11am TD 3-30 mph winds, 1010 mb

[loon]

I think AFM is saying, the one you thought would take over, is going to die..and the other will be come the storm...hence..no cookie =]

[rsdoug1981]

It looks like the latest GFS is finally showing some type of low in the Gulf. It shows a very weak low, but it's more significant than the open wave that it has been showing.

[dhweather]

Aw Loon, there was another vort, I should at least get half a cookie!!

[CFL]

Even if the center is reforming futher to the north, wouldn't the track remain basically the same due to the ridge?

[loon]

Aw Loon, there was another vort, I should at least get half a cookie!!

I agree, half a cookie it is...

[loon]

Even if the center is reforming futher to the north, wouldn't the track remain basically the same due to the ridge?

I think so CFL

[dhweather]

Even if the center is reforming futher to the north, wouldn't the track remain basically the same due to the ridge?

In a very broad, general sense. Tracks have to be adjusted north and east.

[Derek Ortt]

dh

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl032005.html

see the bottom

[loon]

Even if the center is reforming futher to the north, wouldn't the track remain basically the same due to the ridge?

In a very broad, general sense. Tracks have to be adjusted north and east.

how so?, just because the LLC start off north, doesn't mean the ridge changed, and looking at the cone, they just went right around the ridge. I'm failing to see why everyone is saying that it needs to be adjusted east?

cheers
loon

(not a slam dhw...just asking)

[dhweather]

dh

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl032005.html

see the bottom

Gracias Derek!

[HouTXmetro]

Even if the center is reforming futher to the north, wouldn't the track remain basically the same due to the ridge?

In a very broad, general sense. Tracks have to be adjusted north and east.

how so?, just because the LLC start off north, doesn't mean the ridge changed, and looking at the cone, they just went right around the ridge. I'm failing to see why everyone is saying that it needs to be adjusted east?

cheers
loon

(not a slam dhw...just asking)

Co-signing, but maybe I'm just -removed-. My thoughts are that even if the center is relocating north, the movement of the storm as steered by the High is very much so wnw-nw.

[Air Force Met]

OK AFM - we'll share the cookie!

brrrrp

[artist]

is this what the nhc is seeing?

<img src="http://216.77.188.54/coDataImages/p/Groups/242/242637/folders/206864/1597304center.jpg" width="470" height="352">

[rsdoug1981]

The 12z UKMET really like td03. It shows pretty rapid deepening just prior to a landfall on the TX/LA line.

[wxman57]

Chris...you thinking a little more WNW on the movement now the system has spit out the other vort center is is on it's on in the flow?

I'm looking at 850mb and 700mb flow across the Gulf. Those winds are from the SE initially, then southerly along the TX/LA border. So I think the basic track curvature looks ok, just a little farther east for landfall, possibly.

[dhweather]

Even if the center is reforming futher to the north, wouldn't the track remain basically the same due to the ridge?

In a very broad, general sense. Tracks have to be adjusted north and east.

how so?, just because the LLC start off north, doesn't mean the ridge changed, and looking at the cone, they just went right around the ridge. I'm failing to see why everyone is saying that it needs to be adjusted east?

cheers
loon

(not a slam dhw...just asking)

No slam taken loon!

the biggest thing is the initial position and movement - a 10 degree
shift in direction, or 100 mile reorgiznation of the center can
have tremendous long range impacts.

Print out a tracking chart from the nhc and plot the system on the forecast
path, then adjust that same path by 10 degrees and see where it makes landfall. That should help explain it.

[artist]

please see my pic above - is this where they think the center is?

[Air Force Met]

Even if the center is reforming futher to the north, wouldn't the track remain basically the same due to the ridge?

If you think back to the 4am discussion...remember they were going with a stronger system. This is a weaker one. The 10 am is just continuity from the 4...and the location is really hosed. I think the low level flow will take this more WNW-NW (~300) for a while...like the GFS was saying. So...I don't think the tracks will be moved east. You have to look at the low level stearing until it gets vertically stacked again.

[wxman57]

please see my pic above - is this where they think the center is?

No, your circle is over land, there is no circulation there. Draw it about 60 miles to the north.

[HouTXmetro]

Even if the center is reforming futher to the north, wouldn't the track remain basically the same due to the ridge?

In a very broad, general sense. Tracks have to be adjusted north and east.

how so?, just because the LLC start off north, doesn't mean the ridge changed, and looking at the cone, they just went right around the ridge. I'm failing to see why everyone is saying that it needs to be adjusted east?

cheers
loon

(not a slam dhw...just asking)

No slam taken loon!

the biggest thing is the initial position and movement - a 10 degree
shift in direction, or 100 mile reorgiznation of the center can
have tremendous long range impacts.

Print out a tracking chart from the nhc and plot the system on the forecast
path, then adjust that same path by 10 degrees and see where it makes landfall. That should help explain it.

I see what you mean. BUT with how the system is progged to curve, wouldn't a more northern relocation of the center (not the motion) mean it will get much closer to the coast before it turns. Whereas if the center was more south and direction stayed the same, the storm would have more time to curve. In relationship to this system and location you have to take into account the shape of the NW Gulf coastline and the timing of any synoptic features that may steer it.