11:30 TWO=Wave continues to show signs of organization

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cycloneye
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11:30 TWO=Wave continues to show signs of organization

#1 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:09 am

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT MON JUL 4 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION THREE...LOCATED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO
ABOUT 55 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PROGRESO.

A LARGE AND WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...AND CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW
DEVELOPMENT AS THE IT MOVES WESTWARD THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SQUALLY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LESSER ANTILLES...NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA...AND
THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TODAY...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT33 AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON THE DEPRESSION ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER
WTNT23 AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3.

FORECASTER PASCH

No mention of recon going down there yet.
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#2 Postby skysummit » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:11 am

I think this system is a go!
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#3 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:16 am

The only problem that I see is that's moving at about 25 mph, that's not very conducive to maintain a low-level circulation in case one develops.
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#4 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:17 am

HURAKAN wrote:The only problem that I see is that's moving at about 25 mph, that's not very conducive to maintain a low-level circulation in case one develops.


Agreed it has to slow down a little to not outrace the convection.
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#5 Postby Brent » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:18 am

:eek: :eek: :eek:
Last edited by Brent on Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:20 am, edited 2 times in total.
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#6 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:19 am

The E Caribbean is either very unfavorable or very favorable. There is hardly ever any inbetween. Last year with Charley and Ivan, we all saw just how favorable that region can be.

It looks to be quite favorable
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#7 Postby wx247 » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:27 am

Why is everyone referring to 97L while there is nothing on NRL?
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#8 Postby dhweather » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:27 am

I'm still playing catch-up on threads, I think it was ECMWF had this
going into the GOM and slapping Florida's West Coast/Panhandle in
144 hours?


I agree Derek, it's never in between, it's always favorable or not!
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#9 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:30 am

Agreed Derek.Interesting that the eastern caribbean has been favorable lately.This area is known as the graveyard for tropical systems.
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#10 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:33 am

that graveyard is not very accurate at all.

it either kills them, or blows them up into cat 4's or 5's. We either have that big trough, SAL, and HUGE upper ridge
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Rainband

#11 Postby Rainband » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:51 am

dhweather wrote:I'm still playing catch-up on threads, I think it was ECMWF had this
going into the GOM and slapping Florida's West Coast/Panhandle in
144 hours?


I agree Derek, it's never in between, it's always favorable or not!
we know that will never happen. I cant tell you have many early models have had a florida west coast tracker :lol: :lol: I feel better now :wink:
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#12 Postby Hyperstorm » Mon Jul 04, 2005 11:00 am

After being in a status quo very early this morning, the system appears to be consolidating a little more steadily now and latest visible images reveal a pronounced turning beginning to happen. This is a VERY strong tropical wave which ONLY needs a closed LLC to be classified a tropical depression.

Watch for the island surface observations...If ANY of the southernmost islands reports a westerly wind as the wave passes through....BEHOLD...a tropical depression is imminent along with a special tropical disturbance statement.

I'll be looking out for that...
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