postby **tailgater** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 8:49 am

Good OBS Cycloneye the EPAC system definetly had effect and the dry air in the NW GOM and TEX may limit it somewhat in future. what your take on the system entering the Caribbean. 8-)

#10 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 8:54 am

The more north TD#3 goes the less effects from the EPAC system it will have.And that will cause it to start to intensify.

#11 Postby **Lowpressure** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 8:56 am

Agree and also remember, water temps are nasty in the Gulf all the way to the northern coast. Light shear to boot. Interesting though that models did not do very well with the EPAC upper level influence.

Thunder44 · #12 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 8:57 am

Brent wrote:Die TD 4.

You may get your wish, looks like it's getting really close to making landfall in Mexico.

#13 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 8:59 am

Lowpressure wrote:Agree and also remember, water temps are nasty in the Gulf all the way to the northern coast. Light shear to boot. Interesting though that models did not do very well with the EPAC upper level influence.

Agreed about the models not despicting this scenario that has delayed the formation of TS Cindy but eventually it will occur.

Website · #14 Postby **Brent** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 9:04 am

Thunder44 wrote:
Brent wrote:Die TD 4.

You may get your wish, looks like it's getting really close to making landfall in Mexico.

WOW... most of it is onshore already.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EPAC/IR4/20.jpg

#15 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 9:22 am

What does the SW shear look like right now? Has it lessened any?

#16 Postby **dhweather** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:14 am

This is the exact reason I've felt this system would NOT go
to Mexico/South Texas. The SW flow is too much, particularly for a weak
system.

EPAC Depression may haved caused disruption to TD#3

EPAC Depression may haved caused disruption to TD#3

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