Where I think the new center is.

Anonymous · #1 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:27 am

I think recon will find a new center in the area circled. The X marks the old center. I am kind of surprised the NHC still tracked the old center, given the organization of the new one.

Here is where I think it it:

This radar image makes me even in the thinking:

#2 Postby **Stormcenter** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:28 am

~Floydbuster wrote:I think recon will find a new center in the area circled. The X marks the old center. I am kind of surprised the NHC still tracked the old center, given the organization of the new one.

Here is where I think it it:

This radar image makes me even in the thinking:

I think you are correct.

#3 Postby **wx247** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:30 am

I don't know how you can tell anything from that still radar image.

#4 Postby **Ivanhater** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:31 am

great observation floydbuster ive been thinking the exact same thing.. guess we will find out when recon goes in

rockyman · #5 Postby **rockyman** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:32 am

I agree 100%...well 99%

and since we have a couple of hours of visibles now, I more convinced that the center is well NE of where NHC is showing...

Mike...to me it looks like this IS the old center...I've watched IR overnight and it looks like the center just MOVED NNW instead of being "relocated"...I notice a "hook" in the IR clouds starting hours ago...the reason I bring this up...if it's MOVEMENT vs. RELOCATION...the track of the storm could be much further east than currently forecast...what do you think? By the way...THANK YOU SO MUCH for your video forecasts...I'm very impressed!

Sean in New Orleans · #6 Postby **Sean in New Orleans** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:33 am

corpusbreeze · #7 Postby **corpusbreeze** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:34 am

I would agree.

#8 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:34 am

The more and more I look at visible, the more I think it's undergoing a strengthening phase right now. What time does recon get out there? If it's later this evening, I think they may find a Tropical Storm.

I say this because look on visible at that northern most area of energy that blew off over night. Those storms were getting sheared from the southwest. Now those storms are actually beginning to form from the northeast to the southwest. If that starts happening closer to the center on the northwestern side, well.....

#9 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:35 am

wx247 wrote:I don't know how you can tell anything from that still radar image.

You can match up the curved banding on radar with what you see in the vis. If you do a high res vis loop from GHCC...it is even clearer.

But it also helps to have some imagination. :-)

But I agree with that placement...see my post at 8:26 this morning. ;-)

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 25&start=0

#10 Postby **dhweather** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:36 am

~Floydbuster wrote:I think recon will find a new center in the area circled. The X marks the old center. I am kind of surprised the NHC still tracked the old center, given the organization of the new one.

Here is where I think it it:

OK, you and Mike Watkins are definately Pat Sumrall and John Madden
with these diagrams! :lol:

#11 Postby **LSU2001** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:38 am

Mike, If you are right and I think you are, It looks like convection is starting to refire right over the "new center". GHCC 1km vis loop

#12 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:39 am

I think she's determined to make fools out of forecasters.

Sean in New Orleans · #13 Postby **Sean in New Orleans** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:39 am

Sorry about my crude drawings and handwriting....this portrays more where I think the center is emerging...

#14 Postby **dhweather** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:40 am

skysummit wrote:I think she's determined to make fools out of forecasters.

They do that all the time. That is part of the fun!

x-y-no · #15 Postby **x-y-no** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:41 am

I think Floydbuster is pretty close with this position. One can see a slight westerly component to the low-level clouds moving ashore onto the NW Yucatan now, which indicates the center is WNW of there, and probably offshore already under that burst of convection.

Sean in New Orleans · #16 Postby **Sean in New Orleans** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:42 am

Convection is just to the East of the Center, IMO...

#17 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:43 am

x-y-no wrote:I think Floydbuster is pretty close with this position. One can see a slight westerly component to the low-level clouds moving ashore onto the NW Yucatan now, which indicates the center is WNW of there, and probably offshore already under that burst of convection.

I second this, and I also think in the next few frames we'll see more of a NW direction instead of NNW or N direction.

Sean in New Orleans · #18 Postby **Sean in New Orleans** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:44 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Jacob · #19 Postby **Jacob** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:45 am

Not trying to take this off-topic, but I noticed something when I looped the visible. Is that a gravity wave in Texas? Sure looks like one on visible sat.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

As for where the center is, I think it's relocated a few miles NE, but not too far from where the NHC has it.

Edit: Nevermind, just a gust-front from old thunderstorms.

HouTXmetro · #20 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:48 am

Sean in New Orleans wrote:Sorry about my crude drawings and handwriting....this portrays more where I think the center is emerging...

I'm with you Sean

Where I think the new center is.

Where I think the new center is.

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Re: Where I think the new center is.

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