Recon Reports for Cindy

[Hurricaneman]

I wont jump the gun on the eastern carribean system

[Hurricaneman]

Its still possible for the gom system to regenerate

[Canebo]

Let's hope at least some rain works it way up to us in Texas

[mikey mike]

Looking at the sat pics it looks like all the moisture is going.......where else,Florida!!

[Steve]

>>Its still possible for the gom system to regenerate

Anyone saying that it won't is most likely wrong. Forget the shear and dry air to the west. That's not that big of a deal for early or late season Gulf development. In fact it's pretty much more the rule than the exception where the bulk of the weather is to the north and especially the east of landfall. With the outflow improving on the east side and some expansion on the west side (into the dryer and cmopeting airmass), I'd lay odds of about 90% chance of classified system at landfall. If the model runs and trends are onto anything, looks like a further east system then I thought last week - say Morgan City to SW Mississippi. I also think the NHC has a pretty good handle on the system and its future intensity.

Steve

[senorpepr]

So we went from anticipating a strong hurricane to no more than a tropical wave in less than 24 hours.

Time to start calling TD4 Cindy!

This is exactly why some of the pro mets get irritated when people start tossing out names to depressions, invest, or waves. Things change and before you know it, you've used the same name to identify three different areas of convection.

It's best to simply call it what it is. TD 03L and Invest 97L. Nothing else until they change intensity and merit a new name.

[mikey mike]

TS watch now--mouth of MS river to Sabine pass

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

Looking at the sat pics it looks like all the moisture is going.......where else,Florida!!

LOL I was just going to say that. Exactly what we need over here. I was actually thinking about what sarcastic remark I should use... LOL

[tw861]

Note the convection going up west and northwest of the center.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

[Nimbus]

The center of the storm is north around 23.4 N 89 W and its slowly winding back up again. We should see a good poof of convection tonight.

[senorpepr]

Storm Name: CYCLONE (03L)
Mission Number: 02
Flight ID: AF308
Observation Number: 12
Time: 2039Z
Latitude: 23.0°N
Longitude: 88.9°W
Location: 188 mi NW of Cancun, Mexico
Turbulence: None
Flight condition: In & out of clouds
Pressure Altitude: 900 feet
Flight level wind: VRB @ 6 mph
Temperature: 72°F
Dewpoint: 72°F
Weather: Rainshowers
Sea level pressure: 1012 mb
Surface Wind: S (180°) @ 12 mph
Remarks: None

[senorpepr]

Storm Name: CYCLONE (03L)
Mission Number: 02
Flight ID: AF308
Observation Number: 11
Time: 2028Z
Latitude: 22.5°N
Longitude: 89.0°W
Location: 170 mi NW of Cancun, Mexico
Turbulence: None
Flight condition: Clear
Pressure Altitude: 900 feet
Flight level wind: SSW (200°) @ 21 mph
Temperature: 73°F
Dewpoint: 73°F
Weather: Rainshowers
Sea level pressure: 1012 mb
Surface Wind: SW (210°) @ 17 mph
Remarks: None

[Ivanhater]

im sorry for the question but i just got back from the 4th of july bbq and im confused, is it still a depression or an open wave? and what is the new forecast and track?

[Hurricaneman]

Its still a depression

[Wnghs2007]

URNT11 KNHC 042121
97779 21184 20252 89709 70100 11019 64643 /5763
RMK AF308 0203A CYCLONE OB 13

25.2 N 89.7 W Latest Update so they are heading back unable to find a center?

[Steve]

IH,

It's a dilemna for the NHC, and they're basing their reasoning on a depression in that a center is reforming. This may or may not be the case, but ultimately, something at the low levels probably will. It's just not going to get all that strong because time isn't there over the long run. And the longer it takes, the lesser the tropical storm it should be at landfall (with the assumption that it probably will spin up after tonight's maximum).

Steve

[senorpepr]

Storm Name: CYCLONE (03L)
Mission Number: 02
Flight ID: AF308
Observation Number: 13
Time: 2118Z
Latitude: 25.2°N
Longitude: 89.7°W
Location: 277 mi S of Grand Isle, Louisana
Turbulence: None
Flight condition: In cloud
Pressure Altitude: 23000 feet
Flight level wind: ESE (110°) @ 22 mph
Temperature: 7°F
Dewpoint: 7°F
Weather: Overcast Skies
400mb height: 25000 feet
Surface Wind: N/A
Remarks: None


The mission is ending... no closed circulation found.

[senorpepr]

Storm Name: CYCLONE (03L)
Mission Number: 02
Flight ID: AF308
Observation Number: 14
Time: 2140Z
Latitude: 27.0°N
Longitude: 89.5°W
Location: 156 mi SSE of Grand Isle, Louisana
Turbulence: None
Flight condition: Clear
Pressure Altitude: 23000 feet
Flight level wind: VRB @ 6 mph
Temperature: 7°F
Dewpoint: 1°F
Weather: Broken Skies
400mb height: 25100 feet
Surface Wind: N/A
Remarks: LAST REPORT.

[Ivanhater]

isnt there another recon for tonight? if so what time?

[senorpepr]

There's a high-level NOAA mission going now and another AF low-level flight will occur later this evening with a takeoff time of 11:30pm EDT.