97,Update=00:00z Model plots,grafic

jdray · #41 Postby **jdray** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 8:08 am

Scorpion wrote:995 MB over N Florida? Looks like < 970 MB landfall then.

Looks like a Penisula runner.....

Nothing like a little wind/rain for the entire state.

#42 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 12:33 pm

Finnally at NRL but this is a depression already so it will be NONAME soon.

Ola · #43 Postby **Ola** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 12:36 pm

A depression Cycloneye?

#44 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 12:39 pm

Ola wrote:A depression Cycloneye?

By the look of it certainly it is a depression but still the west wind has to be found somewhere.

#45 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 12:43 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Ola wrote:A depression Cycloneye?

By the look of it certainly it is a depression but still the west wind has to be found somewhere.

Wasn't the west wind found near Trinidad as another post suggests?

Ola · #46 Postby **Ola** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 12:44 pm

There are west winds on the northeast coast of south america, but still, I dont think its a depression just yet, because of the fast speed, its taking longer to consolidate a llc. I do think this thing will really blow up overnight and we will have a depression in the morning. THats my opinnion. Because it will probablly slow down overnight once it gets to the weakness in the ridge that is steering it right now. Not a big weakness, but enough to let it gain altitude and distance itself from the south america coast heading torwards Hispaniola.

Hyperstorm · #47 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 12:46 pm

Yes, there's the westerly component of the wind already which suggests that a depression is forming, BUT the question is if it's still too broad for classification...

Ola · #48 Postby **Ola** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 12:47 pm

from the 2:05 discussion

A strong tropical wave lies across the Lesser Antilles with a
weak 1012 mb low pressure center in the southern Windward
Islands W 15-20 kt. Pressures continue to fall in the area with
sly winds noted in the windwards S of Grenada and Ely winds at
Barbados. There are banding features especially in the E
semicircle with anticyclonic flow aloft providing an environment
conducive to further development. Scattered showers and a few
tstms are S of 15n between 56w-65w with widely scattered
moderate convection from 15n-19n between 54w-60w approaching
the leeward island. Computer models suggest this wave has the
potential to eventually develop into a tropical cyclone as wind
shear is forecast to remain weak during its treks westward thru
the Caribbean. Regardless of development... heavy rain is
likely across the Lesser Antilles especially in the Windward
Islands for the next couple days with increased moisture noted S
of 15n W of 50w.

Hyperstorm · #49 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 12:54 pm

I don't know what pressure falls they are seeing, but they are not significant in any of the islands. I call significant, pressures changes in the order of 3 mb in 24 hours. The most I've seen is 1-2 mb changes in isolated places...However, the system IS organizing by the hour, so there would be no surprise in seeing significant pressure falls during the remainder of the afternoon...

Rainband · #50 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 12:54 pm

Bay news 9 just said Florida will need to monitor the potential system in the Eastern Caribbean. The high is forecast to weaken and may bring this our way. Joy :roll:

They also said if td3 stays weak it will go more west and if it strengthens more nw toward TXLA border all the way east to Mississippi.

#51 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 12:56 pm

Hyperstorm wrote:I don't know what pressure falls they are seeing, but they are not significant in any of the islands. I call significant, pressures changes in the order of 3 mb in 24 hours. The most I've seen is 1-2 mb changes in isolated places...However, the system IS organizing by the hour...

In Trinidad for example pressures of 1012-1014 mbs haved been in the data there.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TTPP.html

Hyperstorm · #52 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 12:59 pm

Those pressures are what one considers normal. What I'm looking for is significant (+3 mb) 24-hour pressure differences in the islands. What I see for Trinidad is that it is actually 1 mb higher right now than 24 hours ago.

We'll see how everything goes this afternoon...

#53 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 1:53 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL972005) ON 20050704 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050704 1800 050705 0600 050705 1800 050706 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.6N 60.0W 12.5N 63.2W 13.7N 65.8W 15.2N 67.8W
BAMM 11.6N 60.0W 12.6N 63.4W 14.0N 66.0W 15.5N 68.1W
A98E 11.6N 60.0W 12.2N 63.3W 12.7N 66.2W 13.3N 68.9W
LBAR 11.6N 60.0W 12.2N 63.2W 13.2N 66.1W 14.2N 69.0W
SHIP 25KTS 33KTS 43KTS 52KTS
DSHP 25KTS 33KTS 43KTS 52KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050706 1800 050707 1800 050708 1800 050709 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.8N 69.5W 19.8N 72.7W 22.6N 76.0W 25.4N 79.1W
BAMM 17.4N 69.9W 21.1N 73.8W 23.9N 77.9W 26.6N 80.9W
A98E 14.2N 71.0W 15.8N 73.9W 18.4N 76.0W 22.6N 77.6W
LBAR 15.3N 71.9W 17.7N 76.9W 21.3N 80.3W 25.0N 81.7W
SHIP 60KTS 69KTS 75KTS 80KTS
DSHP 60KTS 49KTS 55KTS 44KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.6N LONCUR = 60.0W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 11.3N LONM12 = 58.0W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 11.0N LONM24 = 55.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Intersting the tracks.Grafic very soon.

Website · #54 Postby **Brent** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 1:55 pm

Uh... BAM's and LBAR have it very close to South Florida and the Keys in 5 days. :eek:

#55 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 1:58 pm

It will miss most of Hispanola according to the models and that is important because it avoids the more than 10,000 feet mountains and has then the oportunity to get stronger.

stormie_skies · #56 Postby **stormie_skies** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 2:01 pm

Wow....he does look quite handsome...

What a season already! Me thinks we will all have to pitch in and buy Starbucks cards for the mods here .... they arent gonna be sleeping much . :eek:

#57 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 2:03 pm

If you live in Miami and see that green bamm model line over you you go nuts right?

But the models change with each run so dont worrie too much now.

gkrangers · #58 Postby **gkrangers** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 2:07 pm

Well...the BAMM tracks would destroy the storm over Hispaniola. But doesn't the BAMM suck this far north?

Derek Ortt · #59 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 2:08 pm

anyone who is worried if the BAMM is over them needs to have their heads examined or be institutionilized, probably the latter

That assumes a medium depth system. No need to worry then as we'd be looking at a 45KT TS at worst if the BAMM is correct.

Now, the Canadian is cause for concern

x-y-no · #60 Postby **x-y-no** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 2:08 pm

cycloneye wrote:If you live in Miami and see that green bamm model line over you you go nuts right? But the models change with each run so dont worrie too much now.

Yep. BAMM takes it right through my front yard.

We'll see.

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