Recon Reports for Cindy

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Derek Ortt

#41 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Jul 04, 2005 3:14 pm

they're finding a surface trough with no center. Unless we see some reports to the contrary, this may be killed off very soon
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Hurricaneman
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#42 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Jul 04, 2005 3:16 pm

There is a possibility the is no center
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#43 Postby feederband » Mon Jul 04, 2005 3:18 pm

There not seeing much .....
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#44 Postby Air Force Met » Mon Jul 04, 2005 3:18 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:they're finding a surface trough with no center. Unless we see some reports to the contrary, this may be killed off very soon


They did find some SSW sfc winds...but it resembles a sharp trof...or VERY broad area of low pressure. Doubt we get a vortex outta this.
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#45 Postby tw861 » Mon Jul 04, 2005 3:18 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:they're finding a surface trough with no center. Unless we see some reports to the contrary, this may be killed off very soon


Still looks like at least a MLC near 22.5/89.4 or so.
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#46 Postby Lowpressure » Mon Jul 04, 2005 3:19 pm

How long are they going to stay? Things are moving rather quickly. I would almost expect they cut this one short and head out early a.m.-if necessary.
Last edited by Lowpressure on Mon Jul 04, 2005 3:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#47 Postby skysummit » Mon Jul 04, 2005 3:20 pm

All that noise down there and nothing? I guess it's just a pretty little swirl. :roll:
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Derek Ortt

#48 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Jul 04, 2005 3:21 pm

it should then be killed off and advisories should be written on TD 4 as that clearly is a tropical depression
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#49 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Jul 04, 2005 3:21 pm

Looks like it will be downgraded to a tropical wave
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#50 Postby Wnghs2007 » Mon Jul 04, 2005 3:21 pm

URNT11 KNHC 042021
97779 20084 21225 90300 02800 99005 24232 /0012
49905
RMK AF308 0203A CYCLONE OB 09
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#51 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 04, 2005 3:23 pm

We should haved seen at least one vortex message at this hour but nothing yet suggesting that no closed low is there.
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#52 Postby Wnghs2007 » Mon Jul 04, 2005 3:25 pm

Conditions should still be favorable for redevelopment into a TD if they find this thing has degenerated right?
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#53 Postby senorpepr » Mon Jul 04, 2005 3:25 pm

Storm Name: CYCLONE (03L)
Mission Number: 02
Flight ID: AF308
Observation Number: 09
Time: 2008Z
Latitude: 22.5°N
Longitude: 90.3°W
Location: 186 mi N of Campeche, Mexico
Turbulence: None
Flight condition: Clear
Pressure Altitude: 900 feet
Flight level wind: VRB @ 6 mph
Temperature: 75°F
Dewpoint: 73°F
Weather: Broken Skies
Sea level pressure: 1012 mb
Surface Wind: VRB @ 6 mph
Remarks: None
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#54 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Jul 04, 2005 3:27 pm

conditions are not at all favorable in the GOM if you just throw out the model forecast fields and look at a WV loop.

Any redevleopment would likely be more subtropical due to the shear is the way things are looking now
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#55 Postby Wnghs2007 » Mon Jul 04, 2005 3:27 pm

URNT11 KNHC 042028
97779 20234 20225 89300 02800 21013 24248 /0012
42210
RMK AF308 0203A CYCLONE OB 10
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#56 Postby senorpepr » Mon Jul 04, 2005 3:28 pm

Storm Name: CYCLONE (03L)
Mission Number: 02
Flight ID: AF308
Observation Number: 10
Time: 2023Z
Latitude: 22.5°N
Longitude: 89.3°W
Location: 186 mi WNW of Cancun, Mexico
Turbulence: None
Flight condition: Clear
Pressure Altitude: 900 feet
Flight level wind: SSW (210°) @ 15 mph
Temperature: 75°F
Dewpoint: 75°F
Weather: Rainshowers
Sea level pressure: 1012 mb
Surface Wind: SW (220°) @ 12 mph
Remarks: None
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#57 Postby tw861 » Mon Jul 04, 2005 3:29 pm

Wnghs2007 wrote:URNT11 KNHC 042028
97779 20234 20225 89300 02800 21013 24248 /0012
42210
RMK AF308 0203A CYCLONE OB 10


Here's your west wind
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#58 Postby Sean in New Orleans » Mon Jul 04, 2005 3:30 pm

Yeah...it's not impressive this afternoon..
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#59 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Jul 04, 2005 3:31 pm

Its no more than a broad low
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gkrangers

#60 Postby gkrangers » Mon Jul 04, 2005 3:33 pm

So we went from anticipating a strong hurricane to no more than a tropical wave in less than 24 hours.

Time to start calling TD4 Cindy!
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