UNOFFICIAL...Three Forecast 2...big change

[ncweatherwizard]

Quote Storm2K:

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Quote Nencweather.com:
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Forecast 2:

http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... three.html

Big change in intensity; I've dropped this to a 55/60kt tropical storm at landfall on Thursday. Of course, the exact track remains a little iffy, and if the centers can become stacked sooner (i.e. shear relaxes), we could see some significant intensification for awhile. In other words, the general forecast idea is confident, but to nail this down exactly, we need a little more time.

[Ixolib]

Is the dry air to the northwest impacting your forecast as well? Seems "timing" is your biggest influence on the change.

[ncweatherwizard]

Good question.

I've been thinking about that dry air for the past day or so. I think that the organization of the storm once it reaches 25N or so will determine how much effect that dry air has. Personally, I don't think it will weaken the storm, but maybe hinder some intensification. I didn't specifically mention the dry air because I don't think it will have a huge effect on the system, but if I were sure that the dry air would have no effect on the system, you would see me allow for a little more intensification. The problem will be seen (or not) once the storm reaches northward--if the southwest shear persists or if the system fails to organize, then the dry air may become entrained in the center from the west and southwest.

In other words (I tend to be longwinded )...yes, in the back of my mind, the dry air did keep this forecast at tropical storm intensity.

[Ixolib]

Good question.

I've been thinking about that dry air for the past day or so. I think that the organization of the storm once it reaches 25N or so will determine how much effect that dry air has. Personally, I don't think it will weaken the storm, but maybe hinder some intensification. I didn't specifically mention the dry air because I don't think it will have a huge effect on the system, but if I were sure that the dry air would have no effect on the system, you would see me allow for a little more intensification. The problem will be seen (or not) once the storm reaches northward--if the southwest shear persists or if the system fails to organize, then the dry air may become entrained in the center from the west and southwest.

In other words (I tend to be longwinded )...yes, in the back of my mind, the dry air did keep this forecast at tropical storm intensity.

Great answer - long-winded or not!! Thanks!!