Models further east with each run....

[Guest]

and we dont even have a fix on where the center is in the gulf. Since it is clearly formed further right than the models initialization, one only has to do the math and see SE LA. and MS. your under the gun.

http://weather.net-waves.com/model.php

[Ivanhater]

i agree frederic, seems like the trend is moving toward out area

[HouTXmetro]

Where are the models initiating the storm?

[Stratosphere747]

Actually they trended more west this morning, but of course that has before whatever center there may be reformed north.

The trend is still towards the west with a turn towards the north.

[HouTXmetro]

Actually they trended more west this morning, but of course that has before whatever center there may be reformed north.

The trend is still towards the west with a turn towards the north.

Maybe I'm -removed- but I have gut feeling this is a SETX event. The only question to me is which direction the storm will appoach. From the S, SW, or SE?

[Ivanhater]

the problem is we dont know where she is going..this is certainly not an open and shut storm..everyone along the gulfcoast should closely monitor this storm

[southerngale]

Actually they trended more west this morning, but of course that has before whatever center there may be reformed north.

The trend is still towards the west with a turn towards the north.

Maybe I'm -removed- but I have gut feeling this is a SETX event. The only question to me is which direction the storm will appoach. From the S, SW, or SE?

Well, it's not really -removed- when NHC has you in the middle of the cone! Of course, that could all change soon.

[gulfcoastdave]

I agree. Until the storm is in the GOM and we know the location of the center , all bets are off.

We should know by this evening where the new center is located and where the storm might be heading.

[stormie_skies]

Frederic.....your model plot map isnt working for me....

As far as the models trending east goes ... I don't know if all the other maps I have seen on here are outdated, but I have yet to see a set of model plots that has any kind of consistancy whatsoever. They dont seem to be initializing very well on this system to begin with (prolly due to justifiable uncertainty about the location of the center), and the ones that have latched on are taking it anywhere from New Orleans to Mexico.

I'm not saying that this thing couldn't go further east than was originally thought, depending on where the center of the storm ends up. But I am having a hard time seeing where so many on this board are getting the idea that this could logically be a MS/AL/FL panhandle event....

[Sean in New Orleans]

I think you were right, Frederic, with the center change earlier. It was mentioned on our noon news here and our local met described a split center that, actually had two centers. It's getting it's act together now with the new center, it appears.

[HurryKane]

Frederic.....your model plot map isnt working for me....

DON'T Try this: http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_96.gif

edited to add: curses! foiled again.

[stormie_skies]

Thank you, HurryKane ....that one works perfectly.

But I don't see any models taking this thing any further east than western LA .... so again.....maybe I am easily confused.... but Frederic, where are you getting a strong eastern trend from?

[Stratosphere747]

That model is from yesterday....

[AL Chili Pepper]

That's an old chart.

[stormie_skies]

OK....that makes sense.....is this one todays?

[Agua]

Try this for TD 3, rather than 96L:

[LSU2001]

or this,

[HurryKane]

That's an old chart.

I R Dumn. Thanks for catching the goof

[Ivanhater]

OMG! are those the new model runs?

[Ixolib]

...and things get interestinger and interestinger.