OK where is TD 3's center?

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Derek Ortt

#41 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Jul 04, 2005 9:27 am

maybe not (you're probably using public intenet loops, while I'm using a private met program).

I am using GARP, so I get images every half hour and can zoom right in on top of these features. I see only easterly winds for TD 3 and the beginnings of a closed surface circulation for the atlantic system
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#42 Postby Air Force Met » Mon Jul 04, 2005 9:29 am

Derek Ortt wrote:now that we have several visible shots, its clear that there ar eno idnciations of a circulation, or even a significant wind shift

the Islands wave has more of a circulation than 3 does


I dunno Derek...there's some pretty good turning going on north of the yuk. It's not clear if its closed...but that's because the southern end is buried in the convection. At least the GHCC is updating every 7-10 minutes now instead of 15...this will help.
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#43 Postby Air Force Met » Mon Jul 04, 2005 9:30 am

Derek Ortt wrote:maybe not (you're probably using public intenet loops, while I'm using a private met program).

I am using GARP, so I get images every half hour and can zoom right in on top of these features. I see only easterly winds for TD 3 and the beginnings of a closed surface circulation for the atlantic system
.

Using the GHCC...i'm getting them 5-10 minutes. 2nd to last image...1410. Last image...1415.
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#44 Postby wxman57 » Mon Jul 04, 2005 9:35 am

I'm using GARP as well, and it does look like a small swirl near 22N/89W, just west of the heavier convection. Still, it looks like an open wave at this time.
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#45 Postby Air Force Met » Mon Jul 04, 2005 9:37 am

1425Z now up...

I dunno...if I was getting images every 30 minutes...I'd switch. That's why I always use the GHCC for the vis shots...because at a minumum they are updated every 30 minutes. Then they go into a kinda rapid scan when there is a system close. 5-10 minutes.

I use the SSD page for my IR2 images...and plus it auto updates...but I always use GHCC for vis. I also use RAMSDIS.
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#46 Postby tw861 » Mon Jul 04, 2005 9:39 am

wxman57 wrote:I'm using GARP as well, and it does look like a small swirl near 22N/89W, just west of the heavier convection. Still, it looks like an open wave at this time.


Yea, If I had to pick one that's where I would probably put it. The motions of the lower clouds that you can see seem to indicate that one might be there or trying to close off there.

Do you think this is a completely new center trying to close off or is this the origonal one ?

I'm using the GHCC site also.
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#47 Postby rockyman » Mon Jul 04, 2005 9:43 am

Is that the center emerging on the northern coast just NE of Tizimin? Here's the Cancun radar image:

Image
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#48 Postby tw861 » Mon Jul 04, 2005 9:59 am

wxman57 wrote:I'm using GARP as well, and it does look like a small swirl near 22N/89W, just west of the heavier convection. Still, it looks like an open wave at this time.


Funny and I'm not being critical, but there was no mention at all in the 11am disc, about the possiblity of this being an open wave. I really expected that from them.

I do think their position is wrong though. I think it's about 60 miles northeast on the coast.
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#49 Postby wxman57 » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:18 am

Here's a new GARP image with sfc obs. Note the NHC position is in between two stations reporting southerly winds. Obviously, there's no LLC there. They've lost it, too.

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/cindy4.gif">

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/cindy5.gif">
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#50 Postby skysummit » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:20 am

Hey....that's close to where I put my "L"! :D
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#51 Postby HouTXmetro » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:27 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

It looks that both alleged centers are trying to consolidate. Does anyone else see them getting closer?
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#52 Postby dhweather » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:28 am

WXMAN THAK YOU FOR THE GARP SCREEN SHOTS !!!!!


Now please keep them coming!!!! :)


David
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#53 Postby HouTXmetro » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:29 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Looks like the EPAC shear is relaxing also.
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#54 Postby skysummit » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:31 am

HouTXmetro wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-vis-loop.html

Looks like the EPAC shear is relaxing also.


Yea, this may finally allow the western side to build back up.
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#55 Postby dixiebreeze » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:39 am

Air Force Met wrote:I think the center is now in the gulf...sitting north of the yucatan...at about 21.3N / 88.4W. We'll have to see once we get some vis shots...but that is my hunch right now.

edited for my bad spelling...


Regardless of where it is exactly, Florida is definitely a potential target now. :eek:
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#56 Postby Rainband » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:42 am

dixiebreeze wrote:
Air Force Met wrote:I think the center is now in the gulf...sitting north of the yucatan...at about 21.3N / 88.4W. We'll have to see once we get some vis shots...but that is my hunch right now.

edited for my bad spelling...


Regardless of where it is exactly, Florida is definitely a potential target now. :eek:
High Pressure ...dixie. The state is safe :wink:
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#57 Postby Brent » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:45 am

dixiebreeze wrote:
Air Force Met wrote:I think the center is now in the gulf...sitting north of the yucatan...at about 21.3N / 88.4W. We'll have to see once we get some vis shots...but that is my hunch right now.

edited for my bad spelling...


Regardless of where it is exactly, Florida is definitely a potential target now. :eek:


Not really. There's a ridge.
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#58 Postby skysummit » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:47 am

dixiebreeze wrote:
Air Force Met wrote:I think the center is now in the gulf...sitting north of the yucatan...at about 21.3N / 88.4W. We'll have to see once we get some vis shots...but that is my hunch right now.

edited for my bad spelling...


Regardless of where it is exactly, Florida is definitely a potential target now. :eek:


Maybe the far western edge of the panhandle, but I think the penninsula is ok.
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#59 Postby feederband » Mon Jul 04, 2005 2:45 pm

dixiebreeze wrote:
Air Force Met wrote:I think the center is now in the gulf...sitting north of the yucatan...at about 21.3N / 88.4W. We'll have to see once we get some vis shots...but that is my hunch right now.

edited for my bad spelling...


Regardless of where it is exactly, Florida is definitely a potential target now. :eek:



Bite your tung dixie... :D
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#60 Postby tw861 » Mon Jul 04, 2005 2:49 pm

My guess on the center is 22.8/88.2 Recon should fix one shortly so we will soon know.
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