'TD#3' dominant LLC emerging in Gulf

[HouTXmetro]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

It's hard to deny where the center is now. And it's heading between WNW - NW. Does anyone else see this? Implication on track?

[Guest]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

It's hard to deny where the center is now. And it's heading between WNW - NW. Does anyone else see this? Implication on track?

Please tell me you understand at what angle that sat shot is right? Lets not play with peoples minds, here is a realistic shot.

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/s ... n&type=vis

[HouTXmetro]

No I do not understand the angle it was shot at. Please educate me.

[Guest]

No I do not understand the angle it was shot at. Please educate me.

Your seeing a shot in a direction that could be anywhere from 15 to 30 degrees off from dead center of sat position over the earth. Causes a person perception to be distorted.

[Air Force Met]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

It's hard to deny where the center is now. And it's heading between WNW - NW. Does anyone else see this? Implication on track?

Please tell me you understand at what angle that sat shot is right? Lets not play with peoples minds, here is a realistic shot.

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/s ... n&type=vis

Not sure I understand either. For one thing...looking at such a zoomed out picture will tell you nothing about where the LLC is unless it has an eye. You have to track individual cu fields. All you can see with that shot is a bunch of mid level moisture moving north. There is nothing at the sfc in that batch of rain which is evident by looking at the buoy data. Looking at the GHCC...the LLC appears to be off the northern coast by 30 or so miles. Given that it is decoupled form the mid level circulation (AGAIN...ARGGGH)...the low level flow should be moving it at 290-300.

[Air Force Met]

No I do not understand the angle it was shot at. Please educate me.

Your seeing a shot in a direction that could be anywhere from 15 to 30 degrees off from dead center of sat position over the earth. Causes a person perception to be distorted.

That's called foreshortening...and given the Goes-E is at 75W...and is 22,300 miles about 75W...and given TD3 is about 900 miles west of that...well...it's only a little bit of distortion. Foreshortening is only a problem on the edges of the satellite image...here you are talking a diff of 30 miles or so (no...didn't calculate it...just a quick guess )

[Agua]

AFM,
Where do you see the center of circulation? About 23N / 89.3 or so?

Just want to see if I'm looking at the right thing.

[HouTXmetro]

Wait, I'm talking about the rotation off the coast of Merida. You can clearly see low level clouds moving south to the west and a rotation in that entire ball of convection.

[Air Force Met]

AFM,
Where do you see the center of circulation? About 23N / 89.3 or so?

Just want to see if I'm looking at the right thing.

Yeah...in there somewhere...maybe a tab further south...but that's within about 20nm or so.

[wxman57]

I'm estimating 22.9N/89.2W

[Air Force Met]

I'm estimating 22.9N/89.2W

I'll buy that...

[Agua]

Thanks guys. That's the swirling I was looking at.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I am not going to debate the direction of movement (wnw), but has anyone noticed the shear looks to be lessening to the SW and the storms to the NE look to be finally trying to wrap around to the north of the system with another burst to the NW of the sysytem. Could this possibly be the beginning of a moderate rate of strengthening?

[bevgo]

With recon heading in now we should know more soon I hope. To my untrained eye TD3 sure looks better than earlier this AM.