Center now over the GOM..

[Anonymous]

in latest visible imagery.

[BonesXL]

Thinks are starting to get interesting....

[Janice]

Here is a nice view of the system...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[tw861]

in latest visible imagery.

Ok, I'll bite....where is it ? I'm not saying there's not one, but I would like to find it. I think if there is one it's just of the northern coast between Merida and Cancun.

[Javlin]

I agree TW I think AFMet position is more realistic maybe in a few hours its over the GOM.The swirl to the N I believe is the old MLC from yesterday maybe.

[hiflyer]

http://smn.cna.gob.mx/

CUN radar has it just fine.......

[EyeOfTheStorm]

Its not in the gulf yet

[EyeOfTheStorm]

[quote="Janice"]Here is a nice view of the system...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html[/
quote]


Here is a better view
http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/s ... n&type=vis

[skysummit]

Its not in the gulf yet

If not, it's pretty darn close.

[EyeOfTheStorm]

Its not in the gulf yet

If not, it's pretty darn close.

Yes about an hour or so away

[Guest]

Here is a nice view of the system...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html[/
quote]


Here is a better view
http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/s ... n&type=vis

Great sat. u can clearly see the circulation, with good inflow and outflow reestablishing itself in all quads

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

I don't speak Spanish, but I understood enough to find the cancun radar. There doesn't seem to be another nearer to the storm, and this one seems to fizzle out halfway across the yucatan.




Unless either the storm is that weak, or the radar sux.

[Javlin]

What do you see Hiflyer?

[hiflyer]

What do you see Hiflyer?

Whelp all radars have a tendacy to make things circular...mostly referring to the outer edges of the returns. Secondly this thing is not animating right now...did last year....which does not help. Third...as someone pointed out I think it is blinded a bit by near return and not picking up far stuff on the west side. I don't think that was a center near Tizimin..think it is off the beach now on the north side of the coast.....imho. Think the Tizimin circular was just another chunk of energy moving north...been watching the water vapor loops overnight and the flow of energy north was interesting.

[Dean4Storms]

The LLC is likely to reform just north of the central north coast of the Yuc. There are no surfaces obs. on the Yuc. that define a LLC, so it is my opinion that it will reform under the MLC off the North Coast today.

[Javlin]

So you're thinking NW of Cancun then that sounds reasonable this pic someone thru out earlier I think verifies that some.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... duration=6

[hiflyer]

[dhweather]

Here is a nice view of the system...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html[/
quote]


Here is a better view
http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/s ... n&type=vis

Hey, thanks for that link - that's a good focus for the GOM !

And you can see the trough digging east across Oklahoma in the frames,
which will also contribute to an eastward shift in later guidance.

THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST IN ANY WAY !!!!!

I suspect that Texas' odds of seeing a landfall of any type (TD/TS/H)
from this are getting much closer to zero.