11am TD 3-30 mph winds, 1010 mb

#21 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:10 am

casper wrote:I have to agree AFMet and Floyd this thing is relocating as we speak and the tracks are going to shift way right.Your pts. earlier Met sound good at least close.This is what I was bring up yeaterday about if the LLC weakened enough over land could the MLC take over.Now I do not know if the old MLC from yesterday still exist or not maybe someone could clarify that for me.

I think there were 2 vort centers yesterday...and the one further north broke off over night is is moving north now...it will die out. The GFS was hinting at this yesterday with the vort max located over western Cuba and located near 25/88 moving north by noon today...and the other piece still located over the southern GOM near the yuk. This is almost exactly what is happening.

And at the time...we thought the GFS was on crack.

#22 Postby **loon** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:12 am

jax wrote:
skysummit wrote:
feederband wrote:I don't think this track will verify...

Niether do eye. Look at WV loop. I don't think there's anyway this will toward Texas, nor the TX/LA line. I'm thinking more SE La., or MS according to WV.

I think you're right on...

that would put it right in JB's hot spot he mentioned a few weeks ago...
He's been all over this one... We'll know a lot more this afternoon...

Yes, its going to florida, you floridians happy? You get another year of back to back to back to back to back to back to back to back action. Through the mystery of some psuedo science it shall plow through the ridge and hit <insert your hometown here>.....

atleast when I say its coming for me, I admit its -removed-...*sigh*

#23 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:13 am

loon wrote:
jax wrote:
skysummit wrote:
feederband wrote:I don't think this track will verify...

Niether do eye. Look at WV loop. I don't think there's anyway this will toward Texas, nor the TX/LA line. I'm thinking more SE La., or MS according to WV.

I think you're right on...

that would put it right in JB's hot spot he mentioned a few weeks ago...
He's been all over this one... We'll know a lot more this afternoon...

Yes, its going to florida, you floridians happy? You get another year of back to back to back to back to back to back to back to back action. Through the mystery of some psuedo science it shall plow through the ridge and hit <insert your hometown here>.....

atleast when I say its coming for me, I admit its -removed-...*sigh*

What the heck is that all about? No where in this post says it's going to Florida.

#24 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:14 am

Derek Ortt wrote:I''m seeing the northerly winds, but not really any southerlies. Have about a 135 deg wind shift

I don't think we can see the southerlies...the best shots of the eastern low cloud field is 150+ from the LLC.

Give it about 3 more hours...and by that time I think it will be fairly clear what is happening. WE should know by then...maybe even before recon gets out there.

#25 Postby **loon** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:15 am

skysummit wrote:
loon wrote:
jax wrote:
skysummit wrote:
feederband wrote:I don't think this track will verify...

Niether do eye. Look at WV loop. I don't think there's anyway this will toward Texas, nor the TX/LA line. I'm thinking more SE La., or MS according to WV.

I think you're right on...

that would put it right in JB's hot spot he mentioned a few weeks ago...
He's been all over this one... We'll know a lot more this afternoon...

Yes, its going to florida, you floridians happy? You get another year of back to back to back to back to back to back to back to back action. Through the mystery of some psuedo science it shall plow through the ridge and hit <insert your hometown here>.....

atleast when I say its coming for me, I admit its -removed-...*sigh*

What the heck is that all about? No where in this post says it's going to Florida.

Sorry, long night, just reading between the lines...I'll go to sleep now

good luck with your storm...

Derek Ortt · #26 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:17 am

Just checked an IR loop and could see some southerlies there, with any circulation likely being near 21.2N and 88.2W, near the northern Yucatan

#27 Postby **feederband** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:18 am

Florida is a hurricane rod... :roll:

#28 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:19 am

Derek Ortt wrote:Just checked an IR loop and could see some southerlies there, with any circulation likely being near 21.2N and 88.2W, near the northern Yucatan

Ok, I can agree with that.

#29 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:21 am

From another thread where I posted as well:

Here's a new GARP image with sfc obs. Note the NHC position is in between two stations reporting southerly winds. Obviously, there's no LLC there. They've lost it, too.

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/cindy4.gif">

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/cindy5.gif">

Derek Ortt · #30 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:22 am

yeah, NHC is too far west for sure

now it could be NE of the SSW wind ob (which does lend some credence that there is a closed surface circulation, though ill-defined), which is the only place I see turning on IR

#31 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:22 am

Derek Ortt wrote:Just checked an IR loop and could see some southerlies there, with any circulation likely being near 21.2N and 88.2W, near the northern Yucatan

I have it a little north of there...but in that same area.

What I find interesting...if you go back to the 18Z run from yesterday of the GFS...you can follow that piece of energy that broke off last night...and if it's right...this thing should move more wnw-nw once it gets together.

Turns out the GFS had a handle on the energy splitting.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_024m.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_042m.gif

#32 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:27 am

Chris...you thinking a little more WNW on the movement now the system has spit out the other vort center is is on it's on in the flow?

#33 Postby **loon** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:30 am

the peice just to the north of the Yuc appears to be moving back NW or even WNW now that it cleared the Yuc.....maybe back on track after the split? Gonna be interesting here in a few hours...

cheers,
loon

#34 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:31 am

loon wrote:the peice just to the north of the Yuc appears to be moving back NW or even WNW now that it cleared the Yuc.....maybe back on track after the split? Gonna be interesting here in a few hours...

cheers,
loon

Looking back at the GFS runs from yesterday...that is exactly what it said it would do.

#35 Postby **loon** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:32 am

I know I've been crass in this thread..but AFM, the ridge is still pretty strong and very much existant over florida? am I wrong? And now we are seeing the low take that route around it?

cheers,
loon

#36 Postby **dhweather** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:33 am

Air Force Met wrote:
casper wrote:I have to agree AFMet and Floyd this thing is relocating as we speak and the tracks are going to shift way right.Your pts. earlier Met sound good at least close.This is what I was bring up yeaterday about if the LLC weakened enough over land could the MLC take over.Now I do not know if the old MLC from yesterday still exist or not maybe someone could clarify that for me.

I think there were 2 vort centers yesterday...and the one further north broke off over night is is moving north now...it will die out. The GFS was hinting at this yesterday with the vort max located over western Cuba and located near 25/88 moving north by noon today...and the other piece still located over the southern GOM near the yuk. This is almost exactly what is happening.

And at the time...we thought the GFS was on crack.

Hey, I said this yesterday! Where's my cookie!!!

I really did believe that as the first vort approached Belize that another
was 100-150 miles NE of that one. I felt then (as others did) that
we'd see the one to the NE take over. It appears that is going to verify.

#37 Postby **wx247** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:33 am

The GFS knew what it was talking about??? :yayaya:

What is this world coming to?

#38 Postby **dhweather** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:34 am

Derek Ortt wrote:yeah, NHC is too far west for sure

now it could be NE of the SSW wind ob (which does lend some credence that there is a closed surface circulation, though ill-defined), which is the only place I see turning on IR

When is your next advisory Derek?

#39 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:40 am

dhweather wrote:
Hey, I said this yesterday! Where's my cookie!!!

I really did believe that as the first vort approached Belize that another
was 100-150 miles NE of that one. I felt then (as others did) that
we'd see the one to the NE take over. It appears that is going to verify.

Don't munch yet. The one that was northeast of the center is the piece of energy that is currently being spit out to the north and will die a rainy death over the northern GOM :-)

The vort that approached Belize is the same one...but when the other piece of energy split...it was really weakened. Now that the other one is gone...I think it becomes predominate and will actually start moving at about 300.

I have another post with the links to the GFS that show what I was talking about...including what it was forecasting for now...with the piece of energy sitting near 25N. In the 18z run yesterday...that other MLC was sitting near the western tip of cuba...with the other MLC appraoching Belize...and the LLC even further south than that.

#40 Postby **dhweather** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:41 am

OK AFM - we'll share the cookie!

11am TD 3-30 mph winds, 1010 mb

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