CMC, GFS Models Very Interesting...

[TampaFl]

I know this is so far out, and this will change with time, but it is interesting. Thoughts and comments welcomed.

Robert

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/cmc/2005070400/slp8.png

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2005070400&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[weatherwindow]

just a note....the 7/4 00z gfdl, altho focused on td #3, picks up on 97l and depicts a closed low in the fla straits on fri.....(attempted to post link was unsuccessful)...psu.met.edu/tropical/tcgengifs. seems as tho the models are reasonably strong on this feature

[Weatherboy1]

I love these three-day weekends ... I get to get caught up on all that "tropics tracking" I can't always do on a normal weekend (somebody's gotta mow the yard, go to the beach, help clean the house, etc., etc.! ) Looks like TD3 getting a lot more convection with it today ... and that wave east of the Windward Islands is looking mighty impressive. I did check out the various models this morning -- Canadian, as you mention, has a fairly vigorous tropical system crossing over Cuba and raking up the W coast of FL. GFS takes a somewhat weaker system and plows it into SE FL. Nogaps doesn't seem to do much in the way of development; rather, it progresses a weak wave into the NW Caribbean, S Gulf. ECMWF (one of the more reliable models) also has a relatively weak low track into or just south of Cuba and then into the E Gulf (seems to show it strengthening there but that's 168 hours out). The one thing I wish I still had was the SFWMD link that allows you to graphically chart all the tropical model outputs. Seem to have lost that along the way.

We'll see what happens!

[Weatherboy1]

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HERE LIES THE FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY.
MOST NUMERICAL MODELS LIKE THE ROBUST TROPICAL WAVE JUST EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES. CONDITIONS SEEM TO BE FAVORABLE WITH GOOD
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND 80+ SST. ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE DIFFER ON THE POSITION
AND STRENGTH OF THE SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE...ALL
INCLUDING GFS...NAM...NOGAPS...UKMET...ECMWF AND THE CANADIAN
GEM...DEVELOP A DEEPER LOW. WHILE GFS...NAM AND THE CANADIAN TAKE
THE LOW ALONG A NORTHERN ROUTE THROUGH SOME OF THE GREATER
ANTILLES TO VERY CLOSE TO THE FLORIDA KEYS (IF NOT OVER THE KEYS)
BY SAT EVENING WITH GFS BRINGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 34 KTS OVER
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE OTHER GUIDANCE
MENTIONED ABOVE KEEP THE CENTER FURTHER SOUTH WITH NO MUCH IMPACT
OVER THE LOCAL AREA. GIVEN THE FACT THAT THIS IS IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST AND THAT WE STILL HAVE TIME TO STUDY THE SITUATION (AFTER
COORDINATION WITH MLB...EYW AND TAFB)...AND AFTER CHECKING THE
RECORD AND CONCLUDING THAT CLIMATOLOGY DO NOT FAVOR A TRACK TOWARD
SOUTH FLORIDA THIS TIME OF THE YEAR (ALTHOUGH THERE IS ALWAYS A
FIRST TIME) DECIDED TO GO WITH A TRACK IN BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE AND
KEEP THE CENTER WELL TO OUR SOUTH. SO WILL INCREASE THE SFC WINDS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD BUT WILL CAP THEM AT 25 KTS (WITH HIGHER
GUSTS). WILL ALSO INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AS
TO WHEN (IF AT ALL) THIS SYSTEM WILL BE IN OUR VICINITY.

Looks like the NWS folks in FL favor the southerly route for this wave in the Windwards. Also, looking at the latest NHC tropical map, they have the low associated with this wave on the western edge of the convection (not back with that ominous blob EAST of the windwards). Could be similar to a lot of these low latitude waves that go screaming by at 20 mph this time of year ... the low tends to outrun most of the convection. Some of these systems have just died due to interaction with South America. Others have tended to fly W or WNW well into the W Caribbean, then either plowed into Central America or slowed and turned NW. Long story short, it may very well NOT be a South FL threat. As always, we'll see ...

-Mike

[Canelaw99]

Some of these systems have just died due to interaction with South America. Others have tended to fly W or WNW well into the W Caribbean, then either plowed into Central America or slowed and turned NW. Long story short, it may very well NOT be a South FL threat. As always, we'll see ...

-Mike

I sure hope it doesn't become a FL threat. The shuttle is scheduled to go up on the 13th, and we have tickets to go see it. But, as you said we'll see....