Mia NWS

[pavelbure224]

I know this is from 8am but it seems interesting.

EXTENDED FORECAST...
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HERE LIES THE FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY.
MOST NUMERICAL MODELS LIKE THE ROBUST TROPICAL WAVE JUST EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES. CONDITIONS SEEM TO BE FAVORABLE WITH GOOD
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND 80+ SST. ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE DIFFER ON THE POSITION
AND STRENGTH OF THE SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE...ALL
INCLUDING GFS...NAM...NOGAPS...UKMET...ECMWF AND THE CANADIAN
GEM...DEVELOP A DEEPER LOW. WHILE GFS...NAM AND THE CANADIAN TAKE
THE LOW ALONG A NORTHERN ROUTE THROUGH SOME OF THE GREATER
ANTILLES TO VERY CLOSE TO THE FLORIDA KEYS (IF NOT OVER THE KEYS)
BY SAT EVENING WITH GFS BRINGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 34 KTS OVER
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE OTHER GUIDANCE
MENTIONED ABOVE KEEP THE CENTER FURTHER SOUTH WITH NO MUCH IMPACT
OVER THE LOCAL AREA. GIVEN THE FACT THAT THIS IS IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST AND THAT WE STILL HAVE TIME TO STUDY THE SITUATION (AFTER
COORDINATION WITH MLB...EYW AND TAFB)...AND AFTER CHECKING THE
RECORD AND CONCLUDING THAT CLIMATOLOGY DO NOT FAVOR A TRACK TOWARD
SOUTH FLORIDA THIS TIME OF THE YEAR (ALTHOUGH THERE IS ALWAYS A
FIRST TIME) DECIDED TO GO WITH A TRACK IN BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE AND
KEEP THE CENTER WELL TO OUR SOUTH. SO WILL INCREASE THE SFC WINDS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD BUT WILL CAP THEM AT 25 KTS (WITH HIGHER
GUSTS). WILL ALSO INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AS
TO WHEN (IF AT ALL) THIS SYSTEM WILL BE IN OUR VICINITY.