Is This July ????

#1 Postby **TampaFl** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:42 am

This sure does not look like a July 4th map of the tropics - more like August or September :eek:

. The MM5 model/not sure how reliable it is.Thoughts and comments welcomed.

Robert 8-)

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc2.cgi?time=2005070400&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

#2 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:43 am

Convective Feedback?!?!

#3 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:44 am

That one near TX/LA...is that supposed to be TD3? If so, she goes through rapid intensification just prior to landfall!

Derek Ortt · #4 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:45 am

I'm running the MM5 on TD 3 and what should soon be TD 4 right now. Should have the runs sent within the hour

I laugh at the FSU run. The MM5 should not be used at that poor of a resolution

#5 Postby **loon** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:45 am

notice the stall at the end...whats that all about?

#6 Postby **Ivanhater** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:46 am

wow! 4 tropical systems at 1 time in july! wouldnt that be something i know that model isnt that accurate but still forecasting 4 at the start of july! i also noticed TD 3 stalling out before landfall! not good

Derek Ortt · #7 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:46 am

wow,

the FSU MM5 has 3 hurricanes hitting the USA at the same time, EVEN THOUGH IT INTENSIFIES ONE OVER THE MOUNTAINS! Have they ever heard of a topography field in their terrain file?

rsdoug1981 · #8 Postby **rsdoug1981** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:47 am

The MM5 is interesting in that it shows a path for the E. Carib wave that is similar to other models (maybe not intensity-wise), but it just gets ridiculous with td03.

x-y-no · #9 Postby **x-y-no** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:48 am

The FSU experimental version of the MM5 is pretty wacked-out. At a couple of points, it was spinning Arlene up to a Cat-3 also, so I'm not going to panic over what it's putting off the SE Florida coast. :-)

Also, I find the idea of the Gulf system stalling right off the coast entirely incredible.

Jan

Derek Ortt · #10 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:51 am

if my run of the MM5 shows that, then I will be concerned (we have the proper topography of hispaniola, plus, I only run it with 12 hourly boundary conditions, not 6 which I believe FSU does)

#11 Postby **dhweather** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:53 am

Didn't Dr. Gray state "We are entering a new period ......"

We may be living what will be written in meteorlogical history books
as "Hurricane Attacks"

Website · #12 Postby **Brent** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:54 am

Derek Ortt wrote:wow,

the FSU MM5 has 3 hurricanes hitting the USA at the same time, EVEN THOUGH IT INTENSIFIES ONE OVER THE MOUNTAINS! Have they ever heard of a topography field in their terrain file?

x-y-no · #13 Postby **x-y-no** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:54 am

Derek Ortt wrote:if my run of the MM5 shows that, then I will be concerned (we have the proper topography of hispaniola, plus, I only run it with 12 hourly boundary conditions, not 6 which I believe FSU does)

Looking forward to your results, Derek.

Is This July ????

Is This July ????

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