11am TD 3-30 mph winds, 1010 mb

[Brent]

Tropical Depression Three Forecast/Advisory Number 4

Statement as of 15:00Z on July 04, 2005

interests in the Yucatan Peninsula and the southern and western Gulf
of Mexico should closely monitor the progress of this system.

Tropical depression center located near 20.7n 89.2w at 04/1500z
position accurate within 75 nm

present movement toward the northwest or 315 degrees at 10 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 1010 mb
Max sustained winds 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 20.7n 89.2w at 04/1500z
at 04/1200z center was located near 20.3n 88.9w

forecast valid 05/0000z 21.9n 90.2w
Max wind 30 kt...gusts 40 kt.

Forecast valid 05/1200z 23.6n 91.6w
Max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.
34 kt... 65ne 65se 25sw 65nw.

Forecast valid 06/0000z 25.7n 93.0w
Max wind 50 kt...gusts 60 kt.
50 kt... 20ne 20se 15sw 20nw.
34 kt... 65ne 65se 25sw 65nw.

Forecast valid 06/1200z 27.5n 93.5w
Max wind 55 kt...gusts 65 kt.
50 kt... 25ne 25se 25sw 25nw.
34 kt... 75ne 75se 40sw 75nw.

Forecast valid 07/1200z 30.5n 93.5w...inland
Max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.
34 kt... 75ne 75se 40sw 75nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 08/1200z 32.0n 92.0w...inland
Max wind 30 kt...gusts 40 kt.

Outlook valid 09/1200z 33.0n 89.0w...inland...dissipating
Max wind 20 kt...gusts 25 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 20.7n 89.2w

next advisory at 04/2100z

forecaster Pasch

[Brent]

Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 4

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on July 04, 2005

The depression has become quite disorganized over the Yucatan
Peninsula. Surface observations are ambiguous about the location
of a center...and sounding data from Merida suggest that the system
is tilted with the mid-level center located northeast of the
poorly-defined low-level center. My advisory position and motion
are heavily weighted by continuity...and there is large uncertainty
in these values. It is possible that a new center will reform near
the north coast of the peninsula. An Air Force hurricane hunter
plane is scheduled to investigate the system when it moves off the
Yucatan Peninsula later today.
Initial intensity is reduced to 25 kt. Global models continue to
insist that no significant development of this system will occur
over the next few day. However...if the cyclone survives and moves
into the Gulf...the upper-level winds do not appear to be hostile
for strengthening. The official intensity forecast is similar to
that from the previous advisory...and is a blend of the GFDL and
SHIPS guidance.
The track forecast reasoning is about the same as in the previous
package. The tropical cyclone is forecast to move around the
western periphery of a mid-level anticyclone near Florida.
Although the steering regime does not look too
complicated...dynamical track guidance is quite divergent...ranging
from tracks toward northeast Mexico to the north-central Gulf
Coast. The official forecast is a compromise of these various
solutions and is similar to the previous advisory track.

Forecaster Pasch

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 04/1500z 20.7n 89.2w 25 kt
12hr VT 05/0000z 21.9n 90.2w 30 kt
24hr VT 05/1200z 23.6n 91.6w 40 kt
36hr VT 06/0000z 25.7n 93.0w 50 kt
48hr VT 06/1200z 27.5n 93.5w 55 kt
72hr VT 07/1200z 30.5n 93.5w 40 kt...inland
96hr VT 08/1200z 32.0n 92.0w 30 kt...inland
120hr VT 09/1200z 33.0n 89.0w 20 kt...dissipating

[cycloneye]

Not a whole shift eastward just a tad.

[Anonymous]

It's relocating north IMO. I am surprised. I think it is relocated, strengthening, and moving into the Gulf. They think it is still west, weakening, and over the Yucatan.

[Brent]

Tropical Depression Three Advisory Number 4

Statement as of 10:00 am CDT on July 04, 2005

...Depression has become poorly organized over the Yucatan
Peninsula...

interests in the Yucatan Peninsula and the southern and western Gulf
of Mexico should closely monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 10 am CDT...1500z...the poorly-defined center of Tropical
Depression Three was located near latitude 20.7 north... longitude
89.2 west or about 55 miles... 85 km... southeast of Progreso
Mexico.

The depression is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph
...19 km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue today and
tonight. On this track the center will be moving into the southern
Gulf of Mexico later today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph... 45 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24
hours...and the depression could become a tropical storm on
Tuesday.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb...29.83 inches.

Additional rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches are possible over
the central and northern Yucatan Peninsula and extreme western
Cuba...with isolated maximum storm total amounts of 10 inches
possible.

Repeating the 10 am CDT position...20.7 N... 89.2 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 30 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1010 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
4 PM CDT.

Forecaster Pasch

[Ivanhater]

i dont get it, seems like the center is relocating and getting better organized from the latest visible...probably get a better picture from the recon as they might fix a new center..which will change intensity and landfall IMO

[Derek Ortt]

visible is not showing a closed circulation, just a weak trough axis

[Air Force Met]

It's relocating north IMO. I am surprised. I think it is relocated, strengthening, and moving into the Gulf. They think it is still west, weakening, and over the Yucatan.

Yeah...this is a "we dunno where it is" advisory...so we keep continuity. WE have to remember...the advisories are written usually before 9AM CDT...because that is when the metcon to the nws stations are and they already have a placement and forecast by then...and they don't change it unless it is really important and something drastic has happened. This is a TD...so when they made the advisory package up...they did not have the same vis loops we do now showing the circulation.

It is VERY obvious...however...that they center is not where they say it is...unless low level flow now moves directly into tropical cyclones

[lilbump3000]

More than likely we are going to see a relocated center because you can barely pick out a current center.

[wx247]

i dont get it, seems like the center is relocating and getting better organized from the latest visible...probably get a better picture from the recon as they might fix a new center..which will change intensity and landfall IMO

I don't think it has changed that much. The advisory and discussion seem pretty straightforward to me. We will know a lot more when recon goes in later today. You are correct about that.

[feederband]

I don't think this track will verify...

[Brent]

When will recon be out to sort out this mess???

[wx247]

Later today... probably once they believe that the center is no longer over land.

[lilbump3000]

When will recon be out to sort out this mess???

They will most likely fly out the same time they always do around 12p central.

[Ivanhater]

that would explain a lot airforcemet..thanks

[skysummit]

I don't think this track will verify...

Niether do eye. Look at WV loop. I don't think there's anyway this will toward Texas, nor the TX/LA line. I'm thinking more SE La., or MS according to WV.

[Air Force Met]

visible is not showing a closed circulation, just a weak trough axis

I agree that vis images don't show a LLC...because we can't see under the convection where I think the LLC is...but it is certainly not a weak trof axis. There are low leve cu clouds at 21.7/89.7 moving due south towards the northern coast. If this was a weak trof axis...they would not be moving due south...but more tothe SW.

[jax]

I don't think this track will verify...

Niether do eye. Look at WV loop. I don't think there's anyway this will toward Texas, nor the TX/LA line. I'm thinking more SE La., or MS according to WV.

I think you're right on...

that would put it right in JB's hot spot he mentioned a few weeks ago...
He's been all over this one... We'll know a lot more this afternoon...

[Javlin]

I have to agree AFMet and Floyd this thing is relocating as we speak and the tracks are going to shift way right.Your pts. earlier Met sound good at least close.This is what I was bring up yeaterday about if the LLC weakened enough over land could the MLC take over.Now I do not know if the old MLC from yesterday still exist or not maybe someone could clarify that for me.

[Derek Ortt]

I''m seeing the northerly winds, but not really any southerlies. Have about a 135 deg wind shift